Charleston Battery v Indy Eleven prediction · USL Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Charleston BatteryDrawIndy Eleven

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Charleston Battery 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Charleston Battery are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Charleston Battery 64%, draw 19%, Indy Eleven 17%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Charleston Battery v Indy ElevenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Charleston Battery win64%

Draw19%

Indy Eleven win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00

RoundGroup stage

VenuePatriots Point Soccer Complex

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Charleston Battery

Indy Eleven

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Charleston Battery	29	+20	50
9	Indy Eleven	29	−5	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · charleston battery winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 04:12 · locked at kick-off

64% The market55%

Us64%

~~Market~~55%

We make Charleston Battery a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Charleston Battery v Indy Eleven~~2.24 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 50 v 34~~2 v 9

~~The market · Charleston Battery win~~55% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Charleston Battery win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charleston Battery win	64%	55%	+9
Draw	19%	23%	−4
Indy Eleven win	17%	22%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	63%	60%	+3
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	79%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	39%	+2
Charleston Battery or draw	83%	78%	+5
Charleston Battery clean sheet	36%	–	–
Indy Eleven clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.8 4.1 2.1 1 8.6 8.7 4.5 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 7.0 7.1 3.7 4 4.0 4.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Charleston Battery down, Indy Eleven across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,566 USL Championship matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 363 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.30 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Charleston Battery at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Indy Eleven away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Charleston Battery, 1.04 for Indy Eleven. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.30

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IND 2–0 CHA · CHA 2–1 IND · IND 1–3 CHA · CHA 5–0 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 12 Sept

CHARLESTON BATTERY

DWWLDW2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

INDY ELEVEN

LLLDLL0–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–4

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	+24	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	+20	50
3	Detroit City	29	+13	50
4	Louisville City	29	+8	46
5	Rhode Island	29	+10	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	+2	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	+1	40
8	Miami FC	30	−10	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	−5	34
10	Birmingham Legion	29	−5	30
11	Loudoun United	29	−11	28
12	Brooklyn	29	−28	21
13	Sporting JAX	29	−44	14