Toronto FC v DC United prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Toronto FCDrawDC United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Toronto FC 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Toronto FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Toronto FC 50%, draw 25%, DC United 25%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Toronto FC v DC UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Toronto FC win50%

Draw25%

DC United win25%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueBMO Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Toronto FC

DC United

11Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 22 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
13	DC United	30	−15	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · toronto fc winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Toronto FC a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Toronto FC v DC United~~1.73 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 36 v 33~~10 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Toronto FC win	50%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
DC United win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Toronto FC or draw	75%	–	–
Toronto FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
DC United clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.3 5.9 3.8 1 8.8 11.7 6.5 2.6 2 8.1 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 4.7 5.5 3.2 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Toronto FC down, DC United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Toronto FC at home: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). DC United away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Toronto FC, 1.18 for DC United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DCU 2–1 TOR · TOR 2–0 DCU · DCU 2–2 TOR · TOR 1–3 DCU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

TORONTO FC

LLLWDW0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–0

DC UNITED

LDLWLL1–2 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25