Boston Legacy W v Racing Louisville W prediction · NWSL Women

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 04:05

Boston Legacy W 2–1 Racing Louisville W BOSTON LEGACY W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Boston Legacy W win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.404

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Boston Legacy W win at 48%.
2′Much as we predicted: Boston Legacy W was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–29
2′KICK-OFF Boston Legacy W v Racing Louisville W
5′Much as we predicted: Boston Legacy W was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
9′Boston Legacy W find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Boston Legacy W 1–0 Racing Louisville W
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Boston Legacy W win: 48% at kick-off, 71% now
10′We published Boston Legacy W at 48%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
23′Kayla Fischer scores for Racing Louisville W on 22′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 44–28–29
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Boston Legacy W 1–1 Racing Louisville W
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Boston Legacy W win: 48% at kick-off, 44% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Boston Legacy W win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME Boston Legacy W 1–1 Racing Louisville W
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 38–36–26
46′SECOND HALF Boston Legacy W 1–1 Racing Louisville W
51′We published Boston Legacy W at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Boston Legacy W 2–1 Racing Louisville W
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Boston Legacy W win: 48% at kick-off, 75% now
52′51′: Deja Nicole Davis on the scoresheet for Boston Legacy W, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 75–19–6
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Boston Legacy W win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Boston Legacy W · On: Ella Stevens · Off: Aleigh Gambone
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Boston Legacy W · On: Aïssata Traoré · Off: Sammy Smith
67′We published Boston Legacy W at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Racing Louisville W · On: Emma Sears · Off: sarah weber
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Racing Louisville W · On: Katie O'Kane · Off: Audrey McKeen
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Racing Louisville W · On: Taylor Michele White · Off: Kayla Fischer
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Racing Louisville W · On: Quincy McMahon · Off: M. Blackburn
77′We published Boston Legacy W at 48%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Boston Legacy W · On: Josefine Hasbo · Off: Annie Karich
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Boston Legacy W win: 48% at kick-off, 89% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Boston Legacy W · On: Nichelle Prince · Off: Amanda Gutierres Dos Santos
82′We published Boston Legacy W at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Racing Louisville W · On: Savannah Demelo · Off: Lauren Milliet
88′We published Boston Legacy W at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' lilly reale · Boston Legacy W
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Boston Legacy W win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Boston Legacy W · On: barbara olivieri · Off: sarah schupansky
FTFULL TIME Boston Legacy W 2–1 Racing Louisville W
FTBoston Legacy W 2–1 Racing Louisville W · Boston Legacy W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Boston Legacy W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Boston Legacy W 48%, draw 21%, Racing Louisville W 30%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Boston Legacy W v Racing Louisville WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Boston Legacy W win48%

Draw21%

Racing Louisville W win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 01:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueBoston Stadium

RefereeJohn Griggs

Line-ups

Boston Legacy W

Racing Louisville W

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Boston Legacy W

Racing Louisville W

13Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · NWSL Women

Last match: 3 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Boston Legacy W	27	−10	29
15	Racing Louisville W	27	−16	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Boston Legacy W

Formation not confirmed

18 L. C. Ivory

53 B. St.Georges

24 Lais

29 D. Davis

2 L. Reale

26 A. Cano

6 A. Karich

15 A. Gambone

23 S. Schupansky

9 Amanda Gutierres

8 S. Smith

Coach · –

Substitutes

87 · H. Stambaugh

3 · Kaka

4 · E. Elgin

10 · E. Stevens

21 · B. Olivieri

5 · J. Hasbo

12 · N. Prince

14 · A. Traore

7 · A. Allen

Racing Louisville W

3-4-1-2

24 J. Bloomer

3 A. Wright

15 M. Gacioch

8 C. Petersen

23 M. Blackburn

2 L. Milliet

10 M. Hodge

4 M. Morris

88 A. McKeen

42 S. Weber

9 K. Fischer

Coach · Beverly Yanez

Substitutes

1 · M. Prohaska

5 · E. Jean

12 · Q. McMahon

7 · S. Demelo

20 · K. O'Kane

21 · R. Hill

13 · E. Sears

11 · T. White

16 · M. Lardner

Our number · boston legacy w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Boston Legacy W a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Boston Legacy W v Racing Louisville W~~1.79 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 29 v 24~~13 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Boston Legacy W win	48%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Racing Louisville W win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Boston Legacy W or draw	70%	–	–
Boston Legacy W clean sheet	26%	–	–
Racing Louisville W clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 6.8 4.0 1 8.6 9.4 7.0 3.2 2 6.8 9.2 6.2 2.9 3 4.1 5.5 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Boston Legacy W down, Racing Louisville W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 993 NWSL Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Boston Legacy W at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Racing Louisville W away: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Boston Legacy W, 1.37 for Racing Louisville W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~RAC 4–1 BOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 29 Aug

BOSTON LEGACY W

LWWLLW2–5 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 4–2

RACING LOUISVILLE W

LLLLLD2–3 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	27	+14	55
2	San Diego Wave W	27	+12	51
3	Washington Spirit W	27	+13	49
4	Utah Royals W	27	+9	46
5	Kansas City W	27	+10	44
6	Angel City W	27	+16	43
7	Portland Thorns W	27	+6	43
8	North Carolina Courage W	27	+11	42
9	Seattle Reign FC W	27	+1	40
10	Denver Summit W	27	+8	38
11	Orlando Pride W	27	−7	33
12	Houston Dash W	27	−5	30
13	Boston Legacy W	27	−10	29
14	Bay FC W	27	−14	26
15	Racing Louisville W	27	−16	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	27	−48	17