San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Jose EarthquakesDrawColorado Rapids

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:30

Before kick-off · Match result · San Jose Earthquakes 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Jose Earthquakes 50%, draw 24%, Colorado Rapids 26%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado RapidsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

San Jose Earthquakes win50%

Draw24%

Colorado Rapids win26%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 02:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenuePayPal Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Jose Earthquakes

Colorado Rapids

11Days since last match11

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san jose earthquakes winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make San Jose Earthquakes a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids~~1.84 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 48 v 39~~4 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Jose Earthquakes win	50%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Colorado Rapids win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
San Jose Earthquakes or draw	74%	–	–
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet	28%	–	–
Colorado Rapids clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.2 5.1 3.7 1 7.6 11.0 6.6 2.8 2 7.5 9.4 6.0 2.6 3 4.6 5.8 3.7 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Jose Earthquakes down, Colorado Rapids across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,998 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 454 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Jose Earthquakes at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Colorado Rapids away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for San Jose Earthquakes, 1.28 for Colorado Rapids. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 1–1 SAN · COL 2–0 SAN · COL 0–2 SAN · SAN 1–2 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

WDWDDD1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

COLORADO RAPIDS

WDLDDD1–0 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22