Kansas City W v Washington Spirit W prediction · NWSL Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kansas City WDrawWashington Spirit W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kansas City W 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kansas City W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kansas City W 48%, draw 23%, Washington Spirit W 29%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Kansas City W v Washington Spirit WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kansas City W win48%

Draw23%

Washington Spirit W win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueCPKC Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kansas City W

Washington Spirit W

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kansas city w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Kansas City W a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kansas City W v Washington Spirit W~~1.60 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 47 v 52~~4 v 3

~~The market · Kansas City W win~~50% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kansas City W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kansas City W win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Washington Spirit W win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	55%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Kansas City W or draw	71%	75%	−4
Kansas City W clean sheet	31%	–	–
Washington Spirit W clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 8.5 4.4 1 11.1 10.6 6.8 2.7 2 7.9 9.2 5.4 2.1 3 4.2 4.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kansas City W down, Washington Spirit W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,005 NWSL Women matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.0% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kansas City W at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Washington Spirit W away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Kansas City W, 1.18 for Washington Spirit W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WAS 4–0 KAN · KAN 0–0 WAS · WAS 0–2 KAN · KAN 3–0 WAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept

KANSAS CITY W

WDLWWW2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 4–1 · 5–1 · 2–0

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W

WLWLWW2–1 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
5	Utah Royals W	29	+7	47
6	Portland Thorns W	29	+7	47
7	Angel City W	28	+17	46
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	+3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	+9	42
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
11	Orlando Pride W	28	−6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	−4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
14	Bay FC W	28	−14	27
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	−52	17