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Chicago Red Stars W v Seattle Reign FC W

Chicago Red Stars W
1–3Full time
Seattle Reign FC W

NWSL Women · MON 19 OCT · Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 02:30
Chicago Red Stars W 1–3 Seattle Reign FC W SEATTLE REIGN FC W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Seattle Reign FC W win55%
The market said69%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.309
The market’s Brier score0.151

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Seattle Reign FC W win at 55%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Seattle Reign FC W 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 24–22–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chicago Red Stars W v Seattle Reign FC W
  4. 9′We said Seattle Reign FC W at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 8–16–76
  5. 9′A goal for Seattle Reign FC W on 9′. 0–0 · 24–24–53
  6. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Seattle Reign FC W
  7. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Seattle Reign FC W win: 55% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 9′GOAL DISALLOWED · 9' Seattle Reign FC W
  9. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Seattle Reign FC W win: 55% at kick-off, 53% now
  10. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Seattle Reign FC W win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  11. 39′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 5–16–78
  12. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Seattle Reign FC W · Jessica Fishlock
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Seattle Reign FC W win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
  14. 40′M. Mercado scores for Seattle Reign FC W on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–16–78
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Seattle Reign FC W
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Seattle Reign FC W
  17. 49′We said Seattle Reign FC W at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
  18. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Michelle Alozie · Off: Jenna Bike
  19. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Simone Charley · Off: E. Egizii
  20. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Seattle Reign FC W · On: Brittany Ratcliffe · Off: Holly Noushin Ward
  21. 68′We said Seattle Reign FC W at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  22. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Seattle Reign FC W win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  23. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Seattle Reign FC W · On: Nérilia Mondesir · Off: mia fishel
  24. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Seattle Reign FC W · On: Madison Curry · Off: Ryanne Brown
  25. 78′We said Seattle Reign FC W at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  26. 80′We said Seattle Reign FC W at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–99
  27. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Chicago Red Stars W 0–2 Seattle Reign FC W
  28. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Seattle Reign FC W win: 55% at kick-off, 99% now
  29. 81′We said Seattle Reign FC W at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  30. 82′80′: Nérilia Mondesir on the scoresheet for Seattle Reign FC W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  31. 85′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  32. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Chicago Red Stars W 0–3 Seattle Reign FC W
  33. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Anna Gasper · Off: Mallory Pugh
  34. 86′Seattle Reign FC W ahead on 84′ through M. Mercado. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  35. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Seattle Reign FC W · On: Angharad Jane James · Off: M. Mercado
  36. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Seattle Reign FC W · On: Sally Marie Menti · Off: Jessica Fishlock
  37. 91′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  38. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Chicago Red Stars W 1–3 Seattle Reign FC W
  39. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Maitane López · Off: Micayla Johnson
  40. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Elise Evans · Off: Brianna Pinto
  41. 92′Simone Charley scores for Chicago Red Stars W on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  42. FTFULL TIME Chicago Red Stars W 1–3 Seattle Reign FC W
  43. FTChicago Red Stars W 1–3 Seattle Reign FC W · Seattle Reign FC W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Seattle Reign FC W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chicago Red Stars W 24%, draw 22%, Seattle Reign FC W 55%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Chicago Red Stars W v Seattle Reign FC WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Chicago Red Stars W win24%
Draw22%
Seattle Reign FC W win55%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueNorthwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium

RefereeJeremy Scheer

Line-ups

Chicago Red Stars W

4-3-3

Seattle Reign FC W

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chicago Red Stars W

Seattle Reign FC W

14Days since last match15

Last match: 4 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 3 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Seattle Reign FC W27+140
16Chicago Red Stars W27−4817

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chicago Red Stars W

4-3-3

22 H. Mackiewicz

14 T. Wood

20 B. Franklin

3 S. Staab

11 N. Gomes

28 E. Egizii

10 B. A. Pinto

34 T. E. Dellarose

4 J. Bike

9 M. Swanson

23 M. Johnson

Coach · Paola Baez Trujillo Karina

Substitutes

1 · A. Naeher

27 · K. Atkinson

5 · M. Alozie

15 · E. Evans

25 · A. Farmer

77 · M. Lopez Millan

6 · O. Valdezate

31 · A. Gasper

18 · S. Charley

Seattle Reign FC W

4-3-3

1 C. Dickey

22 R. Brown

21 P. McClernon

23 J. Bugg

11 S. Huerta

16 A. McCammon

2 M. Mercado

20 S. Meza

12 H. Ward

19 M. Fishel

10 J. Fishlock

Coach · Laura Harvey

Substitutes

38 · C. Miller

14 · E. Mason

24 · M. Curry

25 · S. Holmes

8 · A. James-Turner

17 · S. Menti

13 · B. Ratcliffe

30 · N. Mondesir

7 · E. Adames

Our number · seattle reign fc w winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
55% The market69%
Us55%
Market69%

We make Seattle Reign FC W a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chicago Red Stars W v Seattle Reign FC W1.03 – 1.73
Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 30 AugW0 D1 L5 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 17 v 4016 v 9
The market · Seattle Reign FC W win69% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 13 OCT 05:5018 OCT 23:42
Our probability · Seattle Reign FC W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 72% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chicago Red Stars W win24%12%+12
Draw22%20%+2
Seattle Reign FC W win55%69%−14
Over 2.5 goals52%58%−6
Both teams to score51%50%+1
Over 1.5 goals75%79%−4
Over 3.5 goals30%37%−7
Chicago Red Stars W or draw45%31%+14
Chicago Red Stars W clean sheet18%––
Seattle Reign FC W clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%
0123450 5.4 12.0 9.4 5.4 2.4 1 7.6 10.1 9.5 5.5 2.4 2 3.4 5.8 4.9 2.8 3 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chicago Red Stars W down, Seattle Reign FC W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.70
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsSEA 1–0 CHI · SEA 3–3 CHI · CHI 2–2 SEA · SEA 1–2 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 30 Aug

CHICAGO RED STARS W

LLDLLL1–6 · 0–6 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–3

SEATTLE REIGN FC W

WWLLWL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1NJ/NY Gotham FC W28+1355
2San Diego Wave W28+1354
3Washington Spirit W28+1452
4Kansas City W28+1247
5Angel City W28+1746
6Utah Royals W28+746
7Portland Thorns W27+643
8North Carolina Courage W28+1042
9Seattle Reign FC W27+140
10Denver Summit W28+738
11Orlando Pride W27−733
12Boston Legacy W28−932
13Houston Dash W27−530
14Bay FC W27−1426
15Racing Louisville W28−1724
16Chicago Red Stars W27−4817

The competition's standings before kick-off.