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Toronto FC v CF Montreal

Toronto FC

2–1Full time

CF Montreal

Major League Soccer · SAT 10 OCT · BMO Field

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Toronto FC 2–1 CF Montreal TORONTO FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Toronto FC win~~48%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.407

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.393

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Toronto FC win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Toronto FC was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–27
1′KICK-OFF Toronto FC v CF Montreal
4′Much as we predicted: Toronto FC was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–27
24′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Toronto FC · On: William Yarbrough · Off: Luka Gavran Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Toronto FC 0–0 CF Montreal
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Toronto FC 0–1 CF Montreal
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Toronto FC 0–1 CF Montreal · Daniel Rios
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Brayan Vera · CF Montreal
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Toronto FC · On: Djordje Mihailovic · Off: Jonathan Osorio Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' CF Montreal · On: Samuel Piette · Off: Victor Loturi Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' CF Montreal · On: Fabian Herbers · Off: Alexis Sanchez Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Toronto FC · On: Lewis Morgan · Off: Alonso Corrected
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Brandan Craig · CF Montreal
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' CF Montreal · On: Wikelman·Carmona · Off: Daniel Rios Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' CF Montreal · On: Efrain Morales · Off: Brandan Craig Corrected
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Luca Petrasso · CF Montreal
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Richie Laryea · Toronto FC
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Toronto FC 1–1 CF Montreal · Daniel Rios
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Toronto FC 1–1 CF Montreal · Lewis Morgan
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Toronto FC 2–1 CF Montreal · Lewis Morgan
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Toronto FC 2–1 CF Montreal · Djordje Mihailovic
FTFULL TIME Toronto FC 2–1 CF Montreal
FTToronto FC 2–1 CF Montreal · Toronto FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Toronto FC win48%

Draw25%

CF Montreal win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:00

Venue · BMO Field

Referee · Allen Chapman

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Toronto FC

4-3-3

1 L. Gavran

22 R. Laryea

13 B. Kuscevic

15 N. Gomis

3 Matheus Pereira

21 J. Osorio

14 A. Coello

6 N. Dorsch

7 T. Corbeanu

9 J. Sargent

20 D. Salloi

Coach · Robin Fraser

Substitutes

23 · W. Yarbrough

96 · R. Chukwu

12 · Z. Monlouis

90 · L. Morgan

10 · D. Mihailovic

38 · J. Gilman

11 · D. Etienne

27 · A. Piedrahita

17 · E. Aristizabal

CF Montreal

3-4-2-1

1 S. Breza

2 J. Neal

5 B. Craig

4 B. Vera

27 D. Bugaj

22 V. Loturi

8 M. Longstaff

13 L. Petrasso

14 D. Rios

10 A. Sanchez

9 P. Owusu

Coach · Philippe Eullaffroy

Substitutes

41 · S. Keita

24 · E. Morales

28 · V. Radojevic

16 · W. Carmona

6 · S. Piette

7 · D. Pereira

21 · F. Herbers

23 · N. Streit

18 · G. Synchuk

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Toronto FC

4-3-3

1 L. Gavran

22 R. Laryea

13 B. Kuscevic

15 N. Gomis

3 Matheus Pereira

21 J. Osorio

14 A. Coello

6 N. Dorsch

7 T. Corbeanu

9 J. Sargent

20 D. Salloi

Coach · Robin Fraser

Substitutes

23 · W. Yarbrough

96 · R. Chukwu

12 · Z. Monlouis

90 · L. Morgan

10 · D. Mihailovic

38 · J. Gilman

11 · D. Etienne

27 · A. Piedrahita

17 · E. Aristizabal

CF Montreal

3-4-2-1

1 S. Breza

2 J. Neal

5 B. Craig

4 B. Vera

27 D. Bugaj

22 V. Loturi

8 M. Longstaff

13 L. Petrasso

14 D. Rios

10 A. Sanchez

9 P. Owusu

Coach · Philippe Eullaffroy

Substitutes

41 · S. Keita

24 · E. Morales

28 · V. Radojevic

16 · W. Carmona

6 · S. Piette

7 · D. Pereira

21 · F. Herbers

23 · N. Streit

18 · G. Synchuk

Our number · toronto fc winPublished 10 Oct 18:18

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make Toronto FC a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Toronto FC win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	25%	25%	+1
CF Montreal win	27%	26%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	62%	−8
Both teams to score	56%	63%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	78%	82%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	32%	42%	−10
Toronto FC or draw	73%	74%	0
Toronto FC clean sheet	31%	–	–
CF Montreal clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.5 6.4 4.1 1 9.1 11.9 6.7 2.7 2 8.0 9.3 5.5 2.2 3 4.4 5.2 3.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Toronto FC down, CF Montreal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 3.58 goals a meeting; 6 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Toronto FC at home: 2.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). CF Montreal away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Toronto FC, 1.18 for CF Montreal. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.58

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 12

~~Both scored~~8 of 12

~~Last meetings~~CFM 0–0 TOR · TOR 1–1 CFM · CFM 1–6 TOR · CFM 0–1 TOR

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

TORONTO FC

DDWLLL1–1 · 4–4 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2

CF MONTREAL

LLLLLW1–7 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21