Brooklyn v Birmingham Legion prediction · USL Championship

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 02:00

Brooklyn 1–2 Birmingham Legion BIRMINGHAM LEGION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Birmingham Legion win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.554

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.574

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Birmingham Legion win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Brooklyn v Birmingham Legion
2′Little has changed for our model: Birmingham Legion 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 37–24–40
8′A. Kante scores for Brooklyn on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–20–18
8′We said Birmingham Legion at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 61–20–18
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Brooklyn 1–0 Birmingham Legion · A. Kante
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Birmingham Legion win: 40% at kick-off, 18% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Brooklyn win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Birmingham Legion win 39%)
19′18′: S. Tregarthen on the scoresheet for Birmingham Legion, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–27–38
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Brooklyn 1–1 Birmingham Legion · S. Tregarthen
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Birmingham Legion win: 40% at kick-off, 38% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Gabriel Alves · Brooklyn
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' P. Kavita · Birmingham Legion
45′HALF-TIME Brooklyn 1–1 Birmingham Legion
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brooklyn · On: P. Mangione · Off: J. Klein
46′SECOND HALF Brooklyn 1–1 Birmingham Legion
47′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 30–37–32
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Brooklyn win 62%)
52′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Birmingham Legion · On: S. Ngoma · Off: S. Saucedo
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Birmingham Legion win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
60′We said Birmingham Legion at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 26–46–28
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Brooklyn · On: S. Stojanovic · Off: A. Kante
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Brooklyn · On: R. McLaughlin · Off: T. McNamara
63′Birmingham Legion ahead on 63′ through S. Tregarthen. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Brooklyn 1–2 Birmingham Legion · S. Tregarthen
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Birmingham Legion win: 40% at kick-off, 75% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Birmingham Legion win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 49%)
64′We said Birmingham Legion at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–2 · 5–20–76
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Birmingham Legion · On: R. Williams · Off: R. Damus
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Birmingham Legion · On: P. Vassell · Off: T. Pasher
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' P. Mangione · Brooklyn
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' H. Diop · Birmingham Legion
71′We said Birmingham Legion at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Birmingham Legion win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Birmingham Legion · On: Paterson AJ · Off: H. Diop
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Birmingham Legion · On: S. Shashoua · Off: G. Diarbian
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Brooklyn · On: J. Obregon · Off: M. Pinto
78′We said Birmingham Legion at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–14–85
83′We said Birmingham Legion at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Birmingham Legion win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Brooklyn · On: R. Romeo · Off: R. McLaughlin
89′We said Birmingham Legion at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Brooklyn 1–2 Birmingham Legion
FTBrooklyn 1–2 Birmingham Legion · Birmingham Legion win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Birmingham Legion just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Brooklyn 37%, draw 24%, Birmingham Legion 40%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Brooklyn v Birmingham LegionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Brooklyn win37%

Draw24%

Birmingham Legion win40%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 23:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueMaimonides Park

RefereeE. Garcia

Line-ups

Brooklyn

Birmingham Legion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brooklyn

Birmingham Legion

4Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · USL Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Birmingham Legion	28	−6	27
12	Brooklyn	28	−27	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brooklyn

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lee

5 M. Pinto

92 T. Vancaeyezeele

6 V. Latinovich

3 Gabriel Alves

86 T. Okiyoshi

7 T. McNamara

11 J. Servania

8 J. Klein

56 C. Olney JR

95 A. Kante

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · L. Burns

23 · R. McLaughlin

4 · R. Romeo

27 · P. Mangione

98 · P. Da Silva

19 · S. Stojanovic

29 · J. Obregon

Birmingham Legion

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Koleilat

21 S. Tregarthen

3 P. Kavita

32 H. Diop

11 D. McCartney

6 S. McIllhatton

18 S. Antwi

15 T. Pasher

7 S. Saucedo

19 G. Diarbian

9 R. Damus

Coach · Jay Heaps

Substitutes

12 · T. McMullen

20 · Paterson AJ

16 · P. Vassell

77 · N. Brown

17 · R. Williams

10 · S. Shashoua

81 · S. Ngoma

Our number · birmingham legion winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 02:46 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Birmingham Legion a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brooklyn v Birmingham Legion~~1.50 – 1.57

~~Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 27~~12 v 11

~~The market · Birmingham Legion win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Birmingham Legion win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brooklyn win	37%	36%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Birmingham Legion win	40%	38%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Both teams to score	61%	64%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Brooklyn or draw	60%	62%	−2
Brooklyn clean sheet	21%	–	–
Birmingham Legion clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.7 7.5 5.7 3.0 1 7.2 10.7 8.4 4.4 2 5.2 8.0 6.3 3.3 3 2.6 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brooklyn down, Birmingham Legion across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,564 USL Championship matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: USL Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.3% of games this season, across 361 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brooklyn at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham Legion away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Brooklyn, 1.57 for Birmingham Legion. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BIR 4–0 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in USL Championship this season · since 15 Sept

BROOKLYN

LDLLLW0–4 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 3–2

BIRMINGHAM LEGION

DLWLWD4–4 · 0–4 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026 · USL Championship

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	29	+24	58
2	Charleston Battery	29	+20	50
3	Detroit City	29	+13	50
4	Louisville City	28	+6	43
5	Rhode Island	29	+10	42
6	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	29	+2	42
7	Hartford Athletic	29	+1	40
8	Miami FC	30	−10	36
9	Indy Eleven	29	−5	34
10	Loudoun United	29	−11	28
11	Birmingham Legion	28	−6	27
12	Brooklyn	28	−27	21
13	Sporting JAX	28	−42	14