San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Jose EarthquakesDrawReal Salt Lake

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · San Jose Earthquakes 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Jose Earthquakes 48%, draw 24%, Real Salt Lake 28%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt LakeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes win48%

Draw24%

Real Salt Lake win28%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenuePayPal Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Jose Earthquakes

Real Salt Lake

6Days since last match6

Last match: 25 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	+7	48
10	Real Salt Lake	31	0	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san jose earthquakes winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make San Jose Earthquakes a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Jose Earthquakes v Real Salt Lake~~1.80 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 48 v 39~~4 v 10

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Jose Earthquakes win	48%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Real Salt Lake win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
San Jose Earthquakes or draw	72%	–	–
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet	26%	–	–
Real Salt Lake clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 5.2 3.9 1 7.2 11.0 6.9 3.1 2 7.0 9.2 6.2 2.8 3 4.2 5.6 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Jose Earthquakes down, Real Salt Lake across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Jose Earthquakes at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Real Salt Lake away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for San Jose Earthquakes, 1.34 for Real Salt Lake. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–1 SAN · REA 2–1 SAN · SAN 4–0 REA · SAN 0–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 19 Sept

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

DWDDDL2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–3

REAL SALT LAKE

LWLDWW0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	31	+31	55
2	FC Dallas	31	+11	54
3	St. Louis City	31	+12	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	31	+7	48
5	Houston Dynamo	31	+2	48
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	31	+2	43
8	Colorado Rapids	31	+1	42
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
10	Real Salt Lake	31	0	39
11	Portland Timbers	31	−4	37
12	San Diego	31	−3	35
13	Minnesota United FC	31	−8	35
14	Austin	31	−17	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	31	−40	22