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Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers

Sporting Kansas City

3–3Full time

Portland Timbers

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Children's Mercy Park

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland Timbers PORTLAND TIMBERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Portland Timbers win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.878

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Portland Timbers win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Portland Timbers was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 38–22–40
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Kansas City v Portland Timbers
9′We published Portland Timbers at 39%. Our model now makes it 63%. 0–1 · 18–19–63
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Sporting Kansas City 0–1 Portland Timbers
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
9′⚽ GOAL · 10' Sporting Kansas City 0–1 Portland Timbers
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 39% now
12′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Vincent Janssen · Portland Timbers
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Portland Timbers win: 39% at kick-off, 63% now
45′SECOND HALF Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Portland Timbers
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Portland Timbers · David Da Costa
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Sporting Kansas City 0–2 Portland Timbers · Vincent Janssen
52′PENALTY MISSED · 52' André Luiz · Sporting Kansas City
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Portland Timbers · André Luiz
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Portland Timbers · André Luiz
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Portland Timbers · On: Antony · Off: Vincent Janssen Corrected
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Portland Timbers · Ariel Lassiter
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Portland Timbers · On: Jose Caicedo · Off: Diego Chará Corrected
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Sporting Kansas City 2–3 Portland Timbers · Ariel Lassiter
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Sporting Kansas City 2–3 Portland Timbers · Calvin Harris
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland Timbers · Justin Reynolds
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sporting Kansas City · On: Ian James · Off: Justin Reynolds Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sporting Kansas City · On: Ruben Ramos Jr · Off: Stephen Afrifa Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sporting Kansas City · On: Seymour Garfield-Reid · Off: Taylor Calheira Corrected
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland Timbers · André Luiz
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Portland Timbers · On: Eric Izoita · Off: Julio Joao Ortiz Landazuri Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sporting Kansas City · On: Jacob Bartlett · Off: Zorhan Bassong Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Sporting Kansas City · On: Shapi Suleymanov · Off: André Luiz Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Portland Timbers · On: Ian Smith · Off: Ariel Lassiter Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Portland Timbers · On: Alexander Aravena · Off: Kristoffer Velde Corrected
FTFULL TIME Sporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland Timbers
FTSporting Kansas City 3–3 Portland Timbers · Portland Timbers win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sporting Kansas City win38%

Draw23%

Portland Timbers win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:30

Venue · Children's Mercy Park

Referee · Pierre Luce Lauziere

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City

4-4-2

30 S. Cleveland

13 J. Reynolds

15 J. Miller

28 W. Meyer

18 E. Karic

11 Andre Luiz

22 Z. Bassong

20 K. Agyabeng

14 C. Harris

19 T. Calheira

17 S. Afrifa

Coach · Raphael Wicky

Substitutes

1 · J. Pulskamp

12 · J. Kortkamp

99 · J. Reid

16 · J. Bartlett

23 · E. Bartlow

2 · I. James

24 · R. Ramos

93 · S. Suleymanov

29 · S. Reid

Portland Timbers

4-3-3

41 J. Pantemis

12 R. Hernandez

2 J. Waterman

4 K. Miller

27 J. Fory

80 J. Ortiz

21 D. Chara

10 D. Da Costa

7 A. Lassiter

14 V. Janssen

99 K. Velde

Coach · Jack Cassidy

Substitutes

25 · T. Muse

15 · E. Miller

23 · I. Smith

30 · J. Caicedo

73 · E. Izoita

17 · C. Bassett

28 · A. Aravena

22 · O. Fernandez

11 · Antony

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City

4-4-2

30 S. Cleveland

13 J. Reynolds

15 J. Miller

28 W. Meyer

18 E. Karic

11 Andre Luiz

22 Z. Bassong

20 K. Agyabeng

14 C. Harris

19 T. Calheira

17 S. Afrifa

Coach · Raphael Wicky

Substitutes

1 · J. Pulskamp

12 · J. Kortkamp

99 · J. Reid

16 · J. Bartlett

23 · E. Bartlow

2 · I. James

24 · R. Ramos

93 · S. Suleymanov

29 · S. Reid

Portland Timbers

4-3-3

41 J. Pantemis

12 R. Hernandez

2 J. Waterman

4 K. Miller

27 J. Fory

80 J. Ortiz

21 D. Chara

10 D. Da Costa

7 A. Lassiter

14 V. Janssen

99 K. Velde

Coach · Jack Cassidy

Substitutes

25 · T. Muse

15 · E. Miller

23 · I. Smith

30 · J. Caicedo

73 · E. Izoita

17 · C. Bassett

28 · A. Aravena

22 · O. Fernandez

11 · Antony

Our number · portland timbers winPublished 11 Oct 01:31

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Portland Timbers a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · portland timbers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 37% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Kansas City win	38%	35%	+3
Draw	23%	24%	0
Portland Timbers win	39%	41%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Both teams to score	68%	71%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Sporting Kansas City or draw	61%	59%	+2
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet	17%	–	–
Portland Timbers clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.6 5.0 4.8 2.8 1 4.9 9.7 8.1 4.8 2.1 2 4.6 7.9 6.9 4.1 3 2.6 4.6 4.0 2.4 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Kansas City down, Portland Timbers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 4.27 goals a meeting; 8 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Kansas City at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Portland Timbers away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Sporting Kansas City, 1.77 for Portland Timbers. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 01:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.27

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~POR 6–0 SPO · POR 1–0 SPO · SPO 2–4 POR · POR 2–1 SPO

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

SPORTING KANSAS CITY

LLWLWL0–3 · 3–4 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 2–0 · 1–2

PORTLAND TIMBERS

LWDLLL1–2 · 5–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21