North Carolina Courage W v San Diego Wave W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 02:30

North Carolina Courage W 1–2 San Diego Wave W NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said North Carolina Courage W win~~44%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.681

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said North Carolina Courage W win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: North Carolina Courage W 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
1′KICK-OFF North Carolina Courage W v San Diego Wave W
7′San Diego Wave W ahead on 4′ through Melanie Barcenas. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–23–57
7′⚽ GOAL · 4' North Carolina Courage W 0–1 San Diego Wave W · Melanie Barcenas (assist Lia Eugenia Godfrey)
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' North Carolina Courage W win: 44% at kick-off, 20% now
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' San Diego Wave W win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was North Carolina Courage W win 20%)
8′We said North Carolina Courage W at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–23–57
10′We said North Carolina Courage W at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
28′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Kennedy Wesley · San Diego Wave W
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–61
32′We said North Carolina Courage W at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' North Carolina Courage W win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
45′HALF-TIME North Carolina Courage W 0–1 San Diego Wave W
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' North Carolina Courage W win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
49′SECOND HALF North Carolina Courage W 0–1 San Diego Wave W
51′We said North Carolina Courage W at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
56′Trinity Byars scores for San Diego Wave W on 52′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
56′⚽ GOAL · 52' North Carolina Courage W 0–2 San Diego Wave W · Trinity Byars (assist Gia Corley)
56′SUBSTITUTION · 53' North Carolina Courage W · On: Ana Beatriz Gomes Lopes · Off: Gianna Rose Paul
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' North Carolina Courage W win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
62′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Natalie Jacobs · North Carolina Courage W
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Diego Wave W · On: Laurina Fazer · Off: Lia Eugenia Godfrey
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' San Diego Wave W · On: Ludmila Da Silva · Off: Trinity Byars
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' North Carolina Courage W · On: Vilde Risa · Off: Evelyn Ijeh
77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' North Carolina Courage W · On: Ella Hase · Off: Felicitas·Rauch
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Diego Wave W · On: Barbara Bonansea · Off: Melanie Barcenas
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' San Diego Wave W · On: Laila Harbert · Off: Kimmi Ascanio
87′83′: Vilde Risa on the scoresheet for North Carolina Courage W, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–93
87′⚽ GOAL · 83' North Carolina Courage W 1–2 San Diego Wave W · Vilde Risa (assist Ashley Sanchez)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' San Diego Wave W · On: Brooklyn Jean Courtnall · Off: Gia Corley
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' North Carolina Courage W · On: Carly Wickenheiser · Off: Natalie Jacobs
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' North Carolina Courage W · On: hannah betfort · Off: Érica Meg Parkinson
88′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–94
94′We said North Carolina Courage W at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–2–98
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' North Carolina Courage W win: 44% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME North Carolina Courage W 1–2 San Diego Wave W
FTNorth Carolina Courage W 1–2 San Diego Wave W · North Carolina Courage W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

North Carolina Courage W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: North Carolina Courage W 44%, draw 23%, San Diego Wave W 34%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on North Carolina Courage W v San Diego Wave WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

North Carolina Courage W win44%

Draw23%

San Diego Wave W win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueWakeMed Soccer Park

Line-ups

North Carolina Courage W

4-3-3

San Diego Wave W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

North Carolina Courage W

San Diego Wave W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	San Diego Wave W	27	+12	51
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	+11	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

North Carolina Courage W

4-3-3

1 K. Sheridan

13 R. Williams

4 N. Jacobs

18 U. Shiragaki

11 F. Rauch

16 R. Jackson

20 S. Koyama

19 E. Parkinson

23 G. Paul

10 E. Ijeh

2 A. Sanchez

Coach · Mak Lind

Substitutes

99 · M. White

12 · N. Staude

17 · D. Weatherholt

14 · C. Wickenheiser

26 · V. Boe Risa

6 · I. Garner

21 · Bia

33 · H. Betfort

36 · E. Hase

San Diego Wave W

4-3-3

12 S. Panos

16 A. D. Van Zanten

2 K. Wesley

14 K. McNabb

75 P. Morroni

10 K. Dali

8 K. Ascanio

11 G. Corley

7 M. Barcenas

15 T. Byars

22 L. E. Godfrey

Coach · Jonas Eidevall

Substitutes

31 · D. Haracic

6 · B. Courtnall

23 · N. Harrison

4 · L. Harbert

18 · L. Fazer

19 · T. Wynalda

21 · B. Bonansea

81 · Gabi Portilho

17 · Ludmila

Our number · north carolina courage w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market38%

Us44%

~~Market~~38%

We make North Carolina Courage W a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · North Carolina Courage W v San Diego Wave W~~1.54 – 1.32

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 42 v 51~~8 v 3

~~The market · North Carolina Courage W win~~38% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · North Carolina Courage W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
North Carolina Courage W win	44%	38%	+6
Draw	23%	26%	−3
San Diego Wave W win	34%	36%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	59%	−5
Both teams to score	56%	62%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
North Carolina Courage W or draw	66%	64%	+2
North Carolina Courage W clean sheet	27%	–	–
San Diego Wave W clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.9 8.7 5.0 2.2 1 9.9 10.5 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.8 5.7 2.5 3 3.5 4.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+North Carolina Courage W down, San Diego Wave W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 993 NWSL Women matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

North Carolina Courage W at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). San Diego Wave W away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for North Carolina Courage W, 1.32 for San Diego Wave W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–1 NOR · NOR 0–0 SAN · SAN 5–2 NOR · NOR 2–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W

LWLLLW2–3 · 6–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

SAN DIEGO WAVE W

WLWWWW3–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
3	San Diego Wave W	27	+12	51
4	Utah Royals W	27	+9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	+10	44
6	Angel City W	27	+16	43
7	Portland Thorns W	27	+6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	+11	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	+1	40
10	Denver Summit W	27	+8	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	−7	33
12	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
13	Houston Dash W	27	−5	30
14	Bay FC W	27	−14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	−48	17