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St. Louis City v Los Angeles Galaxy

St. Louis City

6–2Full time

Los Angeles Galaxy

Major League Soccer · MON 12 OCT · Citypark

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:30

St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy ST. LOUIS CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St. Louis City win~~53%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.336

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.201

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 45 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St. Louis City win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: St. Louis City 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–22–25
4′Carlo Holse scores for St. Louis City on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–15–11
7′We said St. Louis City at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–15–10
9′7′ and it is 2–0: Carlo Holse on the scoresheet for St. Louis City. 2–0 · 90–7–3
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 90% now
10′7′ and it is 2–0: Carlo Holse on the scoresheet for St. Louis City. 2–0 · 90–7–3
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 90% now
12′SUBSTITUTION · 11' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Klauss · Off: Kyogo Furuhashi Corrected
13′We said St. Louis City at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
16′We said St. Louis City at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' St. Louis City 3–0 Los Angeles Galaxy · Carlo Holse
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' St. Louis City 3–0 Los Angeles Galaxy · Carlo Holse
23′St. Louis City ahead on 21′ through Carlo Holse. 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 91% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 91% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 91% now
26′St. Louis City ahead on 21′ through Carlo Holse. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–2–1
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 91% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' St. Louis City 3–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Carlo Holse
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' St. Louis City win: 53% at kick-off, 97% now
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' St. Louis City 3–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Robert Taylor
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Christopher Durkin · St. Louis City
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' St. Louis City 4–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Robert Taylor
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' St. Louis City 4–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Rafael Navarro Leal
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' St. Louis City 5–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Rafael Navarro Leal
45′⚽ GOAL · 52' St. Louis City 5–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Lukas MacNaughton
45′HALF-TIME St. Louis City 5–1 Los Angeles Galaxy
46′SECOND HALF St. Louis City 5–1 Los Angeles Galaxy
47′⚽ GOAL · 52' St. Louis City 5–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Lukas MacNaughton (assist Alexandru Măţan)
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' St. Louis City 6–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Lukas MacNaughton
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' St. Louis City 6–1 Los Angeles Galaxy · Rafael Navarro Leal
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Marco Reus · Off: Pablo Ruiz Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Joseph Paintsil · Off: Robert Taylor Corrected
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Conrad Wallem · St. Louis City
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Bernardi Julian Ezequiel Aude · Los Angeles Galaxy
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy · Rafael Navarro Leal
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy · Klauss
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' St. Louis City · On: Fallou Fall · Off: Christopher Durkin Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Harbor Miller · Los Angeles Galaxy
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Carlos Emiro Garces Torres · Off: Erik Thommy Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' St. Louis City · On: Simon Becher · Off: Rafael Navarro Leal Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' St. Louis City · On: Sang-bin Jung · Off: Carlo Holse Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' St. Louis City · On: Jaziel Alberto Orozco Landeros · Off: Conrad Wallem Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' St. Louis City · On: Damion Downs · Off: Alexandru Măţan Corrected
FTFULL TIME St. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy
FTSt. Louis City 6–2 Los Angeles Galaxy · St. Louis City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

St. Louis City win53%

Draw22%

Los Angeles Galaxy win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:00

VenueCitypark

RefereeJoseph Dickerson

Line-ups

St. Louis City

3-4-3

Los Angeles Galaxy

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

St. Louis City

Los Angeles Galaxy

11Days since last match14

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

St. Louis City

3-4-3

1 R. Burki

5 L. MacNaughton

32 T. Baumgartl

21 D. Polvara

6 C. Wallem

24 D. Edelman

8 C. Durkin

14 T. Totland

19 C. Holse

9 Rafael Navarro

23 A. Matan

Coach · Yoann Damet

Substitutes

39 · B. Lundt

20 · Rafael Santos

99 · J. Orozco

27 · F. Fall

28 · M. Perez

7 · T. Ostrak

77 · S. Jeong

42 · D. Downs

11 · S. Becher

Los Angeles Galaxy

4-3-3

12 J. Marcinkowski

26 H. Miller

5 J. Glesnes

15 J. Haak

3 J. Aude

17 P. Ruiz

6 S. Roberto

27 E. Thommy

76 T. Elgersma

7 K. Furuhashi

21 R. Taylor

Coach · Greg Vanney

Substitutes

1 · N. Micovic

4 · M. Yoshida

2 · Lucas Calegari

14 · J. Nelson

25 · C. Garces

18 · M. Reus

8 · L. Sanabria

28 · J. Paintsil

99 · Joao Klauss

Our number · st. louis city winPublished 12 Oct 00:00

53% The market63%

Us53%

~~Market~~63%

We make St. Louis City a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · st. louis city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 63% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Louis City win	53%	63%	−11
Draw	22%	20%	+3
Los Angeles Galaxy win	25%	17%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	65%	67%	−2
Both teams to score	64%	63%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	44%	47%	−4
St. Louis City or draw	75%	83%	−8
St. Louis City clean sheet	26%	–	–
Los Angeles Galaxy clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.0 4.2 3.1 1 6.5 9.8 6.3 2.8 2 7.0 9.3 6.3 2.8 3 4.7 6.3 4.2 4 2.4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Louis City down, Los Angeles Galaxy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,963 Major League Soccer matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.7% of games this season, across 419 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St. Louis City at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Los Angeles Galaxy away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for St. Louis City, 1.35 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 23:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LOS 1–3 STL · STL 3–3 LOS · LOS 0–3 STL · STL 2–1 LOS

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

ST. LOUIS CITY

DWDWWW3–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 3–0

LOS ANGELES GALAXY

LWLDWW1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	28	+37	63
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	+31	51
3	Inter Miami	28	+18	49
4	Chicago Fire	28	+11	48
5	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
6	FC Dallas	28	+7	47
7	Charlotte	28	+10	46
8	San Jose Earthquakes	28	+10	46
9	New England Revolution	28	+6	46
10	Houston Dynamo	28	+2	45
11	Los Angeles FC	29	+13	42
12	Philadelphia Union	28	+11	42
13	Seattle Sounders	28	+3	41
14	Colorado Rapids	28	0	37
15	Orlando City SC	28	−15	37
16	FC Cincinnati	27	−7	36
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
18	New York Red Bulls	28	−14	36
19	New York City FC	28	+4	33
20	Portland Timbers	28	−3	33
21	San Diego	28	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	28	−5	32
23	Toronto FC	28	−11	32
24	Austin	28	−15	31
25	Minnesota United FC	28	−9	30
26	DC United	27	−12	30
27	Columbus Crew	28	−5	29
28	Atlanta United FC	28	−15	27
29	CF Montreal	28	−21	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	28	−33	22