Denver Summit W v Racing Louisville W prediction · NWSL Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Denver Summit WDrawRacing Louisville W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Denver Summit W 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Denver Summit W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Denver Summit W 54%, draw 20%, Racing Louisville W 26%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Denver Summit W v Racing Louisville WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Denver Summit W win54%

Draw20%

Racing Louisville W win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueCentennial Stadium

RefereeBrad Jensen

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Denver Summit W

Racing Louisville W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 17 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · denver summit w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

54% The market67%

Us54%

~~Market~~67%

We make Denver Summit W a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Denver Summit W v Racing Louisville W~~1.97 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 38 v 24~~10 v 15

~~The market · Denver Summit W win~~67% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Denver Summit W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Denver Summit W win	54%	67%	−13
Draw	20%	19%	+1
Racing Louisville W win	26%	14%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Both teams to score	61%	57%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	41%	48%	−7
Denver Summit W or draw	74%	86%	−12
Denver Summit W clean sheet	28%	–	–
Racing Louisville W clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.1 5.9 3.2 1 8.5 8.9 6.2 2.7 2 7.5 9.4 6.1 2.6 3 4.9 6.2 4.0 4 2.4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Denver Summit W down, Racing Louisville W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,001 NWSL Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Denver Summit W at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Racing Louisville W away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Denver Summit W, 1.29 for Racing Louisville W. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RAC 0–1 DEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept

DENVER SUMMIT W

DDWLWL3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 2–3

RACING LOUISVILLE W

LLLLDL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
5	Utah Royals W	29	+7	47
6	Portland Thorns W	29	+7	47
7	Angel City W	28	+17	46
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	+3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	+9	42
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
11	Orlando Pride W	28	−6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	−4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
14	Bay FC W	28	−14	27
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	−52	17