Portland Timbers II v Ventura County prediction · MLS Next Pro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Portland Timbers IIDrawVentura County

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Portland Timbers II 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Portland Timbers II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portland Timbers II 43%, draw 23%, Ventura County 34%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Portland Timbers II v Ventura CountyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Portland Timbers II win43%

Draw23%

Ventura County win34%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 02:00

RoundQuarter-finals

VenueProvidence Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portland Timbers II

Ventura County

9Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · MLS Next Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · portland timbers ii winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Portland Timbers II a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Portland Timbers II v Ventura County~~1.69 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 57 v 53~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Portland Timbers II win	43%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Ventura County win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Portland Timbers II or draw	66%	–	–
Portland Timbers II clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ventura County clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.3 6.4 4.6 2.3 1 7.4 10.4 7.7 3.8 2 6.1 8.8 6.4 3.2 3 3.4 5.0 3.6 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Portland Timbers II down, Ventura County across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,922 MLS Next Pro matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: MLS Next Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 430 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Portland Timbers II at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ventura County away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Portland Timbers II, 1.47 for Ventura County. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VEN 2–2 POR · POR 3–3 VEN · POR 0–0 VEN · VEN 2–2 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 24 Aug

PORTLAND TIMBERS II

DWDDDW2–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

VENTURA COUNTY

WDWWLD3–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Pacific Division

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Portland Timbers II	28	+8	57
2	Ventura County	28	+22	53
3	Los Angeles FC II	28	+2	45
4	The Town	28	+15	42
5	Tacoma Defiance	28	−4	41
6	Real Monarchs	28	−17	33
7	Vancouver Whitecaps II	28	−23	27