Crown Legacy v Columbus Crew II prediction · MLS Next Pro

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Crown LegacyDrawColumbus Crew II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Crown Legacy 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crown Legacy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crown Legacy 54%, draw 20%, Columbus Crew II 25%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Crown Legacy v Columbus Crew IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Crown Legacy win54%

Draw20%

Columbus Crew II win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:00

RoundQuarter-finals

VenueSportsplex at Matthews

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crown Legacy

Columbus Crew II

7Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · MLS Next Pro

Last match: 17 Oct · MLS Next Pro

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · crown legacy winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Crown Legacy a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.5, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Crown Legacy v Columbus Crew II~~2.19 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crown Legacy win	54%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Columbus Crew II win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Crown Legacy or draw	75%	–	–
Crown Legacy clean sheet	24%	–	–
Columbus Crew II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.6 4.0 2.8 1 5.9 8.2 6.0 2.9 2 6.3 9.0 6.5 3.2 3 4.6 6.6 4.7 2.3 4 2.5 3.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crown Legacy down, Columbus Crew II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,922 MLS Next Pro matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: MLS Next Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.5% of games this season, across 430 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crown Legacy at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Columbus Crew II away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Crown Legacy, 1.45 for Columbus Crew II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~COL 1–1 CRO · CRO 3–3 COL · CRO 0–1 COL · COL 2–1 CRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 23 Aug

CROWN LEGACY

WLWDWW3–1 · 2–3 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

COLUMBUS CREW II

WLLDDW4–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

Crown Legacy v Columbus Crew II

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Crown Legacy

Columbus Crew II

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 23 Aug