Chicago Red Stars W v Houston Dash W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 03:35

Chicago Red Stars W 1–3 Houston Dash W HOUSTON DASH W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Houston Dash W win~~49%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.388

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.452

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Houston Dash W win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Houston Dash W was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 29–22–49
1′KICK-OFF Chicago Red Stars W v Houston Dash W
5′Houston Dash W score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–72
5′⚽ GOAL · 4' Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Houston Dash W
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Houston Dash W win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
6′We published Houston Dash W at 49%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 11–18–72
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 8–18–74
39′We published Houston Dash W at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
45′HALF-TIME Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Houston Dash W
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Houston Dash W · On: Katherine Rader · Off: khyah harper
46′SECOND HALF Chicago Red Stars W 0–1 Houston Dash W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chicago Red Stars W · On: E. Egizii · Off: Simone Charley
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Leah Klenke · Houston Dash W
54′We published Houston Dash W at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Chicago Red Stars W 0–2 Houston Dash W
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Houston Dash W win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
55′Houston Dash W ahead on 54′ through maggie graham. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Houston Dash W · On: Kalyssa van Zanten · Off: miljana ivanovic
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Houston Dash W · On: Clarissa Larisey · Off: Kate Louis Faasse
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Jenna Bike · Off: Micayla Johnson
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Anna Gasper · Off: Taylor Wood
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Houston Dash W · On: Sarah Puntigam · Off: danielle colaprico
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Houston Dash W · On: Allysha Chapman · Off: Linda Ullmark
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Houston Dash W win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Sarah Puntigam · Houston Dash W
79′We published Houston Dash W at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
79′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Chicago Red Stars W 0–3 Houston Dash W
84′Clarissa Larisey scores for Houston Dash W on 79′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Aaliyah Farmer · Off: Mallory Pugh
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Tessa Elise Dellarose · Chicago Red Stars W
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Chicago Red Stars W · On: Maitane López · Off: Tessa Elise Dellarose
94′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′90′: Samantha Staab on the scoresheet for Chicago Red Stars W, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Chicago Red Stars W 1–3 Houston Dash W
FTFULL TIME Chicago Red Stars W 1–3 Houston Dash W
FTChicago Red Stars W 1–3 Houston Dash W · Houston Dash W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Houston Dash W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chicago Red Stars W 29%, draw 22%, Houston Dash W 49%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Chicago Red Stars W v Houston Dash WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chicago Red Stars W win29%

Draw22%

Houston Dash W win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 01:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueNorthwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium

Line-ups

Chicago Red Stars W

4-3-3

Houston Dash W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chicago Red Stars W

Houston Dash W

6Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 18 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Houston Dash W	28	−6	30
16	Chicago Red Stars W	28	−50	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chicago Red Stars W

4-3-3

1 A. Naeher

14 T. Malham

20 B. Franklin

3 S. Staab

11 Nádia Gomes

9 M. Swanson

10 B. Pinto

34 T. E. Dellarose

5 M. Alozie

18 S. Charley

23 M. Johnson

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · K. Lund

4 · J. Bike

28 · E. Egizii

15 · Elise Evans

25 · A. Farmer

31 · A. Gasper

77 · Maitane López

22 · H. Mackiewicz

6 · Oihane Valdezate

Houston Dash W

4-2-3-1

1 J. Campbell

8 Natalie Hammond

14 P. Nielsen

4 L. Klenke

27 L. Boattin

24 D. Colaprico

19 M. Graham

34 K. Harper

30 L. Ullmark

47 M. Ivanović

23 K. Faasse

Coach · Juan Carlos Amorós

Substitutes

2 · A. Chapman

6 · M. Bright

40 · C. Delisle

18 · C. Hardin

9 · C. Larisey

17 · S. Puntigam

22 · K. Rader

99 · J. Brewster

12 · K. van Zanten

Our number · houston dash w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market45%

Us49%

~~Market~~45%

We make Houston Dash W a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chicago Red Stars W v Houston Dash W~~1.18 – 1.65

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 17 v 30~~16 v 13

~~The market · Houston Dash W win~~45% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Houston Dash W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chicago Red Stars W win	29%	29%	0
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Houston Dash W win	49%	45%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Chicago Red Stars W or draw	51%	55%	−4
Chicago Red Stars W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Houston Dash W clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.0 10.8 8.0 4.4 1 8.1 10.3 9.3 5.1 2.2 2 4.2 6.7 5.4 3.0 3 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chicago Red Stars W down, Houston Dash W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,001 NWSL Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chicago Red Stars W at home: 0.67 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Houston Dash W away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Chicago Red Stars W, 1.65 for Houston Dash W. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 00:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOU 5–0 CHI · HOU 1–0 CHI · CHI 1–2 HOU · HOU 0–2 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 6 Sept

CHICAGO RED STARS W

LDLLLL0–6 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–3

HOUSTON DASH W

LLWDLL1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
5	Angel City W	28	+17	46
6	Utah Royals W	28	+7	46
7	Portland Thorns W	28	+6	44
8	Seattle Reign FC W	28	+3	43
9	North Carolina Courage W	28	+10	42
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
11	Orlando Pride W	28	−6	36
12	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
13	Houston Dash W	28	−6	30
14	Bay FC W	28	−14	27
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	28	−50	17