Houston Dynamo FC II v Los Angeles FC II

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Houston Dynamo FC II win at 54%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Houston Dynamo FC II was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–21–25
3. 1′KICK-OFF Houston Dynamo FC II v Los Angeles FC II
4. 12′Los Angeles FC II find the net on 12′. 0–1. 0–1 · 29–23–48
5. 12′We said Houston Dynamo FC II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–23–48
6. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Houston Dynamo FC II 0–1 Los Angeles FC II
7. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Houston Dynamo FC II win: 54% at kick-off, 29% now
8. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Los Angeles FC II win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Houston Dynamo FC II win 29%)
9. 26′We said Houston Dynamo FC II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–51
10. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Houston Dynamo FC II win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
11. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 23–25–52
12. 40′We said Houston Dynamo FC II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
13. 45′HALF-TIME Houston Dynamo FC II 0–1 Los Angeles FC II
14. 46′SECOND HALF Houston Dynamo FC II 0–1 Los Angeles FC II
15. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Los Angeles FC II · On: T. Babineau · Off: J. Santiago
16. 52′We said Houston Dynamo FC II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
17. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Houston Dynamo FC II win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
18. 54′A goal for Los Angeles FC II on 54′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–10–87
19. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Houston Dynamo FC II 0–2 Los Angeles FC II
20. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Houston Dynamo FC II win: 54% at kick-off, 3% now
21. 55′We said Houston Dynamo FC II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87
22. 69′Houston Dynamo FC II score on 69′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–23–70
23. 69′We said Houston Dynamo FC II at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–23–70
24. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Houston Dynamo FC II 1–2 Los Angeles FC II
25. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Houston Dynamo FC II · On: Alan · Off: M. Dimareli
26. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Houston Dynamo FC II · On: Arthur Sousa · Off: M. Arana
27. 74′Houston Dynamo FC II find the net on 74′. 2–2. 2–2 · 25–60–15
28. 74′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 25–60–15
29. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Houston Dynamo FC II 2–2 Los Angeles FC II
30. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Houston Dynamo FC II win: 54% at kick-off, 25% now
31. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Los Angeles FC II win 15%)
32. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Los Angeles FC II · On: E. Rodriguez · Off: T. Mihalic
33. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Los Angeles FC II · On: N. Mardaresco · Off: M. Aiyenero
34. 76′PENALTY MISSED · 76' Houston Dynamo FC II
35. 80′PENALTY MISSED · 73' G. Rivera · Houston Dynamo FC II
36. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Houston Dynamo FC II win: 54% at kick-off, 13% now
37. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Los Angeles FC II
38. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Houston Dynamo FC II · On: C. Gonzalez · Off: A. Brummett
39. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Houston Dynamo FC II win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
40. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Los Angeles FC II · On: L. Lambert · Off: J. Terry
41. 112′SUBSTITUTION · 105' Houston Dynamo FC II · On: D. Herrera · Off: N. Betancourt
42. 112′SUBSTITUTION · 105' Los Angeles FC II · On: J. Machuca · Off: C. Kosakoff
43. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at over 99%. 2–2 · 0–100–0
44. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
45. 120′SUBSTITUTION · 114' Houston Dynamo FC II · On: Vitor de Almeida Narciso André · Off: Vinicius Silva Corrected
46. 120′🟨 YELLOW · 120' Decarlo guerra · Los Angeles FC II
47. 145′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 96%. 2–2 · 2–96–1
48. FTFULL TIME Houston Dynamo FC II 2–2 Los Angeles FC II
49. FTHouston Dynamo FC II 2–2 Los Angeles FC II after 90 minutes, as graded · Houston Dynamo FC II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.