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Model 1.2

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Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal

Seattle Sounders
1–1Full time
CF Montreal

Major League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Lumen Field

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 06:00
Seattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal SEATTLE SOUNDERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Seattle Sounders win61%
The market said69%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.998
The market’s Brier score1.165

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Seattle Sounders win at 61%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Seattle Sounders was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal
  4. 12′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–25–42
  5. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF Montreal
  6. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 33% now
  7. 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' CF Montreal win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Seattle Sounders win 33%)
  8. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
  9. 18′Gennadiy Synchuk scores for CF Montreal on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 31–26–43
  10. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Hassani Dotson · Seattle Sounders
  11. 21′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–44
  12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 26–28–47
  13. 34′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
  14. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Alexis Sanchez · CF Montreal
  15. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
  16. 43′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF Montreal
  18. 45′SECOND HALF Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF Montreal
  19. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Seattle Sounders · On: Kalani Kossa-Rienzi · Off: Caden Clark
  20. 50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Seattle Sounders · On: Sebastian Gomez · Off: Alexander Roldan
  21. 54′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
  22. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Victor Loturi · CF Montreal
  23. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
  24. 63′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
  25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Seattle Sounders · On: Snyder Brunell · Off: Ryan Sailor
  26. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' CF Montreal · On: Dawid Bugaj · Off: Jalen Neal
  27. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Seattle Sounders · On: Jesús Ferreira · Off: Albert Rusnák
  28. 66′7 shots for CF Montreal, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 34–53–14
  29. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Seattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal
  30. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 34% now
  31. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was CF Montreal win 14%)
  32. 68′66′: Sebastian Gomez on the scoresheet for Seattle Sounders, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 32–55–13
  33. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
  34. 80′13 shots for Seattle Sounders, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–74–8
  35. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CF Montreal · On: Wikelman·Carmona · Off: Noah Streit
  36. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CF Montreal · On: Daniel Pereira · Off: Victor Loturi
  37. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
  38. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CF Montreal · On: Olger Escobar · Off: Fabian Herbers
  39. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Seattle Sounders · On: Paul Arriola · Off: Hassani Dotson
  40. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CF Montreal · On: Matthew Longstaff · Off: Samuel Piette
  41. 92′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  42. 94′Seattle Sounders have had 18 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
  43. FTFULL TIME Seattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal
  44. FTSeattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal · Seattle Sounders win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Seattle Sounders are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Seattle Sounders 61%, draw 23%, CF Montreal 17%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Seattle Sounders v CF MontrealBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Seattle Sounders win61%
Draw23%
CF Montreal win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueLumen Field

RefereeFotis Bazakos

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders

4-2-3-1

CF Montreal

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Seattle Sounders

CF Montreal

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders

4-2-3-1

26 A. Thomas

16 A. Roldan

28 Y. Gómez

4 R. Sailor

5 N. Tolo

31 H. Dotson

7 C. Roldan

8 C. Clark

11 A. Rusnák

13 J. Morris

9 D. Joveljić

Coach · B. Schmetzer

Substitutes

19 · D. Musovski

17 · P. Arriola

37 · S. Brunell

27 · J. Ferreira

24 · S. Frei

90 · S. Gomez

45 · P. Kingston

85 · K. Kossa-Rienzi

35 · Antino Lopez

CF Montreal

4-2-3-1

1 S. Breza

2 J. Neal

24 E. Morales

5 B. Craig

28 V. Radojević

6 S. Piette

22 V. Loturi

18 H. Synchuk

21 F. Herbers

23 N. Streit

10 A. Sánchez

Coach · Philippe Eullaffroy

Substitutes

7 · D. Pereira

13 · L. Petrasso

14 · D. Ríos

8 · M. Longstaff

41 · S. Keita

29 · O. Escobar

16 · W. Carmona

27 · D. Bugaj

Our number · seattle sounders winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:01 · locked at kick-off
61% The market69%
Us61%
Market69%

We make Seattle Sounders a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal1.95 – 0.91
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5
The market · Seattle Sounders win69% · ours 61%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 03:17
Our probability · Seattle Sounders win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 61% now. The market has gone from 62% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Seattle Sounders win61%69%−8
Draw23%18%+5
CF Montreal win17%13%+4
Over 2.5 goals54%66%−12
Both teams to score51%58%−7
Over 1.5 goals78%84%−6
Over 3.5 goals32%46%−14
Seattle Sounders or draw83%87%−4
Seattle Sounders clean sheet40%––
CF Montreal clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%
0123450 6.5 4.8 2.4 1 10.7 10.7 4.6 2 10.8 9.7 4.4 3 7.0 6.3 2.9 4 3.5 3.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Seattle Sounders down, CF Montreal across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSEA 5–0 CFM · SEA 1–2 CFM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept

SEATTLE SOUNDERS

DWWWWL3–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

CF MONTREAL

LLLWLL1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–3