St. Louis City v San Diego prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

St. Louis CityDrawSan Diego

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · St. Louis City 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St. Louis City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Louis City 48%, draw 23%, San Diego 29%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on St. Louis City v San DiegoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

St. Louis City win48%

Draw23%

San Diego win29%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueCITYPARK

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Louis City

San Diego

6Days since last match6

Last match: 25 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	St. Louis City	31	+12	51
13	San Diego	30	−3	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st. louis city winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make St. Louis City a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St. Louis City v San Diego~~1.96 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 20 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 51 v 34~~3 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Louis City win	48%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
San Diego win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
St. Louis City or draw	71%	–	–
St. Louis City clean sheet	23%	–	–
San Diego clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 4.3 3.5 1 5.8 9.8 6.8 3.4 2 6.2 9.0 6.6 3.3 3 4.0 5.9 4.3 2.1 4 2.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Louis City down, San Diego across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St. Louis City at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Diego away: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.96 goals for St. Louis City, 1.48 for San Diego. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–0 STL · STL 1–2 SAN · SAN 0–0 STL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 20 Sept

ST. LOUIS CITY

WWWDLL3–1 · 3–0 · 6–2 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 0–3

SAN DIEGO

DDLDDD2–2 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	+31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	+11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	+12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	+7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	+2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Colorado Rapids	31	+1	42
8	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
10	Real Salt Lake	31	0	39
11	Minnesota United FC	31	−8	35
12	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
13	San Diego	30	−3	34
14	Austin	31	−17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	−40	22