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San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC

San Jose Earthquakes
1–1Full time
Nashville SC

Major League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Avaya Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 06:00
San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC NASHVILLE SC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Nashville SC win40%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.838
The market’s Brier score0.896

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nashville SC win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nashville SC 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–25–40
  3. 1′KICK-OFF San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC
  4. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Shakur Mohammed · Nashville SC
  5. 33′We said Nashville SC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 11–20–69
  6. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Nashville SC
  7. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
  8. 37′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–69
  9. 38′34′: Hany Mukhtar on the scoresheet for Nashville SC, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–21–69
  10. 40′We said Nashville SC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–21–70
  11. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
  12. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Beau Leroux · San Jose Earthquakes
  13. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Preston Judd · San Jose Earthquakes
  14. 45′HALF-TIME San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Nashville SC
  15. 46′SECOND HALF San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Nashville SC
  16. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nashville SC · On: Elias Saad · Off: Shakur Mohammed
  17. 54′8 shots for San Jose Earthquakes, 3 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
  18. 59′We said Nashville SC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
  19. 68′San Jose Earthquakes have had 13 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–18–79
  20. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Ousseni Bouda · Off: Timo Werner
  21. 70′We said Nashville SC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  22. 70′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 20–57–23
  23. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
  24. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC
  25. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 23% now
  26. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Nashville SC win 23%)
  27. 72′San Jose Earthquakes level it on 70′ through Preston Judd. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–60–21
  28. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  29. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nashville SC · On: Edvard Sandvik Tagseth · Off: Patrick Yazbek
  30. 77′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 15–68–17
  31. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nashville SC · On: Reed Baker-Whiting · Off: Daniel Lovitz
  32. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Paul Marie · Off: Preston Judd
  33. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Nick Fernandez · Off: Jamar Ricketts
  34. 80′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
  35. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nashville SC · On: Warren Madrigal · Off: Cristian Espinoza
  36. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  37. 85′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–8
  38. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Max Floriani · Off: Jack Jasinski
  39. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Ian Harkes · Off: Ronaldo Vieira
  40. 91′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  41. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ian Harkes · San Jose Earthquakes
  42. FTFULL TIME San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC
  43. FTSan Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC · Nashville SC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nashville SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Jose Earthquakes 34%, draw 25%, Nashville SC 40%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes win34%
Draw25%
Nashville SC win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueAvaya Stadium

RefereeJoseph Dickerson

Line-ups

San Jose Earthquakes

5-3-2

Nashville SC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Jose Earthquakes

Nashville SC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

San Jose Earthquakes

5-3-2

1 A. Gunn

17 Jack Jasinski

5 D. Munie

4 D. Romney

18 R. Roberts

2 J. Ricketts

34 Beau Leroux

14 R. Vieira

23 E. Löwen

19 P. Judd

11 T. Werner

Coach · B. Arena

Substitutes

25 · M. Floriani

36 · E. Edwards

87 · Vítor Costa

20 · N. Fernandez

6 · I. Harkes

7 · O. Bouda

3 · P. Marie

21 · N. Buck

9 · L. Jovanović

Nashville SC

4-2-3-1

99 B. Schwake

31 A. Najar

4 J. Palacios

3 M. Woledzi

2 D. Lovitz

8 P. Yazbek

16 M. Corcoran

7 C. Espinoza

10 H. Mukhtar

14 S. Mohammed

9 S. Surridge

Coach · B. Callaghan

Substitutes

6 · B. Acosta

22 · J. Bauer

41 · W. Madrigal

5 · J. Maher

19 · A. Muyl

1 · J. Willis

20 · E. Tagseth

11 · E. Saad

27 · R. Baker-Whiting

Our number · nashville sc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
40% The market50%
Us40%
Market50%

We make Nashville SC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC1.43 – 1.57
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 SeptW3 D3 L0 · W4 D1 L1
The market · Nashville SC win50% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 03:17
Our probability · Nashville SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
San Jose Earthquakes win34%26%+8
Draw25%24%+1
Nashville SC win40%50%−10
Over 2.5 goals58%62%−4
Both teams to score60%64%−4
Over 1.5 goals80%83%−3
Over 3.5 goals35%42%−7
San Jose Earthquakes or draw60%50%+10
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet21%––
Nashville SC clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 5.7 7.3 6.2 3.2 1 6.6 11.7 8.7 4.6 2 5.1 7.9 6.2 3.2 3 2.4 3.8 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+San Jose Earthquakes down, Nashville SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsNAS 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–1 NAS · NAS 0–0 SAN · SAN 2–2 NAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

WWDWDD3–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

NASHVILLE SC

LDWWWW1–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 4–0