Washington Spirit W v NJ/NY Gotham FC W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Washington Spirit W 1–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W WASHINGTON SPIRIT W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Washington Spirit W win~~39%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.561

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.668

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Washington Spirit W win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Washington Spirit W 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Washington Spirit W v NJ/NY Gotham FC W
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Washington Spirit W win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Washington Spirit W 0–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Washington Spirit W win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
46′SECOND HALF Washington Spirit W 0–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Washington Spirit W · On: Mélissa Bethi · Off: Leicy Santos
52′We said Washington Spirit W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–48–24
59′We said Washington Spirit W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' NJ/NY Gotham FC W · On: Taryn Torres · Off: Leila Ouahabi
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' NJ/NY Gotham FC W · On: O. Wingate · Off: mandy freeman
62′Washington Spirit W have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 23–57–21
63′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Jaelin Howell · NJ/NY Gotham FC W
69′We said Washington Spirit W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Washington Spirit W win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
71′Lucia Di Guglielmo scores for Washington Spirit W on 70′. 0–0 · 18–66–16
72′We said Washington Spirit W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
72′⚽ GOAL · 70' Washington Spirit W 1–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W · Lucia Di Guglielmo
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Washington Spirit W win: 39% at kick-off, 85% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Washington Spirit W win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' NJ/NY Gotham FC W · On: talia sommer · Off: Guro Reiten
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Washington Spirit W win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
79′We said Washington Spirit W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Washington Spirit W · On: Amenan Joëlle Rosemonde Kouassi · Off: Sofia Cantore
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Washington Spirit W · On: Ashley Hatch · Off: C. Luvanga
86′We said Washington Spirit W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′1–0 at the end. Our 39% on Washington Spirit W comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' NJ/NY Gotham FC W · On: savannah mccaskill · Off: Jaelin Howell
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' NJ/NY Gotham FC W · On: Andrea Demoor Kitahata · Off: Rose Lavelle
FTFULL TIME Washington Spirit W 1–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W
FTWashington Spirit W 1–0 NJ/NY Gotham FC W · Washington Spirit W win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Washington Spirit W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Washington Spirit W 39%, draw 27%, NJ/NY Gotham FC W 34%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Washington Spirit W v NJ/NY Gotham FC WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Washington Spirit W win39%

Draw27%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueAudi Field

Line-ups

Washington Spirit W

4-1-4-1

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Washington Spirit W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

13Days since last match13

Last match: 5 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 4 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Washington Spirit W

4-1-4-1

18 Sandy MacIver

13 L. Di Guglielmo

9 T. Rudd

24 E. Morgan

14 G. Carle

12 A. Sullivan

27 S. Cantore

17 H. Hershfelt

10 L. Santos

2 T. Rodman

25 C. Luvanga

Coach · Adrian Gonzalez

Substitutes

28 · S. Wojdelko

5 · E. Tse

26 · P. Metayer

8 · M. Ngock

7 · M. Bethi

19 · R. Kouassi

16 · Tamara Bolt

11 · C. Martinez Ovando

33 · A. Hatch

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

4-2-3-1

30 A. Berger

22 M. Freeman

27 J. Carter

15 T. Davidson

4 L. Ouahabi

7 J. M. Howell

5 D. O'Sullivan

23 M. Purce

16 R. Lavelle

18 G. Reiten

20 S. Kerr

Coach · Juan Amoros

Substitutes

1 · S. Hogan

8 · T. Torres

25 · M. Speck

13 · S. McCaskill

14 · T. Sommer

28 · T. Boade

10 · J. Shaw

24 · A. Kitahata

29 · O. Wingate

Our number · washington spirit w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Washington Spirit W a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Washington Spirit W v NJ/NY Gotham FC W~~1.14 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 49 v 55~~3 v 1

~~The market · Washington Spirit W win~~34% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Washington Spirit W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Washington Spirit W win	39%	34%	+5
Draw	27%	28%	−1
NJ/NY Gotham FC W win	34%	39%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	49%	−12
Both teams to score	42%	54%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	63%	73%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	18%	29%	−11
Washington Spirit W or draw	66%	61%	+5
Washington Spirit W clean sheet	36%	–	–
NJ/NY Gotham FC W clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 10.4 13.0 6.1 2.2 1 14.0 12.1 6.9 2.4 2 7.3 7.5 3.9 3 2.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Washington Spirit W down, NJ/NY Gotham FC W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 993 NWSL Women matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Washington Spirit W at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). NJ/NY Gotham FC W away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Washington Spirit W, 1.04 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NJN 1–0 WAS · WAS 0–1 NJN · NJN 0–0 WAS · NJN 0–0 WAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W

WWLWLW1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 3–2

NJ/NY GOTHAM FC W

DLWWWD1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	27	+14	55
2	San Diego Wave W	27	+12	51
3	Washington Spirit W	27	+13	49
4	Utah Royals W	27	+9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	+10	44
6	Angel City W	27	+16	43
7	Portland Thorns W	27	+6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	+11	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	+1	40
10	Denver Summit W	27	+8	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	−7	33
12	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
13	Houston Dash W	27	−5	30
14	Bay FC W	27	−14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	−48	17