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St. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer · THU 15 OCT · Citypark
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Vancouver Whitecaps win at 38%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: St. Louis City was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–38
- 2′KICK-OFF St. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps
- 13′Vancouver Whitecaps have had 8.0 attempts to 0.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 37–26–38
- 40′SUBSTITUTION · 40' St. Louis City · On: Rafael Santos · Off: Conrad Wallem
- 45′SECOND HALF St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Fallou Fall · St. Louis City
- 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Édier Ocampo · Vancouver Whitecaps
- 49′Vancouver Whitecaps have had 12.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–37–32
- 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was St. Louis City win 31%)
- 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–35–33
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
- 64′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–48–26
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Bruno Caicedo · Off: Emmanuel Sabbi
- 67′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' St. Louis City · On: Simon Becher · Off: Rafael Navarro Leal
- 74′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–61–20
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Aleksa Cvetkovic · Off: Oliver Love Larraz
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Rayan Elloumi · Off: Brian White
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Ralph Priso · Vancouver Whitecaps
- 81′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–74–13
- 84′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Alexandru Măţan · St. Louis City
- 86′Vancouver Whitecaps have had 16.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 8–84–8
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' St. Louis City · On: Lukas MacNaughton · Off: Christopher Durkin
- 90′Full time, 0–0. We called St. Louis City at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- 91′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
- FTFULL TIME St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
- FTSt. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps · Vancouver Whitecaps win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassClose to call, with Vancouver Whitecaps just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: St. Louis City 38%, draw 24%, Vancouver Whitecaps 38%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.
Pre-match prediction
Published 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off
St. Louis City win38%
Vancouver Whitecaps win38%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 01:30
VenueCitypark
RefereeFilip Dujic
Match timeline
All events
St. Louis CityMIN
Vancouver WhitecapsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
St. Louis City
3-4-3
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
St. Louis City
Vancouver Whitecaps
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.
Line-ups
St. Louis City
3-4-3
1 R. Bürki
21 D. Polvara
32 T. Baumgartl
27 F. Fall
6 C. Wallem
8 C. Durkin
24 D. Edelman
14 T. Totland
19 C. Holse
9 Rafael Navarro
23 A. Mățan
Coach · Y. Damet
Substitutes
28 · M. Perez
20 · Rafael Santos
11 · S. Becher
42 · D. Downs
77 · Jeong Sang-Bin
39 · B. Lundt
5 · L. MacNaughton
99 · J. Orozco
7 · T. Ostrák
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1
1 Y. Takaoka
18 É. Ocampo
2 M. Laborda
6 R. Priso
28 T. Johnson
8 O. Larraz
20 A. Cubas
11 E. Sabbi
25 R. Gauld
77 Y. Diaby
24 B. White
Coach · J. Sørensen
Substitutes
14 · Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez
23 · A. Cvetković
41 · N. Djordjevic
19 · R. Elloumi
29 · M. Gherasimencov
70 · Rui Modesto
7 · C. Sabaly
32 · I. Boehmer
4 · R. Veselinović
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
St. Louis City
3-4-3
1 R. Bürki
21 D. Polvara
32 T. Baumgartl
27 F. Fall
6 C. Wallem
8 C. Durkin
24 D. Edelman
14 T. Totland
19 C. Holse
9 Rafael Navarro
23 A. Mățan
Coach · Y. Damet
Substitutes
28 · M. Perez
20 · Rafael Santos
11 · S. Becher
42 · D. Downs
77 · Jeong Sang-Bin
39 · B. Lundt
5 · L. MacNaughton
99 · J. Orozco
7 · T. Ostrák
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1
1 Y. Takaoka
18 É. Ocampo
2 M. Laborda
6 R. Priso
28 T. Johnson
8 O. Larraz
20 A. Cubas
11 E. Sabbi
25 R. Gauld
77 Y. Diaby
24 B. White
Coach · J. Sørensen
Substitutes
14 · Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez
23 · A. Cvetković
41 · N. Djordjevic
19 · R. Elloumi
29 · M. Gherasimencov
70 · Rui Modesto
7 · C. Sabaly
32 · I. Boehmer
4 · R. Veselinović
We make Vancouver Whitecaps a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 39%, 38% now. The market has gone from 41% to 32% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City win | 38% | 43% | −5 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 0 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 38% | 33% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 83% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 43% | −2 |
| St. Louis City or draw | 62% | 67% | −6 |
| St. Louis City clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2023Form · last six in Major League Soccer
ST. LOUIS CITY
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | -33 | 22 |
The competition's standings.
FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Colorado Rapids
Los Angeles Galaxy
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
San Diego
Austin
Minnesota United FC
Sporting Kansas City