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Atlanta United II v Connecticut FC

Atlanta United II
0–1Full time
Connecticut FC

MLS Next Pro · FRI 16 OCT · Fifth Third Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40
Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC ATLANTA UNITED II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Atlanta United II win47%
The market said40%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.727
The market’s Brier score0.672

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Atlanta United II win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Atlanta United II 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–21–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Atlanta United II v Connecticut FC
  4. 5′Connecticut FC find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–20–53
  5. 5′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–20–53
  6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC
  7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Atlanta United II win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  8. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Connecticut FC win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Atlanta United II win 27%)
  9. 16′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–21–55
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 0–1 · 21–22–57
  11. 35′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
  12. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Atlanta United II win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC
  15. 50′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  16. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Atlanta United II · On: S. Pita · Off: I. Suarez
  17. 62′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
  18. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Connecticut FC · B. Destin · Connecticut FC
  19. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Connecticut FC · On: R. Mora-Arias · Off: E. Gomez
  20. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Atlanta United II win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  21. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Connecticut FC · On: N. Che · Off: A. Applewhaite
  22. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Connecticut FC · On: W. Agostoni · Off: S. Sserwadda
  23. 74′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
  24. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atlanta United II · On: O. Fakiseyi · Off: T. Majub
  25. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Atlanta United II
  26. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Connecticut FC · On: Caua Paixao · Off: B. Tanyi
  27. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atlanta United II · On: J. Kwon · Off: A. Gill
  28. 104′🟨 YELLOW · 90+13' Atlanta United II
  29. FTFULL TIME Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC
  30. FTAtlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC · Atlanta United II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlanta United II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlanta United II 47%, draw 20%, Connecticut FC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Atlanta United II v Connecticut FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Atlanta United II win47%
Draw20%
Connecticut FC win32%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueFifth Third Stadium

Line-ups

Atlanta United II

Connecticut FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlanta United II

Connecticut FC

26Days since last match26

Last match: 20 Sept · MLS Next Pro

Last match: 20 Sept · MLS Next Pro

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlanta United II

Formation not confirmed

42 J. Hibbert

82 M. Senanou

64 M. Cisset

41 T. Majub

67 E. Dovlo

16 A. Gill

78 A. Jardines

50 D. Chong-Qui

56 I. Suarez

70 C. Dunbar

39 A. Kovac

Coach · –

Substitutes

51 · J. Ranson

52 · O. Fakiseyi

40 · S. Pita

81 · D. Sibrian

61 · A. Browne

33 · P. Weah

85 · A. Henry

95 · G. Riveras

83 · J. Kwon

Connecticut FC

Formation not confirmed

23 G. Rankenburg

21 R. Van Hees

20 J. Malou

12 L. Kamrath

22 A. Applewhaite

13 A. Monis

8 S. Sserwadda

11 E. Gomez

14 D. Lacy

7 B. Tanyi

70 B. Destin

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · A. Ramos

15 · J. Stephenson

77 · J. Ping

16 · N. Che

24 · D. D’Ippolito

17 · W. Agostoni

9 · Caua Paixao

31 · R. Mora-Arias

57 · D. Hyte

Our number · atlanta united ii winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
47% The market40%
Us47%
Market40%

We make Atlanta United II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Atlanta United II v Connecticut FC2.14 – 1.75
Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 18 AugW4 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L3
The market · Atlanta United II win40% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 10 OCT 04:0016 OCT 22:43
Our probability · Atlanta United II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Atlanta United II win47%40%+7
Draw20%26%−6
Connecticut FC win32%34%−2
Over 2.5 goals74%63%+11
Both teams to score72%65%+7
Over 1.5 goals90%83%+7
Over 3.5 goals54%44%+10
Atlanta United II or draw68%66%+2
Atlanta United II clean sheet18%––
Connecticut FC clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%
0123450 2.1 3.7 3.2 1 4.5 7.6 6.6 3.9 2 4.7 8.1 7.0 4.1 3 3.4 5.8 5.0 2.9 4 3.1 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Atlanta United II down, Connecticut FC across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsATL 4–1 CON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 18 Aug

ATLANTA UNITED II

WWDWLW2–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 4–2

CONNECTICUT FC

WWLLLW2–0 · 4–2 · 2–4 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 7–2