St. Louis City v Portland Timbers prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

St. Louis CityDrawPortland Timbers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · St. Louis City 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St. Louis City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Louis City 54%, draw 22%, Portland Timbers 24%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on St. Louis City v Portland TimbersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

St. Louis City win54%

Draw22%

Portland Timbers win24%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueCITYPARK

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Louis City

Portland Timbers

7Days since last match11

Last match: 22 Oct · US Open Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st. louis city winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make St. Louis City a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St. Louis City v Portland Timbers~~2.08 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 51 v 34~~2 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Louis City win	54%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Portland Timbers win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
St. Louis City or draw	76%	–	–
St. Louis City clean sheet	26%	–	–
Portland Timbers clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.0 3.9 3.0 1 6.4 9.7 6.1 2.7 2 7.1 9.3 6.2 2.8 3 4.9 6.4 4.3 4 2.6 3.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Louis City down, Portland Timbers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St. Louis City at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Portland Timbers away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for St. Louis City, 1.34 for Portland Timbers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~POR 2–2 STL · STL 2–1 POR · POR 2–1 STL · POR 4–4 STL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

ST. LOUIS CITY

WWWWDL4–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 6–2 · 0–0 · 2–3

PORTLAND TIMBERS

LLLDLD1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22