San Diego Wave W v Boston Legacy W prediction · NWSL Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Diego Wave WDrawBoston Legacy W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · San Diego Wave W 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Diego Wave W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Diego Wave W 53%, draw 22%, Boston Legacy W 25%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on San Diego Wave W v Boston Legacy WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Diego Wave W win53%

Draw22%

Boston Legacy W win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueSnapdragon Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Diego Wave W

Boston Legacy W

8Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 17 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
13	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san diego wave w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make San Diego Wave W a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Diego Wave W v Boston Legacy W~~1.72 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 54 v 32~~2 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Diego Wave W win	53%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Boston Legacy W win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
San Diego Wave W or draw	75%	–	–
San Diego Wave W clean sheet	34%	–	–
Boston Legacy W clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.5%

0123450 5.2 7.6 3.6 1 11.5 10.2 6.1 2.2 2 8.9 9.5 5.2 3 5.1 5.5 3.0 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Diego Wave W down, Boston Legacy W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,001 NWSL Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Diego Wave W at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Boston Legacy W away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for San Diego Wave W, 1.09 for Boston Legacy W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BOS 0–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept

SAN DIEGO WAVE W

LWWWWW0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

BOSTON LEGACY W

WWLLWW2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
5	Utah Royals W	29	+7	47
6	Portland Thorns W	29	+7	47
7	Angel City W	28	+17	46
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	+3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	+9	42
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
11	Orlando Pride W	28	−6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	−4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
14	Bay FC W	28	−14	27
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	−52	17