Houston Dash W v Orlando Pride W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31

Houston Dash W 1–2 Orlando Pride W ORLANDO PRIDE W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orlando Pride W win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.562

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.500

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orlando Pride W win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Orlando Pride W 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 37–24–39
1′KICK-OFF Houston Dash W v Orlando Pride W
17′Luana Bertolucci Paixão scores for Orlando Pride W on 16′. 0–0 · 35–29–37
17′We said Orlando Pride W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 13–22–65
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Houston Dash W 0–1 Orlando Pride W · Luana Bertolucci Paixão (penalty)
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Orlando Pride W win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 11–22–67
32′Orlando Pride W ahead on 31′ through Solai Washington. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–90
32′We said Orlando Pride W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Houston Dash W 0–2 Orlando Pride W · Solai Washington
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Orlando Pride W win: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
45′HALF-TIME Houston Dash W 0–2 Orlando Pride W
46′SECOND HALF Houston Dash W 0–2 Orlando Pride W
48′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Paige Nielsen · Houston Dash W
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Houston Dash W · On: Kate Louis Faasse · Off: Clarissa Larisey
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Houston Dash W · On: Linda Ullmark · Off: miljana ivanovic
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Houston Dash W · On: khyah harper · Off: Kalyssa van Zanten
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Orlando Pride W · On: Ally Lemos · Off: Luana Bertolucci Paixão
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Orlando Pride W · On: Julie Doyle · Off: Kerry Abello
56′We said Orlando Pride W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–2 · 5–20–74
56′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 5–20–74
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Houston Dash W 1–2 Orlando Pride W
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Orlando Pride W win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
58′danielle colaprico scores for Houston Dash W on 55′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–75
59′We said Orlando Pride W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Houston Dash W · On: Cate Hardin · Off: danielle colaprico
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Orlando Pride W win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
69′We said Orlando Pride W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
71′We said Orlando Pride W at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 18–62–19
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Houston Dash W 2–2 Orlando Pride W
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Orlando Pride W win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Orlando Pride W win 19%)
72′GOAL DISALLOWED · 72' Houston Dash W
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Orlando Pride W win: 39% at kick-off, 82% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Orlando Pride W win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Orlando Pride W · On: S Lekven · Off: Solai Washington
76′We said Orlando Pride W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Orlando Pride W · On: Lizbeth Jacqueline Ovalle Munoz · Off: Angelina Alonso Costantino
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Orlando Pride W win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Houston Dash W · On: Lisa Boattin · Off: Allysha Chapman
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Orlando Pride W · On: Nicole Payne · Off: S Lekven
89′We said Orlando Pride W at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–4–95
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Orlando Pride W win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Houston Dash W 1–2 Orlando Pride W
FTHouston Dash W 1–2 Orlando Pride W · Orlando Pride W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Orlando Pride W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Houston Dash W 37%, draw 24%, Orlando Pride W 39%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Houston Dash W v Orlando Pride WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Houston Dash W win37%

Draw24%

Orlando Pride W win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueBBVA Compass Stadium

Line-ups

Houston Dash W

4-2-3-1

Orlando Pride W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Houston Dash W

Orlando Pride W

14Days since last match15

Last match: 5 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 3 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Orlando Pride W	27	−7	33
13	Houston Dash W	27	−5	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Houston Dash W

4-2-3-1

1 J. Campbell

8 N. Hammond

14 P. K. Nielsen

4 L. Klenke

2 A. Chapman

19 M. Graham

24 D. Colaprico

12 K. van Zanten

22 K. Rader

47 M. Ivanovic

9 C. Larisey

Coach · Jaime Frias

Substitutes

40 · C. Delisle

27 · L. Boattin

99 · J. Brewster

18 · C. Hardin

13 · S. Schmidt

17 · S. Puntigam

30 · L. Ullmark

23 · K. Faasse

34 · K. Harper

Orlando Pride W

4-2-3-1

77 C. Morche

21 O. Hernandez

12 C. Dyke

4 Rafaelle Souza

5 H. Mace

7 Angelina

8 Luana Bertolucci

29 S. Washington

2 H. McCutcheon

25 K. Abello

10 Marta

Coach · Yolanda Thomas

Substitutes

31 · C. Martin

41 · H. Anderson

3 · K. Nadaner

23 · N. Payne

6 · A. Lemos

28 · S. Yates

22 · S. Lekven

20 · J. Doyle

13 · L. Ovalle

Our number · orlando pride w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Orlando Pride W a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Houston Dash W v Orlando Pride W~~1.26 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 33~~13 v 11

~~The market · Orlando Pride W win~~42% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Orlando Pride W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Houston Dash W win	37%	32%	+5
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Orlando Pride W win	39%	42%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Both teams to score	51%	60%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	71%	78%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	37%	−11
Houston Dash W or draw	61%	58%	+3
Houston Dash W clean sheet	27%	–	–
Orlando Pride W clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.7 11.2 6.6 2.9 1 10.8 11.3 8.1 3.6 2 6.1 7.8 5.1 2.3 3 2.6 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Houston Dash W down, Orlando Pride W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 997 NWSL Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Houston Dash W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Orlando Pride W away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Houston Dash W, 1.31 for Orlando Pride W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ORL 3–1 HOU · HOU 1–1 ORL · ORL 1–0 HOU · ORL 3–1 HOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug

HOUSTON DASH W

LLLWDL0–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

ORLANDO PRIDE W

LWDLWL1–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
5	Angel City W	28	+17	46
6	Utah Royals W	28	+7	46
7	Portland Thorns W	27	+6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	28	+10	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	+1	40
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	−7	33
12	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
13	Houston Dash W	27	−5	30
14	Bay FC W	27	−14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	−48	17