Angel City W v Bay FC W prediction · NWSL Women

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Angel City WDrawBay FC W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Angel City W 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Angel City W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Angel City W 56%, draw 21%, Bay FC W 23%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Angel City W v Bay FC WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Angel City W win56%

Draw21%

Bay FC W win23%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:45

RoundGroup stage

VenueBanc of California Stadium

RefereeShawn Tehini

Line-ups

Angel City W

4-2-3-1

Bay FC W

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Angel City W

Bay FC W

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · NWSL Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Angel City W	28	+17	46
14	Bay FC W	28	−14	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Angel City W

4-2-3-1

19 A. Anderson

3 S. KIng

6 E. Madril

11 S. Gorden

15 E. Shores

16 C. Lageyre

8 Ary Borges

20 G. Thompson

17 A. Sentnor

32 S. Jónsdóttir

99 T. Suarez

Coach · –

Substitutes

14 · N. Martin

25 · S. Mattice

12 · Maiara Niehues

13 · H. G. Seabert

33 · R. Tiernan

40 · J. Immethun

2 · S. Leroux

4 · Karsyn Cherry

10 · C. Emslie

Bay FC W

4-2-3-1

29 J. Silkowitz

16 S. Collins

2 H. Gilchrist

21 A. Cometti

31 J. Nighswonger

19 D. Bailey

41 H. Bebar

23 C. Conti

47 K. Fuller

30 Agostina Holzheier

5 K. Lema

Coach · –

Substitutes

32 · E. Allen

10 · C. Girelli

11 · K. Hubly

1 · Camryn Miller

24 · Madeline Moreau

4 · Emily Menges

Our number · angel city w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market54%

Us56%

~~Market~~54%

We make Angel City W a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Angel City W v Bay FC W~~1.79 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 46 v 27~~7 v 14

~~The market · Angel City W win~~54% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Angel City W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Angel City W win	56%	54%	+2
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Bay FC W win	23%	22%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	59%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	39%	−8
Angel City W or draw	77%	78%	−1
Angel City W clean sheet	36%	–	–
Bay FC W clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 5.2 7.3 3.2 1 11.8 9.9 5.6 2 9.5 9.6 4.9 3 5.7 5.7 2.9 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Angel City W down, Bay FC W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,004 NWSL Women matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NWSL Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 227 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Angel City W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bay FC W away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Angel City W, 1.03 for Bay FC W. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 25 Oct 01:15. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BAY 1–3 ANG · ANG 2–1 BAY · BAY 2–0 ANG · BAY 0–2 ANG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NWSL Women this season · since 12 Sept

ANGEL CITY W

DWWWDW3–3 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

BAY FC W

LDWLLD0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC W	28	+13	55
2	San Diego Wave W	28	+13	54
3	Washington Spirit W	28	+14	52
4	Kansas City W	28	+12	47
5	Utah Royals W	29	+7	47
6	Portland Thorns W	29	+7	47
7	Angel City W	28	+17	46
8	Seattle Reign FC W	29	+3	44
9	North Carolina Courage W	29	+9	42
10	Denver Summit W	28	+7	38
11	Orlando Pride W	28	−6	36
12	Houston Dash W	29	−4	33
13	Boston Legacy W	28	−9	32
14	Bay FC W	28	−14	27
15	Racing Louisville W	28	−17	24
16	Chicago Red Stars W	29	−52	17