Sporting Kansas City v Austin prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 03:01

Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Austin SPORTING KANSAS CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Kansas City win~~42%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.672

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Kansas City win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sporting Kansas City 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–34
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Kansas City v Austin
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Kwaku Agyabeng · Sporting Kansas City
44′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Austin · On: Besard Sabovic · Off: Ervin Torres
44′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Mikkel Desler · Austin
44′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Jacob Davis · Sporting Kansas City
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Kansas City 0–0 Austin
45′SECOND HALF Sporting Kansas City 0–0 Austin
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sporting Kansas City · On: Calvin Harris · Off: Osvaldo Pedro Capemba
48′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Stephen Afrifa · Sporting Kansas City
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Sporting Kansas City win 35%)
53′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Ilie Sánchez · Austin
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Sporting Kansas City win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Zorhan Bassong · Sporting Kansas City
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 32–41–27
55′We said Sporting Kansas City at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Sporting Kansas City 1–0 Austin
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sporting Kansas City win: 42% at kick-off, 73% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Sporting Kansas City win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 41%)
58′55′: Stephen Afrifa on the scoresheet for Sporting Kansas City, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
60′We said Sporting Kansas City at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
63′We said Sporting Kansas City at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–48–24
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Austin
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Sporting Kansas City win: 42% at kick-off, 28% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Sporting Kansas City win 76%)
64′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 28–49–24
65′Austin level it on 64′ through Myrto Uzuni. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–50–23
69′We said Sporting Kansas City at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–54–21
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Sporting Kansas City · On: Ruben Ramos Jr · Off: Taylor Calheira
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Sporting Kansas City win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Austin · On: Przemyslaw Płacheta · Off: Mikkel Desler
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sporting Kansas City · On: Jacob Bartlett · Off: Zorhan Bassong
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sporting Kansas City · On: Owen Wolff · Off: André Luiz
76′We said Sporting Kansas City at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–17
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Austin · On: Christian Ramirez · Off: Brandon Vazquez
81′We said Sporting Kansas City at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sporting Kansas City win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
85′We said Sporting Kansas City at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–8
86′We said Sporting Kansas City at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Austin
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Sporting Kansas City win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Austin win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 83%)
87′16 shots for Sporting Kansas City, 11 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–92
87′Myrto Uzuni scores for Austin on 86′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–7–92
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Sporting Kansas City · On: Shapi Suleymanov · Off: Kwaku Agyabeng
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Owen Wolff · Sporting Kansas City
FTFULL TIME Sporting Kansas City 1–2 Austin
FTSporting Kansas City 1–2 Austin · Sporting Kansas City win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sporting Kansas City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sporting Kansas City 42%, draw 24%, Austin 34%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Sporting Kansas City v AustinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sporting Kansas City win42%

Draw24%

Austin win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueChildren's Mercy Park

RefereeRicardo Fierro

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City

4-4-2

Austin

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sporting Kansas City

Austin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting Kansas City

4-4-2

30 S. Cleveland

8 J. Davis

15 Jansen Miller

28 Wyatt Meyer

18 E. Karić

11 André Luiz

20 K. Agyabeng

22 Z. Bassong

7 Capita

19 T. Calheira

17 S. Afrifa

Coach · R. Wicky

Substitutes

93 · M. Suleymanov

99 · J. Reid

24 · R. Ramos

1 · J. Pulskamp

2 · I. James

23 · E. Bartlow

33 · O. Wolff

14 · C. Harris

16 · J. Bartlett

Austin

3-4-3

12 D. Las

3 M. Desler

30 J. Rosales

29 Guilherme Biro

24 Jorge Alastuey

38 Ervin Torres

6 Ilie Sánchez

17 J. Gallagher

11 F. Torres

9 B. Vázquez

10 M. Uzuni

Coach · D. Arnaud

Substitutes

21 · C. Ramirez

4 · B. Hines-Ike

14 · B. Šabović

1 · B. Stuver

5 · O. Svatok

77 · P. Płacheta

32 · M. Burton

35 · M. Đorđević

Our number · sporting kansas city winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market43%

Us42%

~~Market~~43%

We make Sporting Kansas City a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sporting Kansas City v Austin~~1.70 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 31~~15 v 14

~~The market · Sporting Kansas City win~~43% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sporting Kansas City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Kansas City win	42%	43%	−1
Draw	24%	24%	0
Austin win	34%	33%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	64%	−2
Both teams to score	64%	66%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
Sporting Kansas City or draw	66%	67%	−1
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet	22%	–	–
Austin clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 4.8 5.6 4.6 2.3 1 6.3 10.9 7.7 3.9 2 5.8 8.7 6.5 3.3 3 3.3 4.9 3.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Kansas City down, Austin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,997 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 453 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Kansas City at home: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Austin away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Sporting Kansas City, 1.51 for Austin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AUS 1–2 SPO · SPO 1–2 AUS · AUS 1–0 SPO · SPO 2–0 AUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

SPORTING KANSAS CITY

LWLDLL3–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 1–3

AUSTIN

WDDLLL2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22