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St. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps

St. Louis City
0–0Full time
Vancouver Whitecaps

Major League Soccer · THU 15 OCT · Citypark

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30
St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps VANCOUVER WHITECAPS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vancouver Whitecaps win38%
The market said33%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.859
The market’s Brier score0.854

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vancouver Whitecaps win at 38%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: St. Louis City was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–24–38
  3. 2′KICK-OFF St. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps
  4. 13′Vancouver Whitecaps have had 8.0 attempts to 0.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 37–26–38
  5. 40′SUBSTITUTION · 40' St. Louis City · On: Rafael Santos · Off: Conrad Wallem
  6. 45′SECOND HALF St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
  7. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Fallou Fall · St. Louis City
  8. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Édier Ocampo · Vancouver Whitecaps
  9. 49′Vancouver Whitecaps have had 12.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 31–37–32
  10. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was St. Louis City win 31%)
  11. 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 32–35–33
  12. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  13. 64′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–48–26
  14. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Bruno Caicedo · Off: Emmanuel Sabbi
  15. 67′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
  16. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' St. Louis City · On: Simon Becher · Off: Rafael Navarro Leal
  17. 74′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–61–20
  18. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  19. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Aleksa Cvetkovic · Off: Oliver Love Larraz
  20. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Rayan Elloumi · Off: Brian White
  21. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Ralph Priso · Vancouver Whitecaps
  22. 81′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–74–13
  23. 84′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–82–9
  24. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Alexandru Măţan · St. Louis City
  25. 86′Vancouver Whitecaps have had 16.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 8–84–8
  26. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  27. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' St. Louis City · On: Lukas MacNaughton · Off: Christopher Durkin
  28. 90′Full time, 0–0. We called St. Louis City at 38% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  29. 91′We said St. Louis City at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  30. FTFULL TIME St. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
  31. FTSt. Louis City 0–0 Vancouver Whitecaps · Vancouver Whitecaps win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Vancouver Whitecaps just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Louis City 38%, draw 24%, Vancouver Whitecaps 38%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on St. Louis City v Vancouver WhitecapsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off

St. Louis City win38%
Draw24%
Vancouver Whitecaps win38%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 01:30

VenueCitypark

RefereeFilip Dujic

Line-ups

St. Louis City

3-4-3

Vancouver Whitecaps

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Louis City

Vancouver Whitecaps

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vancouver Whitecaps283151
2St. Louis City281650

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

St. Louis City

3-4-3

1 R. Bürki

21 D. Polvara

32 T. Baumgartl

27 F. Fall

6 C. Wallem

8 C. Durkin

24 D. Edelman

14 T. Totland

19 C. Holse

9 Rafael Navarro

23 A. Mățan

Coach · Y. Damet

Substitutes

28 · M. Perez

20 · Rafael Santos

11 · S. Becher

42 · D. Downs

77 · Jeong Sang-Bin

39 · B. Lundt

5 · L. MacNaughton

99 · J. Orozco

7 · T. Ostrák

Vancouver Whitecaps

4-2-3-1

1 Y. Takaoka

18 É. Ocampo

2 M. Laborda

6 R. Priso

28 T. Johnson

8 O. Larraz

20 A. Cubas

11 E. Sabbi

25 R. Gauld

77 Y. Diaby

24 B. White

Coach · J. Sørensen

Substitutes

14 · Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez

23 · A. Cvetković

41 · N. Djordjevic

19 · R. Elloumi

29 · M. Gherasimencov

70 · Rui Modesto

7 · C. Sabaly

32 · I. Boehmer

4 · R. Veselinović

Our number · vancouver whitecaps winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off
38% The market33%
Us38%
Market33%

We make Vancouver Whitecaps a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · St. Louis City v Vancouver Whitecaps1.60 – 1.62
Last six in Major League SoccerW5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 50 v 512 v 1
The market · Vancouver Whitecaps win33% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 07:2414 OCT 23:16
Our probability · vancouver whitecaps win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. The market has gone from 41% to 32% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
St. Louis City win38%43%−5
Draw24%25%0
Vancouver Whitecaps win38%33%+6
Over 2.5 goals62%63%−1
Both teams to score64%65%−1
Over 1.5 goals83%83%+1
Over 3.5 goals40%43%−2
St. Louis City or draw62%67%−6
St. Louis City clean sheet20%––
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 4.7 6.0 5.2 2.8 1 5.9 10.8 8.3 4.5 2 5.1 8.2 6.6 3.6 3 2.8 4.4 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+St. Louis City down, Vancouver Whitecaps across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.56 of 7
Both scored5 of 7
Last meetingsVAN 1–3 STL · VAN 3–2 STL · STL 0–0 VAN · STL 1–4 VAN

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

ST. LOUIS CITY

WDWWWW3–1 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 6–2

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS

WLWDLD3–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vancouver Whitecaps283151
2St. Louis City281650
3FC Dallas28747
4San Jose Earthquakes281046
5Houston Dynamo28245
6Los Angeles FC291342
7Seattle Sounders28341
8Colorado Rapids28037
9Los Angeles Galaxy29-1136
10Portland Timbers28-333
11Real Salt Lake28-532
12San Diego28-332
13Austin28-1531
14Minnesota United FC28-930
15Sporting Kansas City28-3322

The competition's standings.