Seattle Sounders v Houston Dynamo prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Seattle SoundersDrawHouston Dynamo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Seattle Sounders 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Seattle Sounders are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Seattle Sounders 49%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 24%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Seattle Sounders v Houston DynamoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Seattle Sounders win49%

Draw27%

Houston Dynamo win24%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 02:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueLumen Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Seattle Sounders

Houston Dynamo

11Days since last match11

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · seattle sounders winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Seattle Sounders a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Seattle Sounders v Houston Dynamo~~1.50 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 42 v 47~~7 v 5

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Seattle Sounders win	49%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Houston Dynamo win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Seattle Sounders or draw	76%	–	–
Seattle Sounders clean sheet	38%	–	–
Houston Dynamo clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 7.5 4.0 1 12.0 12.9 5.9 2 9.5 9.1 4.4 3 4.8 4.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Seattle Sounders down, Houston Dynamo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Seattle Sounders at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Houston Dynamo away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Seattle Sounders, 0.97 for Houston Dynamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HOU 0–1 SEA · HOU 1–3 SEA · SEA 0–0 HOU · HOU 1–1 SEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

SEATTLE SOUNDERS

WWWWLD2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

HOUSTON DYNAMO

LDLDDD0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22