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The Town v Tacoma Defiance

The Town

4–4After penalties

Tacoma Defiance

MLS Next Pro · MON 12 OCT · PayPal Park

After 90 minutesGraded 12 Oct 04:09

The Town 3–3 Tacoma Defiance THE TOWN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said The Town win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.009

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 3–3, the score after 90 minutes. It was 4–4 after extra time; The Town won 3–1 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said The Town win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: The Town was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
1′KICK-OFF The Town v Tacoma Defiance
5′Much as we predicted: The Town was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' The Town 1–0 Tacoma Defiance
7′The Town find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' The Town 1–0 Tacoma Defiance
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 77% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 56% now
8′The Town find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 77% now
9′We published The Town at 57%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
10′We published The Town at 57%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' The Town 2–0 Tacoma Defiance
11′A goal for The Town on 10′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–3
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 91% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 77% now
12′Z. Bohane scores for The Town on 11′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–3
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 77% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 91% now
13′Z. Bohane scores for The Town on 11′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 91–6–3
14′We published The Town at 57%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
15′We published The Town at 57%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' The Town
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' The Town 2–1 Tacoma Defiance
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 93% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' The Town win: 57% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME The Town 2–1 Tacoma Defiance
46′SECOND HALF The Town 2–1 Tacoma Defiance
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tacoma Defiance · On: J. Winslow · Off: D. Alvarez
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Tacoma Defiance · On: D. Brown · Off: C. Phoenix
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' The Town 2–2 Tacoma Defiance
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' The Town 3–2 Tacoma Defiance
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' The Town · On: M. Kwende · Off: D. Baptista
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Tacoma Defiance · On: E. Carli · Off: M. Bell
76′🟨 YELLOW · 72' C. Gaffney · Tacoma Defiance
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' The Town · On: G. Bracken Serra · Off: K. Spivey
79′⚽ GOAL · 77' The Town 3–3 Tacoma Defiance · M. O'Neill (assist C. Gaffney)
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' The Town · On: W. Boyce · Off: J. Heisner
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Tacoma Defiance · On: L. Lucero · Off: M. Bronnik
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tacoma Defiance · On: K. Bonilla · Off: C. Gaffney
101′🟨 YELLOW · 101' Tacoma Defiance
104′SUBSTITUTION · 103' Tacoma Defiance · On: D. Robles · Off: X. Gnaulati
104′⚽ GOAL · 103' The Town 4–3 Tacoma Defiance
110′⚽ GOAL · 110' The Town 4–4 Tacoma Defiance
118′SUBSTITUTION · 115' The Town · On: J. Donnery · Off: S. de Flores
118′PENALTY MISSED · 121' Tacoma Defiance
118′⚽ GOAL · 121' The Town 4–4 Tacoma Defiance
118′⚽ GOAL · 122' The Town 4–4 Tacoma Defiance
118′PENALTY MISSED · 123' Tacoma Defiance
118′PENALTY MISSED · 123' The Town
118′PENALTY MISSED · 124' Tacoma Defiance
118′⚽ GOAL · 124' The Town 4–4 Tacoma Defiance
FTFULL TIME The Town 3–3 Tacoma Defiance
FTThe Town 3–3 Tacoma Defiance after 90 minutes, as graded · The Town win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

The Town win57%

Draw20%

Tacoma Defiance win23%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 01:00

VenuePayPal Park

Line-ups

The Town

Tacoma Defiance

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

The Town

Tacoma Defiance

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	The Town	28	+15	39
20	Tacoma Defiance	28	−4	38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

The Town

Formation not confirmed

22 N. Crockford

73 J. Heisner

66 A. Cano

71 N. Dossmann

88 D. Baptista

35 R. Rajagopal

38 E. Mendoza

29 K. Spivey

90 Z. Bohane

70 T. Allen

99 S. de Flores

Coach · Daniel de Geer

Substitutes

91 · C. Lambe

62 · D. Lorenti

58 · G. Bracken Serra

97 · W. Boyce

52 · J. Donnery

74 · M. Kwende

77 · J. Spivey

50 · J. Torres

Tacoma Defiance

Formation not confirmed

50 M. Anchor

47 D. Alvarez

53 G. Sandnes

35 A. Lopez

84 C. Gaffney

32 X. Gnaulati

40 M. O'Neill

48 C. Phoenix

59 M. Bell

42 R. Jauregui

81 M. Bronnik

Coach · –

Substitutes

41 · M. Shour

38 · K. Bonilla

58 · J. Winslow

80 · D. Brown

34 · D. Robles

30 · E. Carli

97 · S. Kitafuji

55 · J. Rios

99 · L. Lucero

Our number · the town winPublished 12 Oct 01:00

57% The market–

Us57%

We make The Town a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
The Town win	57%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Tacoma Defiance win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
The Town or draw	77%	–	–
The Town clean sheet	28%	–	–
Tacoma Defiance clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.3 4.3 2.7 1 7.1 8.8 5.7 2.5 2 7.4 9.4 6.1 2.6 3 5.3 6.7 4.3 4 2.9 3.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+The Town down, Tacoma Defiance across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,912 MLS Next Pro matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

MLS Next Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 3.36 goals a meeting; 8 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

The Town at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tacoma Defiance away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for The Town, 1.29 for Tacoma Defiance. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.36

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 14

~~Both scored~~10 of 14

~~Last meetings~~THE 1–2 TAC · THE 0–1 TAC · TAC 0–0 THE · THE 0–1 TAC

Form · last six in MLS Next Pro

THE TOWN

LWLLWW0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 2–0

TACOMA DEFIANCE

LWLWLD3–4 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Austin II	28	+33	63
2	Crown Legacy	28	+28	53
3	Chattanooga	28	+17	52
4	Portland Timbers II	28	+8	52
5	Ventura County	28	+22	49
6	Houston Dynamo FC II	28	+20	48
7	Atlanta United II	28	+16	47
8	New York RB II	28	+10	44
9	Connecticut FC	28	+7	44
10	New York City II	28	+6	44
11	New England II	28	+5	44
12	Columbus Crew II	28	+6	43
13	Minnesota United II	28	+4	42
14	Los Angeles FC II	28	+2	42
15	Huntsville City	28	+2	42
16	Philadelphia Union II	28	−3	41
17	St. Louis City II	28	+2	40
18	Orlando City II	28	−1	40
19	The Town	28	+15	39
20	Tacoma Defiance	28	−4	38
21	Toronto II	28	−8	37
22	Chicago Fire II	28	+2	36
23	North Texas	28	+1	34
24	Real Monarchs	28	−17	29
25	Carolina Core	28	−13	26
26	Vancouver Whitecaps II	28	−23	23
27	Sporting KC II	28	−39	22
28	Colorado Rapids II	28	−24	19
29	FC Cincinnati II	28	−30	18
30	Inter Miami II	28	−44	14