Orlando Pride W v NJ/NY Gotham FC W prediction · NWSL Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Orlando Pride WDrawNJ/NY Gotham FC W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · NJ/NY Gotham FC W 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NJ/NY Gotham FC W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orlando Pride W 34%, draw 26%, NJ/NY Gotham FC W 40%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Orlando Pride W v NJ/NY Gotham FC WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Orlando Pride W win34%

Draw26%

NJ/NY Gotham FC W win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueExploria Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orlando Pride W

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 17 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nj/ny gotham fc w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market50%

Us40%

~~Market~~50%

We make NJ/NY Gotham FC W a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orlando Pride W v NJ/NY Gotham FC W~~1.06 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 36 v 55~~11 v 1

~~The market · NJ/NY Gotham FC W win~~50% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NJ/NY Gotham FC W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orlando Pride W win	34%	25%	+9
Draw	26%	25%	+1
NJ/NY Gotham FC W win	40%	50%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	39%	56%	−17
Both teams to score	44%	57%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	65%	77%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	19%	36%	−17
Orlando Pride W or draw	60%	50%	+10
Orlando Pride W clean sheet	31%	–	–
NJ/NY Gotham FC W clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.5 13.7 7.5 3.0 1 12.3 11.9 7.8 3.1 2 5.9 6.9 4.1 3 2.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orlando Pride W down, NJ/NY Gotham FC W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,005 NWSL Women matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orlando Pride W at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). NJ/NY Gotham FC W away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Orlando Pride W, 1.20 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NJN 0–0 ORL · ORL 0–1 NJN · ORL 0–2 NJN · NJN 0–2 ORL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 6 Sept

ORLANDO PRIDE W

WDLWLW3–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

NJ/NY GOTHAM FC W

LWWWDL0–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Angel City W	29	+19	49
5	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
6	Utah Royals W	29	+7	47
7	Portland Thorns W	29	+7	47
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	+3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	+9	42
10	Denver Summit W	29	+12	41
11	Orlando Pride W	28	−6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	−4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
14	Bay FC W	29	−16	27
15	Racing Louisville W	29	−22	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	−52	17