Columbus Crew II v New England II prediction · MLS Next Pro

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Columbus Crew II 2–1 New England II COLUMBUS CREW II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Columbus Crew II win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.463

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Columbus Crew II win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Columbus Crew II 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–33
1′KICK-OFF Columbus Crew II v New England II
12′Columbus Crew II score on 12′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 68–18–14
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Columbus Crew II 1–0 New England II
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Columbus Crew II win: 45% at kick-off, 68% now
13′We said Columbus Crew II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–18–14
25′New England II find the net on 25′. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–27–31
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Columbus Crew II 1–1 New England II
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Columbus Crew II win: 45% at kick-off, 41% now
44′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 37–34–29
45′A goal for Columbus Crew II on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 71–20–9
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Columbus Crew II 2–1 New England II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Columbus Crew II win: 45% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME Columbus Crew II 2–1 New England II
46′We said Columbus Crew II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 2–1 · 71–20–9
50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' New England II
77′We said Columbus Crew II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
77′🟨 YELLOW · 65' C. Ruvalcaba · Columbus Crew II
77′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Columbus Crew II · On: J. Danjaji · Off: N. Rincon
77′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Columbus Crew II · On: T. Brown · Off: P. Forfor
77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' New England II · On: S. Sasaki · Off: J. Smith
77′🟨 YELLOW · 73' K. Gbamble · Columbus Crew II
77′SECOND HALF Columbus Crew II 2–1 New England II
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Columbus Crew II win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' New England II · On: J. Da · Off: C. Oliveira
83′We said Columbus Crew II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
92′We said Columbus Crew II at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–1 · 97–3–0
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Columbus Crew II win: 45% at kick-off, 97% now
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Columbus Crew II · On: A. Torres · Off: C. Adams
FTFULL TIME Columbus Crew II 2–1 New England II
FTColumbus Crew II 2–1 New England II · Columbus Crew II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Columbus Crew II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Columbus Crew II 45%, draw 22%, New England II 33%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Columbus Crew II v New England IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Columbus Crew II win45%

Draw22%

New England II win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueHistoric Crew Stadium

Line-ups

Columbus Crew II

New England II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Columbus Crew II

New England II

27Days since last match27

Last match: 20 Sept · MLS Next Pro

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Columbus Crew II

Formation not confirmed

54 L. Pruter

42 B. Adu-Gyamfi

37 R. Aoki

12 C. Ruvalcaba

36 I. Heffess

84 P. Forfor

30 N. Rincon

50 T. Karumanchi

40 J. Chirinos

31 K. Gbamble

46 C. Adams

Coach · Federico Higuain

Substitutes

41 · S. Lapkes

22 · T. Brown

73 · J. Munoz

63 · G. Di Noto

51 · G. De Libera

33 · M. Nyeman

62 · I. Ewing

71 · J. Danjaji

38 · A. Torres

New England II

Formation not confirmed

33 D. Parisian

14 T. Smith

15 J. Shannon

6 G. Dahlin

19 D. McIntosh

23 J. Mussenden

44 L. Azar

2 J. Smith

35 C. Oliveira

21 M. Morgan

77 M. Wells

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · M. Weinstein

4 · C. Mbai Assem

74 · L. Katsell

20 · S. George

3 · S. Mimy

17 · S. Sasaki

10 · J. Da

72 · A. Prajapati

Our number · columbus crew ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Columbus Crew II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Columbus Crew II v New England II~~1.80 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 19 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 48 v 48~~1 v 2

~~The market · Columbus Crew II win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Columbus Crew II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Columbus Crew II win	45%	43%	+2
Draw	22%	25%	−3
New England II win	33%	33%	0
Over 2.5 goals	64%	65%	−1
Both teams to score	64%	67%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Columbus Crew II or draw	67%	67%	0
Columbus Crew II clean sheet	22%	–	–
New England II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.7 5.7 4.2 2.1 1 6.8 9.8 7.4 3.7 2 5.9 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 3.6 5.3 4.0 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Columbus Crew II down, New England II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,915 MLS Next Pro matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: MLS Next Pro matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.2% of games this season, across 423 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Columbus Crew II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). New England II away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Columbus Crew II, 1.51 for New England II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 1–1 NEW · NEW 2–2 COL · COL 2–1 NEW · NEW 2–2 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 19 Aug

COLUMBUS CREW II

LWLLDD0–1 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 1–1

NEW ENGLAND II

LLLDDW2–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Northeast Division

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Columbus Crew II	28	+6	48
2	New England II	28	+5	48
3	New York City II	28	+6	47
4	Connecticut FC	28	+7	46
5	New York RB II	28	+10	46
6	Philadelphia Union II	28	−3	43
7	Toronto II	28	−8	39
8	FC Cincinnati II	28	−30	20