Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:05

Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake REAL SALT LAKE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Salt Lake win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.566

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Salt Lake win at 39%.
2′KICK-OFF Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake
3′Much as we predicted: Real Salt Lake was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
13′We published Real Salt Lake at 39%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–2 · 6–10–84
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Real Salt Lake
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Real Salt Lake win: 39% at kick-off, 84% now
14′11′: Morgan Guilavogui on the scoresheet for Real Salt Lake. 0–2 · 6–10–84
16′Real Salt Lake ahead on 14′ through Sergi Solans. 0–2. 0–2 · 6–10–84
19′We published Real Salt Lake at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–2 · 5–10–85
26′We published Real Salt Lake at 39%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–2 · 14–20–65
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Real Salt Lake
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Real Salt Lake win: 39% at kick-off, 65% now
28′Taylor Calheira scores for Sporting Kansas City on 26′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 14–20–66
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Real Salt Lake win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Real Salt Lake
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Real Salt Lake
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Luc De Fougerolles · Real Salt Lake
49′We published Real Salt Lake at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
60′We published Real Salt Lake at 39%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Real Salt Lake win: 39% at kick-off, 94% now
61′61′: Morgan Guilavogui on the scoresheet for Real Salt Lake, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
66′We published Real Salt Lake at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sporting Kansas City · On: Osvaldo Pedro Capemba · Off: Stephen Afrifa
67′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–96
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sporting Kansas City · On: Jacob Davis · Off: Kwaku Agyabeng
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Real Salt Lake · On: Chadwick Zachary Booth · Off: Dominik Marczuk
77′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Juan Sanabria · Real Salt Lake
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sporting Kansas City · On: Ian James · Off: Zorhan Bassong
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sporting Kansas City · On: Seymour Garfield-Reid · Off: Taylor Calheira
77′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Calvin Harris · Sporting Kansas City
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Jacob Bartlett · Sporting Kansas City
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Salt Lake · On: Ariath Piol · Off: Sergi Solans
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Salt Lake · On: Aiden Hezarkhani · Off: Saba Lobjanidze
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Real Salt Lake win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
86′We published Real Salt Lake at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Salt Lake · On: Sam Junqua · Off: Luc De Fougerolles
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Real Salt Lake · On: Alexandros Katranis · Off: Morgan Guilavogui
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sporting Kansas City · On: Ruben Ramos Jr · Off: Calvin Harris
90′Full time, 1–3. We called Real Salt Lake at 39% — that one lands. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Jansen Miller · Sporting Kansas City
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Chadwick Zachary Booth · Real Salt Lake
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Stijn Spierings · Real Salt Lake
FTFULL TIME Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake
FTSporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake · Real Salt Lake win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Real Salt Lake just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Kansas City 37%, draw 24%, Real Salt Lake 39%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt LakeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Kansas City win37%

Draw24%

Real Salt Lake win39%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueChildren's Mercy Park

RefereeAlexis Da Silva

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City

4-4-2

Real Salt Lake

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Kansas City

Real Salt Lake

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Real Salt Lake	29	−5	33
15	Sporting Kansas City	29	−37	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City

4-4-2

30 S. Cleveland

16 J. Bartlett

15 Jansen Miller

28 Wyatt Meyer

18 E. Karić

11 André Luiz

20 K. Agyabeng

22 Z. Bassong

14 C. Harris

19 T. Calheira

17 S. Afrifa

Coach · R. Wicky

Substitutes

93 · M. Suleymanov

8 · J. Davis

7 · Capita

23 · E. Bartlow

29 · S. Reid

2 · I. James

1 · J. Pulskamp

24 · R. Ramos

99 · J. Reid

Real Salt Lake

5-4-1

1 Rafael Cabral

11 D. Marczuk

3 K. Henry

44 L. De Fougerolles

26 P. Quinton

8 J. Sanabria

9 M. Guilavogui

6 S. Spierings

92 N. Caliskan

12 S. Lobzhanidze

22 S. Solans

Coach · P. Mastroeni

Substitutes

25 · Colin Guske

39 · A. Hezarkhani

29 · S. Junqua

98 · A. Katránis

19 · A. Piol

31 · M. Stajduhar

2 · D. Yedlin

23 · Chadwick Zachary Booth

28 · Dušan Žagar

Our number · real salt lake winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Real Salt Lake a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Kansas City v Real Salt Lake~~1.58 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 33~~15 v 11

~~The market · Real Salt Lake win~~42% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Salt Lake win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. The market has gone from 41% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Kansas City win	37%	34%	+3
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Real Salt Lake win	39%	42%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Both teams to score	64%	67%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	84%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Sporting Kansas City or draw	61%	58%	+3
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet	20%	–	–
Real Salt Lake clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 4.7 6.1 5.4 2.9 1 5.8 10.9 8.4 4.6 2 5.0 8.1 6.6 3.6 3 2.7 4.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Kansas City down, Real Salt Lake across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,981 Major League Soccer matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 437 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Kansas City at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Real Salt Lake away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Sporting Kansas City, 1.64 for Real Salt Lake. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 01:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REA 3–1 SPO · REA 2–1 SPO · SPO 1–1 REA · SPO 3–4 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

SPORTING KANSAS CITY

WLWLDL3–1 · 3–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–4

REAL SALT LAKE

LLLWLD0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	+31	52
2	St. Louis City	29	+16	51
3	FC Dallas	29	+8	50
4	San Jose Earthquakes	29	+10	47
5	Houston Dynamo	29	+2	46
6	Los Angeles FC	30	+15	45
7	Seattle Sounders	29	+2	41
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	−9	39
9	Colorado Rapids	29	0	38
10	Portland Timbers	29	−5	33
11	Real Salt Lake	29	−5	33
12	San Diego	29	−3	33
13	Minnesota United FC	29	−9	31
14	Austin	29	−17	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	29	−37	22