Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › MLS Next Pro › Crown Legacy v New York RB II

Back
USA flag

Crown Legacy v New York RB II

Crown Legacy
2–1Full time
New York RB II

MLS Next Pro · MON 19 OCT · Sportsplex at Matthews

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 02:30
Crown Legacy 2–1 New York RB II CROWN LEGACY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Crown Legacy win51%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.371
The market’s Brier score0.499

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Crown Legacy win at 51%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Crown Legacy v New York RB II
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Crown Legacy 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–20–30
  4. 13′Crown Legacy find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–16–14
  5. 13′We said Crown Legacy at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–16–14
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Crown Legacy 1–0 New York RB II
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Crown Legacy win: 51% at kick-off, 70% now
  8. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Crown Legacy win: 51% at kick-off, 71% now
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 1–0 · 71–17–12
  10. 31′A goal for Crown Legacy on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 88–8–4
  11. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Crown Legacy 2–0 New York RB II
  12. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Crown Legacy win: 51% at kick-off, 88% now
  13. 32′We said Crown Legacy at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 2–0 · 88–8–4
  14. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' L. Dieujuste · New York RB II
  15. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Crown Legacy
  16. 40′We said Crown Legacy at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Crown Legacy 2–0 New York RB II
  18. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Crown Legacy win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Crown Legacy 2–0 New York RB II
  20. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' New York RB II
  21. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' New York RB II · On: K. Wender · Off: O. Valencia
  22. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' New York RB II · On: R. Mosquera · Off: D. Nelich
  23. 64′We said Crown Legacy at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  24. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 53' New York RB II · On: T. Rosborough · Off: P. Castro
  25. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Crown Legacy · On: T. Barnett · Off: M. Smalls
  26. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' New York RB II · On: C. Gallagher · Off: N. Worth
  27. 78′New York RB II score on 78′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  28. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Crown Legacy 2–1 New York RB II
  29. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Crown Legacy win: 51% at kick-off, 84% now
  30. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Crown Legacy · On: W. Holt · Off: W. Cleary
  31. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Crown Legacy · On: B. Romero · Off: A. Mendoza
  32. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' New York RB II · On: B. Rodriguez · Off: C. Faello
  33. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Crown Legacy win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
  34. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Crown Legacy · On: S. Ventura · Off: D. Longo
  35. FTFULL TIME Crown Legacy 2–1 New York RB II
  36. FTCrown Legacy 2–1 New York RB II · Crown Legacy win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crown Legacy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crown Legacy 51%, draw 20%, New York RB II 30%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Crown Legacy v New York RB IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Crown Legacy win51%
Draw20%
New York RB II win30%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueSportsplex at Matthews

Line-ups

Crown Legacy

New York RB II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crown Legacy

New York RB II

28Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Sept · MLS Next Pro

Last match: 11 Oct · MLS Next Pro

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Crown Legacy

Formation not confirmed

31 J. A. Wickham

35 W. Cleary

39 J. Neeley

34 A. Johnson

24 M. Thomas

58 D. Longo

20 B. Coulibaly

89 A. Mendoza

71 N. Richmond

83 H. Mbongue

91 M. Smalls

Coach · –

Substitutes

53 · J. Philpot

63 · W. Holt

45 · J. Smith

79 · S. Ventura

68 · C. Gonzalez

32 · B. Blama

77 · T. Barnett

41 · B. Romero

86 · D. Brown

New York RB II

Formation not confirmed

72 T. Szewczyk

36 L. Dieujuste

49 J. Munson

45 C. Faello

94 S. Baitinger

61 D. Cadigan

80 N. Worth

5 O. Valencia

88 P. Castro

92 D. Nelich

91 M. Jimenez

Coach · –

Substitutes

55 · A. Causey

52 · A. Modelo

67 · K. Wender

62 · P. Sokoloff

79 · R. Mosquera

70 · A. Rojas

66 · T. Rosborough

89 · C. Gallagher

83 · B. Rodriguez

Our number · crown legacy winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
51% The market43%
Us51%
Market43%

We make Crown Legacy a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Crown Legacy v New York RB II2.33 – 1.78
Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 19 AugW3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2
The market · Crown Legacy win43% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 13 OCT 05:4918 OCT 23:42
Our probability · Crown Legacy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Crown Legacy win51%43%+8
Draw20%24%−4
New York RB II win30%33%−3
Over 2.5 goals77%71%+6
Both teams to score75%71%+4
Over 1.5 goals91%87%+4
Over 3.5 goals59%51%+8
Crown Legacy or draw70%67%+3
Crown Legacy clean sheet17%––
New York RB II clean sheet10%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%
0123450 3.1 2.6 1 4.0 6.8 6.0 3.6 2 4.5 7.9 6.9 4.1 3 3.5 6.1 5.4 3.2 4 2.0 3.6 3.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Crown Legacy down, New York RB II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting3.83
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored5 of 6
Last meetingsNEW 0–3 CRO · CRO 2–5 NEW · NEW 1–4 CRO · CRO 1–1 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 19 Aug

CROWN LEGACY

LWLWDW0–2 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

NEW YORK RB II

WWLDLW5–1 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 3–1