Portland Thorns W v North Carolina Courage W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 05:30

Portland Thorns W 1–0 North Carolina Courage W PORTLAND THORNS W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Portland Thorns W win~~43%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.591

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Portland Thorns W win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Portland Thorns W was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–21–36
1′KICK-OFF Portland Thorns W v North Carolina Courage W
11′We published Portland Thorns W at 43%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
11′A goal for Portland Thorns W on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Portland Thorns W 1–0 North Carolina Courage W
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Portland Thorns W win: 43% at kick-off, 65% now
11′GOAL DISALLOWED · 11' Portland Thorns W
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Portland Thorns W win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Portland Thorns W
45′HALF-TIME Portland Thorns W 0–0 North Carolina Courage W
46′SECOND HALF Portland Thorns W 0–0 North Carolina Courage W
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Portland Thorns W win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Portland Thorns W win 35%)
55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–41–28
56′We said Portland Thorns W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–41–27
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Ana Beatriz Gomes Lopes · North Carolina Courage W
60′We published Portland Thorns W at 43%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–20–6
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Portland Thorns W 1–0 North Carolina Courage W
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Portland Thorns W win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Portland Thorns W win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 45%)
61′We published Portland Thorns W at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Portland Thorns W
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Portland Thorns W win: 43% at kick-off, 29% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Portland Thorns W win 74%)
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Portland Thorns W 1–0 North Carolina Courage W · Marie·Muller
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Portland Thorns W win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Portland Thorns W win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 45%)
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' North Carolina Courage W · On: Gianna Rose Paul · Off: Ana Beatriz Gomes Lopes
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Portland Thorns W · On: Mary Alice Vignola · Off: Isabella Obaze
71′We published Portland Thorns W at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Portland Thorns W win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
78′We published Portland Thorns W at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' North Carolina Courage W · On: Allyson schlegel · Off: Evelyn Ijeh
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Riley Jackson · North Carolina Courage W
83′We published Portland Thorns W at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Portland Thorns W win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' North Carolina Courage W · On: Vilde Risa · Off: Riley Jackson
89′We published Portland Thorns W at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' North Carolina Courage W · On: hannah betfort · Off: Dani Weatherholt Corrected
FTFULL TIME Portland Thorns W 1–0 North Carolina Courage W
FTPortland Thorns W 1–0 North Carolina Courage W · Portland Thorns W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Portland Thorns W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portland Thorns W 43%, draw 21%, North Carolina Courage W 36%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Portland Thorns W v North Carolina Courage WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Portland Thorns W win43%

Draw21%

North Carolina Courage W win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 03:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueProvidence Park

Line-ups

Portland Thorns W

4-4-2

North Carolina Courage W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portland Thorns W

North Carolina Courage W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Portland Thorns W	28	+6	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	28	+10	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Portland Thorns W

4-4-2

18 M. Arnold

4 Carolyn Lisette Calzada

5 I. Obaze

24 J. Perry

2 R. Reyes

23 M. Müller

20 N. Nijstad

21 J. Fleming

7 Caiya Hanks

66 R. Turner

19 P. Tordin

Coach · Robert Vilahamn (Karlsson)

Substitutes

15 · S. Harvey

27 · J. Dufour

6 · C. Bogere

16 · S. Hiatt

88 · V. Loboa

41 · Renee Lyles

29 · Mallie McKenzie

35 · M. Messner

25 · M. Vignola

North Carolina Courage W

4-3-3

1 K. Sheridan

13 R. Williams

4 N. Jacobs

18 U. Shiragaki

17 D. Weatherholt

16 R. Jackson

20 S. Koyama

19 E. Parkinson

21 Ana Beatriz Gomes Lopes

10 E. Ijeh

2 A. Sanchez

Coach · S. Nahas

Substitutes

33 · H. Betfort

26 · V. Bøe Risa

36 · E. Hase

6 · I. Garner

23 · G. Paul

35 · A. Schlegel

12 · N. Staude

– · M. White

14 · C. Wickenheiser

Our number · portland thorns w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market38%

Us43%

~~Market~~38%

We make Portland Thorns W a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portland Thorns W v North Carolina Courage W~~1.70 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 44 v 42~~7 v 9

~~The market · Portland Thorns W win~~38% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Portland Thorns W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portland Thorns W win	43%	38%	+5
Draw	21%	24%	−3
North Carolina Courage W win	36%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	64%	−2
Both teams to score	62%	65%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Portland Thorns W or draw	64%	62%	+2
Portland Thorns W clean sheet	22%	–	–
North Carolina Courage W clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.2 7.1 4.7 2.4 1 7.8 9.3 7.7 3.9 2 5.8 8.6 6.5 3.3 3 3.3 4.9 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portland Thorns W down, North Carolina Courage W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,001 NWSL Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Portland Thorns W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). North Carolina Courage W away: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Portland Thorns W, 1.53 for North Carolina Courage W. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 02:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NOR 2–2 POR · NOR 1–1 POR · POR 0–0 NOR · POR 1–0 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 6 Sept

PORTLAND THORNS W

LDWDLD1–2 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 2–2

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W

WLLLWL6–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
5	Angel City W	28	+17	46
6	Utah Royals W	28	+7	46
7	Portland Thorns W	28	+6	44
8	Seattle Reign FC W	28	+3	43
9	North Carolina Courage W	28	+10	42
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
11	Orlando Pride W	28	−6	36
12	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
13	Houston Dash W	28	−6	30
14	Bay FC W	28	−14	27
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	28	−50	17