San Diego v Seattle Sounders prediction · Major League Soccer

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Diego are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Diego 44%, draw 26%, Seattle Sounders 30%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on San Diego v Seattle SoundersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Diego win44%

Draw26%

Seattle Sounders win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueSnapdragon Stadium

RefereeAllen Chapman

Line-ups

San Diego

4-3-3

Seattle Sounders

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Diego

Seattle Sounders

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
12	San Diego	30	−3	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

San Diego

4-3-3

13 P. Sisniega

33 O. Verhoeven

97 C. McVey

26 M. Duah

5 Kieran Sargeant

70 A. Alvarado

20 A. Godoy

12 Gabriel Pirani

10 A. Dreyer

94 C. Bakambu

90 A. Pellegrino

Coach · Mikey Varas

Substitutes

23 · S. Vines

1 · C. dos Santos

7 · M. Ingvartsen

25 · I. Pilcher

3 · D. Þórhallsson

6 · J. Tverskov

8 · O. Valakari

14 · B. B. Zamble

36 · David Mimbang

Seattle Sounders

4-2-3-1

26 A. Thomas

85 K. Kossa-Rienzi

16 A. Roldan

25 J. Ragen

5 N. Tolo

31 H. Dotson

7 C. Roldan

27 J. Ferreira

11 A. Rusnák

13 J. Morris

9 D. Joveljić

Coach · B. Schmetzer

Substitutes

37 · S. Brunell

39 · S. Hawkins

45 · P. Kingston

90 · S. Gomez

24 · S. Frei

17 · P. Arriola

8 · C. Clark

4 · R. Sailor

81 · M. Bronnik

Our number · san diego winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make San Diego a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Diego v Seattle Sounders~~1.62 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 14 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 34 v 42~~12 v 7

~~The market · San Diego win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Diego win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Diego win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Seattle Sounders win	30%	33%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	67%	−11
Both teams to score	59%	68%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	79%	85%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	33%	47%	−14
San Diego or draw	70%	67%	+3
San Diego clean sheet	28%	–	–
Seattle Sounders clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.2 6.4 4.6 1 8.1 11.9 7.3 3.2 2 7.1 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 3.8 4.9 3.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Diego down, Seattle Sounders across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Diego at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Seattle Sounders away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for San Diego, 1.30 for Seattle Sounders. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 25 Oct 02:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SEA 1–1 SAN · SEA 1–0 SAN · SAN 3–0 SEA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 14 Sept

SAN DIEGO

LDDLDD0–5 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 2–2

SEATTLE SOUNDERS

WWWWLD2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22