Home › Football › Major League Soccer › Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal
Back

Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal
Seattle Sounders
CF MontrealMajor League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Lumen Field
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Seattle Sounders win at 61%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Seattle Sounders was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–17
- 1′KICK-OFF Seattle Sounders v CF Montreal
- 12′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–25–42
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF Montreal
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 33% now
- 12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' CF Montreal win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Seattle Sounders win 33%)
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
- 18′Gennadiy Synchuk scores for CF Montreal on 13′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 31–26–43
- 18′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Hassani Dotson · Seattle Sounders
- 21′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–44
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 26–28–47
- 34′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Alexis Sanchez · CF Montreal
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
- 43′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
- 45′HALF-TIME Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF Montreal
- 45′SECOND HALF Seattle Sounders 0–1 CF Montreal
- 50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Seattle Sounders · On: Kalani Kossa-Rienzi · Off: Caden Clark
- 50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Seattle Sounders · On: Sebastian Gomez · Off: Alexander Roldan
- 54′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
- 54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Victor Loturi · CF Montreal
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
- 63′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Seattle Sounders · On: Snyder Brunell · Off: Ryan Sailor
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' CF Montreal · On: Dawid Bugaj · Off: Jalen Neal
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Seattle Sounders · On: Jesús Ferreira · Off: Albert Rusnák
- 66′7 shots for CF Montreal, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 34–53–14
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Seattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 34% now
- 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was CF Montreal win 14%)
- 68′66′: Sebastian Gomez on the scoresheet for Seattle Sounders, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 32–55–13
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
- 80′13 shots for Seattle Sounders, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 18–74–8
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CF Montreal · On: Wikelman·Carmona · Off: Noah Streit
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CF Montreal · On: Daniel Pereira · Off: Victor Loturi
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Seattle Sounders win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CF Montreal · On: Olger Escobar · Off: Fabian Herbers
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Seattle Sounders · On: Paul Arriola · Off: Hassani Dotson
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CF Montreal · On: Matthew Longstaff · Off: Samuel Piette
- 92′We said Seattle Sounders at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
- 94′Seattle Sounders have had 18 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
- FTFULL TIME Seattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal
- FTSeattle Sounders 1–1 CF Montreal · Seattle Sounders win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Seattle Sounders are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Seattle Sounders 61%, draw 23%, CF Montreal 17%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Seattle Sounders win61%
CF Montreal win17%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30
RoundMatchday 30
VenueLumen Field
RefereeFotis Bazakos
Match timeline
All events
Seattle SoundersMIN
CF MontrealEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1
CF Montreal
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Seattle Sounders
CF Montreal
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1
26 A. Thomas
16 A. Roldan
28 Y. Gómez
4 R. Sailor
5 N. Tolo
31 H. Dotson
7 C. Roldan
8 C. Clark
11 A. Rusnák
13 J. Morris
9 D. Joveljić
Coach · B. Schmetzer
Substitutes
19 · D. Musovski
17 · P. Arriola
37 · S. Brunell
27 · J. Ferreira
24 · S. Frei
90 · S. Gomez
45 · P. Kingston
85 · K. Kossa-Rienzi
35 · Antino Lopez
CF Montreal
4-2-3-1
1 S. Breza
2 J. Neal
24 E. Morales
5 B. Craig
28 V. Radojević
6 S. Piette
22 V. Loturi
18 H. Synchuk
21 F. Herbers
23 N. Streit
10 A. Sánchez
Coach · Philippe Eullaffroy
Substitutes
7 · D. Pereira
13 · L. Petrasso
14 · D. Ríos
8 · M. Longstaff
41 · S. Keita
29 · O. Escobar
16 · W. Carmona
27 · D. Bugaj
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1
26 A. Thomas
16 A. Roldan
28 Y. Gómez
4 R. Sailor
5 N. Tolo
31 H. Dotson
7 C. Roldan
8 C. Clark
11 A. Rusnák
13 J. Morris
9 D. Joveljić
Coach · B. Schmetzer
Substitutes
19 · D. Musovski
17 · P. Arriola
37 · S. Brunell
27 · J. Ferreira
24 · S. Frei
90 · S. Gomez
45 · P. Kingston
85 · K. Kossa-Rienzi
35 · Antino Lopez
CF Montreal
4-2-3-1
1 S. Breza
2 J. Neal
24 E. Morales
5 B. Craig
28 V. Radojević
6 S. Piette
22 V. Loturi
18 H. Synchuk
21 F. Herbers
23 N. Streit
10 A. Sánchez
Coach · Philippe Eullaffroy
Substitutes
7 · D. Pereira
13 · L. Petrasso
14 · D. Ríos
8 · M. Longstaff
41 · S. Keita
29 · O. Escobar
16 · W. Carmona
27 · D. Bugaj
We make Seattle Sounders a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 60%, 61% now. The market has gone from 62% to 69% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders win | 61% | 69% | −8 |
| Draw | 23% | 18% | +5 |
| CF Montreal win | 17% | 13% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 66% | −12 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 58% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 46% | −14 |
| Seattle Sounders or draw | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Seattle Sounders clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
| CF Montreal clean sheet | 15% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept
SEATTLE SOUNDERS
CF MONTREAL