Austin II v The Town

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Austin II win at 46%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Austin II was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–29
3. 1′KICK-OFF Austin II v The Town
4. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' The Town
5. 25′The Town score on 24′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–25–59
6. 25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Austin II 0–1 The Town
7. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Austin II win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
8. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' The Town win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Austin II win 17%)
9. 26′We said Austin II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–25–59
10. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' The Town
11. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Austin II win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
12. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Austin II
13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 16–25–60
14. 34′We said Austin II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
15. 45′HALF-TIME Austin II 0–1 The Town
16. 46′SECOND HALF Austin II 0–1 The Town
17. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Luke Chamberlain · Austin II
18. 51′We said Austin II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
19. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Austin II
20. 58′Austin II find the net on 58′. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–48–21
21. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Austin II · On: S. Dobrijevic · Off: D. Abarca Corrected
22. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Austin II · On: K. Hot · Off: L. Chamberlain
23. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Austin II · On: S. Dobrijevic · Off: L. Feliciano
24. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Austin II 1–1 The Town
25. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Austin II win: 46% at kick-off, 30% now
26. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was The Town win 21%)
27. 59′We said Austin II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–49–21
28. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' The Town · On: J. Donnery · Off: J. Heisner
29. 60′We said Austin II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
30. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Austin II win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
31. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' The Town
32. 69′We said Austin II at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
33. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' The Town
34. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Austin II · On: P. Gryczewski · Off: I. Sall
35. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Austin II win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
36. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Austin II
37. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Austin II · On: D. Ciesla · Off: R. Thomas
38. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' The Town · On: M. Kwende · Off: D. Baptista
39. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' The Town · On: J. Spivey · Off: T. Allen
40. 88′A goal for Austin II on 88′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–4–0
41. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Austin II win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
42. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Austin II 2–1 The Town
43. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Austin II win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
44. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Austin II win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 4%)
45. 89′We published Austin II at 46%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–1 · 96–4–0
46. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Austin II win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
47. 90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 97–3–0
48. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' The Town · On: G. Bracken Serra · Off: E. Mendoza
49. FTFULL TIME Austin II 2–1 The Town
50. FTAustin II 2–1 The Town · Austin II win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.