Denver Summit W v Angel City W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31

Denver Summit W 2–3 Angel City W DENVER SUMMIT W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Denver Summit W win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.661

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.746

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Denver Summit W win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Denver Summit W was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–35
1′KICK-OFF Denver Summit W v Angel City W
4′Melissa Kossler scores for Denver Summit W on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–20–15
4′We published Denver Summit W at 43%. Our model now makes it 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–15
4′⚽ GOAL · 2' Denver Summit W 1–0 Angel City W · Melissa Kossler
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Denver Summit W win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
18′We published Denver Summit W at 43%. Our model now makes it 87%. 2–0 · 87–9–4
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Denver Summit W 2–0 Angel City W
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Denver Summit W win: 43% at kick-off, 87% now
19′18′: Lindsey Heaps on the scoresheet for Denver Summit W, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 87–9–4
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Ariadina Alves Borges · Angel City W
32′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 69–21–11
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Denver Summit W 2–1 Angel City W
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Denver Summit W win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
33′Angel City W pull one back on 32′ through Sveindis Jane Jonsdottir. 2–1. 2–1 · 69–21–10
34′Angel City W have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 2–1. 2–1 · 69–21–10
39′We published Denver Summit W at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 2–1 · 70–21–9
39′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 36–34–30
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Denver Summit W 2–2 Angel City W
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Denver Summit W win: 43% at kick-off, 36% now
40′Taylor Suarez scores for Angel City W on 39′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 36–34–30
44′43′: Allyson Sentnor on the scoresheet for Angel City W, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 11–23–65
44′We said Denver Summit W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 2–3 · 11–23–65
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Denver Summit W 2–3 Angel City W · Allyson Sentnor
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Denver Summit W win: 43% at kick-off, 11% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Angel City W win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Denver Summit W win 11%)
45′HALF-TIME Denver Summit W 2–3 Angel City W
46′SECOND HALF Denver Summit W 2–3 Angel City W
47′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 10–23–66
52′We said Denver Summit W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–23–68
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Emma Rose Regan · Denver Summit W
67′We said Denver Summit W at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–75
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Denver Summit W · On: Devin Lynch · Off: Emma Rose Regan
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Denver Summit W win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Devin Lynch · Denver Summit W
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Angel City W · On: Maiara Carolina Niehues · Off: Taylor Suarez
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Denver Summit W · On: Natalie Means · Off: Ayooluwa Naomi Oke
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Denver Summit W · On: yuna mccorrmack · Off: Melissa Kossler
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Angel City W · On: Nealy Martin · Off: Carina Rose Lageyre
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Denver Summit W · On: Olivia Thomas · Off: delanie sheehan
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Angel City W · On: Claire Emslie · Off: Sveindis Jane Jonsdottir
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Allyson Sentnor · Angel City W
FTFULL TIME Denver Summit W 2–3 Angel City W
FTDenver Summit W 2–3 Angel City W · Denver Summit W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Denver Summit W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Denver Summit W 43%, draw 22%, Angel City W 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Denver Summit W v Angel City WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Denver Summit W win43%

Draw22%

Angel City W win35%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:45

RoundGroup stage

VenueCentennial Stadium

Line-ups

Denver Summit W

Angel City W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Denver Summit W

Angel City W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Angel City W	27	+16	43
10	Denver Summit W	27	+8	38

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Denver Summit W

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Smith

7 A. Oke

23 E. Gaetino

3 K. Kurtz

6 J. Sonis

8 E. Regan

24 D. Sheehan

9 Y. Ryan

25 M. Kossler

10 L. Heaps

26 N. Flint

Coach · –

Substitutes

36 · K. Asman

2 · M. Reid

4 · N. Means

14 · Y. McCormack

20 · N. Ndjoah Eto

5 · D. Lynch

11 · A. Brazier

33 · O. Thomas

Angel City W

4-2-3-1

19 A. Anderson

3 S. KIng

6 E. Sams

11 S. Gorden

15 E. Shores

8 Ary Borges

16 C. Lageyre

20 G. Thompson

17 A. Sentnor

99 T. Suarez

32 S. Jonsdottir

Coach · Gunnar Smerud Leif

Substitutes

13 · H. G. Seabert

25 · S. Mattice

4 · K. Cherry

14 · N. Martin

12 · Maiara Niehues

40 · J. Immethun

10 · C. Emslie

33 · R. Tiernan

Our number · denver summit w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make Denver Summit W a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Denver Summit W v Angel City W~~1.55 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 38 v 43~~10 v 6

~~The market · Denver Summit W win~~44% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Denver Summit W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Denver Summit W win	43%	44%	−1
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Angel City W win	35%	30%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	58%	−3
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Denver Summit W or draw	65%	70%	−5
Denver Summit W clean sheet	26%	–	–
Angel City W clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.6 8.6 5.1 2.3 1 9.5 10.3 7.7 3.5 2 6.5 8.7 5.9 2.7 3 3.4 4.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Denver Summit W down, Angel City W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 995 NWSL Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 218 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Denver Summit W at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Angel City W away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Denver Summit W, 1.36 for Angel City W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ANG 3–3 DEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 5 Sept

DENVER SUMMIT W

WDDWLW3–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 3–0

ANGEL CITY W

WDWWWD2–0 · 3–3 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
3	San Diego Wave W	27	+12	51
4	Utah Royals W	27	+9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	+10	44
6	Angel City W	27	+16	43
7	Portland Thorns W	27	+6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	+11	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	+1	40
10	Denver Summit W	27	+8	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	−7	33
12	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
13	Houston Dash W	27	−5	30
14	Bay FC W	27	−14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	−48	17