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Atlanta United II v Connecticut FC
Atlanta United II
Connecticut FCMLS Next Pro · FRI 16 OCT · Fifth Third Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Atlanta United II win at 47%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Atlanta United II 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–21–32
- 1′KICK-OFF Atlanta United II v Connecticut FC
- 5′Connecticut FC find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–20–53
- 5′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–20–53
- 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC
- 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Atlanta United II win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
- 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Connecticut FC win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Atlanta United II win 27%)
- 16′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–21–55
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.9 we expected. 0–1 · 21–22–57
- 35′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Atlanta United II win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC
- 46′SECOND HALF Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC
- 50′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Atlanta United II · On: S. Pita · Off: I. Suarez
- 62′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Connecticut FC · B. Destin · Connecticut FC
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Connecticut FC · On: R. Mora-Arias · Off: E. Gomez
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Atlanta United II win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Connecticut FC · On: N. Che · Off: A. Applewhaite
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Connecticut FC · On: W. Agostoni · Off: S. Sserwadda
- 74′We said Atlanta United II at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Atlanta United II · On: O. Fakiseyi · Off: T. Majub
- 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Atlanta United II
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Connecticut FC · On: Caua Paixao · Off: B. Tanyi
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atlanta United II · On: J. Kwon · Off: A. Gill
- 104′🟨 YELLOW · 90+13' Atlanta United II
- FTFULL TIME Atlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC
- FTAtlanta United II 0–1 Connecticut FC · Atlanta United II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAtlanta United II are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Atlanta United II 47%, draw 20%, Connecticut FC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Atlanta United II win47%
Connecticut FC win32%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 23:00
RoundRound of 16
VenueFifth Third Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Atlanta United IIMIN
Connecticut FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Atlanta United II
Connecticut FC
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Atlanta United II
Connecticut FC
Last match: 20 Sept · MLS Next Pro
Last match: 20 Sept · MLS Next Pro
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Atlanta United II
Formation not confirmed
42 J. Hibbert
82 M. Senanou
64 M. Cisset
41 T. Majub
67 E. Dovlo
16 A. Gill
78 A. Jardines
50 D. Chong-Qui
56 I. Suarez
70 C. Dunbar
39 A. Kovac
Coach · –
Substitutes
51 · J. Ranson
52 · O. Fakiseyi
40 · S. Pita
81 · D. Sibrian
61 · A. Browne
33 · P. Weah
85 · A. Henry
95 · G. Riveras
83 · J. Kwon
Connecticut FC
Formation not confirmed
23 G. Rankenburg
21 R. Van Hees
20 J. Malou
12 L. Kamrath
22 A. Applewhaite
13 A. Monis
8 S. Sserwadda
11 E. Gomez
14 D. Lacy
7 B. Tanyi
70 B. Destin
Coach · –
Substitutes
1 · A. Ramos
15 · J. Stephenson
77 · J. Ping
16 · N. Che
24 · D. D’Ippolito
17 · W. Agostoni
9 · Caua Paixao
31 · R. Mora-Arias
57 · D. Hyte
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Atlanta United II
Formation not confirmed
42 J. Hibbert
82 M. Senanou
64 M. Cisset
41 T. Majub
67 E. Dovlo
16 A. Gill
78 A. Jardines
50 D. Chong-Qui
56 I. Suarez
70 C. Dunbar
39 A. Kovac
Coach · –
Substitutes
51 · J. Ranson
52 · O. Fakiseyi
40 · S. Pita
81 · D. Sibrian
61 · A. Browne
33 · P. Weah
85 · A. Henry
95 · G. Riveras
83 · J. Kwon
Connecticut FC
Formation not confirmed
23 G. Rankenburg
21 R. Van Hees
20 J. Malou
12 L. Kamrath
22 A. Applewhaite
13 A. Monis
8 S. Sserwadda
11 E. Gomez
14 D. Lacy
7 B. Tanyi
70 B. Destin
Coach · –
Substitutes
1 · A. Ramos
15 · J. Stephenson
77 · J. Ping
16 · N. Che
24 · D. D’Ippolito
17 · W. Agostoni
9 · Caua Paixao
31 · R. Mora-Arias
57 · D. Hyte
We make Atlanta United II a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United II win | 47% | 40% | +7 |
| Draw | 20% | 26% | −6 |
| Connecticut FC win | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 63% | +11 |
| Both teams to score | 72% | 65% | +7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 83% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Atlanta United II or draw | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Atlanta United II clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
| Connecticut FC clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2026Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in MLS Next Pro this season · since 18 Aug
ATLANTA UNITED II
CONNECTICUT FC