Utah Royals W v Kansas City W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

Utah Royals W 0–2 Kansas City W KANSAS CITY W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kansas City W win~~47%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.433

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.489

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kansas City W win at 47%.
3′Much as we predicted: Kansas City W was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 31–22–46
3′KICK-OFF Utah Royals W v Kansas City W
23′We published Kansas City W at 47%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Utah Royals W 0–1 Kansas City W
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Kansas City W win: 47% at kick-off, 70% now
25′21′: Haley Hopkins on the scoresheet for Kansas City W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 9–19–71
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Narumi Miura · Utah Royals W
45′HALF-TIME Utah Royals W 0–1 Kansas City W
45′SECOND HALF Utah Royals W 0–1 Kansas City W
52′We published Kansas City W at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Kansas City W win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Utah Royals W · On: Jameese Joseph · Off: Brecken Mozingo
67′We published Kansas City W at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kansas City W · On: Croix Bethune · Off: Débora Cristiane de Oliveira
76′We published Kansas City W at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
77′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Ana Tejada Jiménez · Utah Royals W
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Kansas City W win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kansas City W · On: A. White · Off: Michelle Ivory Cooper
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kansas City W · On: Bayley Feist · Off: Vanessa Di Bernardo
82′We published Kansas City W at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Utah Royals W · On: C. Brown · Off: Narumi Miura
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Utah Royals W · On: tatumn milazzo · Off: paige monaghan
87′🟨 YELLOW · 82' C. Brown · Utah Royals W
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Utah Royals W · On: Madison Hammond · Off: Ana Tejada Jiménez
88′We published Kansas City W at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Utah Royals W · On: A. Spaanstra · Off: Cloé Lacasse
90′Full time, 0–2. We called Kansas City W at 47% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' Kayla Lynne Sharples · Kansas City W
93′We published Kansas City W at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Utah Royals W 0–2 Kansas City W
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Kansas City W win: 47% at kick-off, over 99% now
94′Kansas City W ahead on 90′ through Haley Hopkins. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Utah Royals W 0–2 Kansas City W
FTUtah Royals W 0–2 Kansas City W · Kansas City W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kansas City W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Utah Royals W 32%, draw 22%, Kansas City W 47%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Utah Royals W v Kansas City WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Utah Royals W win32%

Draw22%

Kansas City W win47%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueRio Tinto Stadium

Line-ups

Utah Royals W

4-2-3-1

Kansas City W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Utah Royals W

Kansas City W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Utah Royals W	27	+9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	+10	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Utah Royals W

4-2-3-1

1 M. McGlynn

4 P. Cronin

8 K. Del Fava

18 K. Riehl

14 N. Rabano

17 A. Tejada Jimenez

10 N. Miura

13 B. Mozingo

5 C. Delzer

24 C. Lacasse

21 K. Palacios

Coach · Jimmy Coenraets

Substitutes

23 · M. Justus

2 · T. Milazzo

6 · K. N. Simmonds

99 · M. Hammond

15 · D. Pierre-Louis

3 · J. Joseph

30 · A. Spaanstra

16 · C. Brown

71 · A. Swensen

Kansas City W

4-2-3-1

23 Lorena

2 L. Rouse

24 G. Robinson

27 K. Sharples

18 I. Rodriguez

10 L. LaBonta

16 V. DiBernardo

17 M. Cooper

99 Debinha

6 T. Chawinga

13 H. Hopkins

Coach · Chris Armas

Substitutes

1 · M. Jordan

31 · K. Scott

28 · M. Nyadjou

44 · K. Suliafu

22 · B. Feist

8 · C. Bethune

55 · P. Hocking

3 · A. White

53 · I. Gemelli

Our number · kansas city w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market43%

Us47%

~~Market~~43%

We make Kansas City W a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Utah Royals W v Kansas City W~~1.33 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 46 v 44~~4 v 5

~~The market · Kansas City W win~~43% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kansas City W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Utah Royals W win	32%	31%	+1
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Kansas City W win	47%	43%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	56%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
Utah Royals W or draw	53%	57%	−4
Utah Royals W clean sheet	19%	–	–
Kansas City W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.2 9.4 7.0 3.9 1 7.7 10.0 9.0 5.1 2.2 2 4.4 7.2 6.0 3.3 3 3.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Utah Royals W down, Kansas City W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 993 NWSL Women matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Utah Royals W at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kansas City W away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Utah Royals W, 1.67 for Kansas City W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 23:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KAN 2–1 UTA · UTA 0–1 KAN · KAN 3–0 UTA · KAN 1–0 UTA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug

UTAH ROYALS W

WLWLWD2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

KANSAS CITY W

WWDLWW3–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
3	San Diego Wave W	27	+12	51
4	Utah Royals W	27	+9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	+10	44
6	Angel City W	27	+16	43
7	Portland Thorns W	27	+6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	+11	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	+1	40
10	Denver Summit W	27	+8	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	−7	33
12	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
13	Houston Dash W	27	−5	30
14	Bay FC W	27	−14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	−48	17