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San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes
Nashville SCMajor League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Avaya Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Nashville SC win at 40%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Nashville SC 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 34–25–40
- 1′KICK-OFF San Jose Earthquakes v Nashville SC
- 29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Shakur Mohammed · Nashville SC
- 33′We said Nashville SC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 11–20–69
- 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Nashville SC
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 69% now
- 37′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–69
- 38′34′: Hany Mukhtar on the scoresheet for Nashville SC, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–21–69
- 40′We said Nashville SC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–21–70
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Beau Leroux · San Jose Earthquakes
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Preston Judd · San Jose Earthquakes
- 45′HALF-TIME San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Nashville SC
- 46′SECOND HALF San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Nashville SC
- 48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Nashville SC · On: Elias Saad · Off: Shakur Mohammed
- 54′8 shots for San Jose Earthquakes, 3 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 7–20–73
- 59′We said Nashville SC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
- 68′San Jose Earthquakes have had 13 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 3–18–79
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Ousseni Bouda · Off: Timo Werner
- 70′We said Nashville SC at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
- 70′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 20–57–23
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 23% now
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Nashville SC win 23%)
- 72′San Jose Earthquakes level it on 70′ through Preston Judd. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–60–21
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
- 74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nashville SC · On: Edvard Sandvik Tagseth · Off: Patrick Yazbek
- 77′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 15–68–17
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nashville SC · On: Reed Baker-Whiting · Off: Daniel Lovitz
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Paul Marie · Off: Preston Judd
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Nick Fernandez · Off: Jamar Ricketts
- 80′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 12–74–14
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nashville SC · On: Warren Madrigal · Off: Cristian Espinoza
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Nashville SC win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
- 85′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–84–8
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Max Floriani · Off: Jack Jasinski
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Ian Harkes · Off: Ronaldo Vieira
- 91′We said Nashville SC at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ian Harkes · San Jose Earthquakes
- FTFULL TIME San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC
- FTSan Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Nashville SC · Nashville SC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Nashville SC are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: San Jose Earthquakes 34%, draw 25%, Nashville SC 40%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
San Jose Earthquakes win34%
Nashville SC win40%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30
RoundMatchday 30
VenueAvaya Stadium
RefereeJoseph Dickerson
Match timeline
All events
San Jose EarthquakesMIN
Nashville SCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
San Jose Earthquakes
5-3-2
Nashville SC
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
San Jose Earthquakes
Nashville SC
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
San Jose Earthquakes
5-3-2
1 A. Gunn
17 Jack Jasinski
5 D. Munie
4 D. Romney
18 R. Roberts
2 J. Ricketts
34 Beau Leroux
14 R. Vieira
23 E. Löwen
19 P. Judd
11 T. Werner
Coach · B. Arena
Substitutes
25 · M. Floriani
36 · E. Edwards
87 · Vítor Costa
20 · N. Fernandez
6 · I. Harkes
7 · O. Bouda
3 · P. Marie
21 · N. Buck
9 · L. Jovanović
Nashville SC
4-2-3-1
99 B. Schwake
31 A. Najar
4 J. Palacios
3 M. Woledzi
2 D. Lovitz
8 P. Yazbek
16 M. Corcoran
7 C. Espinoza
10 H. Mukhtar
14 S. Mohammed
9 S. Surridge
Coach · B. Callaghan
Substitutes
6 · B. Acosta
22 · J. Bauer
41 · W. Madrigal
5 · J. Maher
19 · A. Muyl
1 · J. Willis
20 · E. Tagseth
11 · E. Saad
27 · R. Baker-Whiting
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
San Jose Earthquakes
5-3-2
1 A. Gunn
17 Jack Jasinski
5 D. Munie
4 D. Romney
18 R. Roberts
2 J. Ricketts
34 Beau Leroux
14 R. Vieira
23 E. Löwen
19 P. Judd
11 T. Werner
Coach · B. Arena
Substitutes
25 · M. Floriani
36 · E. Edwards
87 · Vítor Costa
20 · N. Fernandez
6 · I. Harkes
7 · O. Bouda
3 · P. Marie
21 · N. Buck
9 · L. Jovanović
Nashville SC
4-2-3-1
99 B. Schwake
31 A. Najar
4 J. Palacios
3 M. Woledzi
2 D. Lovitz
8 P. Yazbek
16 M. Corcoran
7 C. Espinoza
10 H. Mukhtar
14 S. Mohammed
9 S. Surridge
Coach · B. Callaghan
Substitutes
6 · B. Acosta
22 · J. Bauer
41 · W. Madrigal
5 · J. Maher
19 · A. Muyl
1 · J. Willis
20 · E. Tagseth
11 · E. Saad
27 · R. Baker-Whiting
We make Nashville SC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 50% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes win | 34% | 26% | +8 |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Nashville SC win | 40% | 50% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 62% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 64% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 42% | −7 |
| San Jose Earthquakes or draw | 60% | 50% | +10 |
| San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
| Nashville SC clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES
NASHVILLE SC