Utah Royals W v Seattle Reign FC W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 05:01

Utah Royals W 0–0 Seattle Reign FC W UTAH ROYALS W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Utah Royals W win~~41%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.864

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Utah Royals W win at 41%.
2′KICK-OFF Utah Royals W v Seattle Reign FC W
3′Little has changed for our model: Utah Royals W 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–25–35
22′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Jessica Fishlock · Seattle Reign FC W
39′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Jordyn Bugg · Seattle Reign FC W
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Utah Royals W win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Utah Royals W 0–0 Seattle Reign FC W
46′SECOND HALF Utah Royals W 0–0 Seattle Reign FC W
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Utah Royals W win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Seattle Reign FC W · On: Sally Marie Menti · Off: Jessica Fishlock
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Seattle Reign FC W · On: Madison Curry · Off: Ryanne Brown
53′We said Utah Royals W at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–45–26
55′Utah Royals W have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–46–25
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–46–25
64′We said Utah Royals W at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–21
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Utah Royals W · On: Jameese Joseph · Off: C. Brown
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Utah Royals W win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
72′We said Utah Royals W at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Seattle Reign FC W · On: Brittany Ratcliffe · Off: Emeri Adames
78′We said Utah Royals W at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Utah Royals W win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Utah Royals W · On: Brecken Mozingo · Off: Kiana Palacios
83′We said Utah Royals W at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Seattle Reign FC W · On: mia fishel · Off: Nérilia Mondesir
90′We said Utah Royals W at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Utah Royals W · On: Madison Hammond · Off: Ana Tejada Jiménez
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Utah Royals W · On: Miyabi Moriya · Off: paige monaghan
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Utah Royals W win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Utah Royals W 0–0 Seattle Reign FC W
FTUtah Royals W 0–0 Seattle Reign FC W · Utah Royals W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Utah Royals W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Utah Royals W 41%, draw 24%, Seattle Reign FC W 35%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Utah Royals W v Seattle Reign FC WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Utah Royals W win41%

Draw24%

Seattle Reign FC W win35%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 02:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueRio Tinto Stadium

Line-ups

Utah Royals W

4-2-3-1

Seattle Reign FC W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Utah Royals W

Seattle Reign FC W

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 19 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Utah Royals W	28	+7	46
8	Seattle Reign FC W	28	+3	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Utah Royals W

4-2-3-1

1 M. Haught

4 P. Monaghan

8 K. Del Fava

18 K. Riehl

14 Nuria Rábano

17 Ana Tejada

10 N. Miura

5 C. Kizer

16 Courtney Brown

24 C. Lacasse

21 K. Palacios

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · A. Spaanstra

99 · M. Hammond

3 · Jameese Joseph

23 · M. Justus

2 · T. Milazzo

22 · M. Moriya

13 · B. Mozingo

15 · D. Pierre-Louis

6 · Necole Simmonds Kameron

Seattle Reign FC W

4-2-3-1

1 C. Dickey

22 R. Brown

21 P. McClernon

23 J. Bugg

11 S. Huerta

16 A. McCammon

20 S. Meza

7 E. Adames

2 M. Mercado

10 J. Fishlock

30 N. Mondésir

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Holly Ward

24 · M. Curry

19 · M. Fishel

25 · S. Holmes

8 · A. James

14 · E. Mason

17 · S. Menti

38 · C. Miller

13 · B. Ratcliffe

Our number · utah royals w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 02:43 · locked at kick-off

41% The market39%

Us41%

~~Market~~39%

We make Utah Royals W a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Utah Royals W v Seattle Reign FC W~~1.35 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 46 v 43~~6 v 8

~~The market · Utah Royals W win~~39% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Utah Royals W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Utah Royals W win	41%	39%	+2
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Seattle Reign FC W win	35%	34%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	54%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	58%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	26%	35%	−9
Utah Royals W or draw	65%	66%	−1
Utah Royals W clean sheet	30%	–	–
Seattle Reign FC W clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.6%

0123450 6.7 10.6 5.7 2.3 1 11.6 11.3 7.5 3.1 2 7.0 8.3 5.1 2.1 3 3.2 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Utah Royals W down, Seattle Reign FC W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,001 NWSL Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Utah Royals W at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Seattle Reign FC W away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Utah Royals W, 1.22 for Seattle Reign FC W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 02:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SEA 0–3 UTA · SEA 2–1 UTA · UTA 1–4 SEA · UTA 3–0 SEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept

UTAH ROYALS W

LWLWDL1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

SEATTLE REIGN FC W

WLLWLW2–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
5	Angel City W	28	+17	46
6	Utah Royals W	28	+7	46
7	Portland Thorns W	28	+6	44
8	Seattle Reign FC W	28	+3	43
9	North Carolina Courage W	28	+10	42
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
11	Orlando Pride W	28	−6	36
12	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
13	Houston Dash W	28	−6	30
14	Bay FC W	28	−14	27
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	28	−50	17