San Diego v Houston Dynamo

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said San Diego win at 49%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: San Diego was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
3. 1′KICK-OFF San Diego v Houston Dynamo
4. 5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Lawrence Ennali · Houston Dynamo
5. 19′We published San Diego at 49%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–9
6. 19′⚽ GOAL · 19' San Diego 1–0 Houston Dynamo
7. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' San Diego win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
8. 20′Anders Dreyer scores for San Diego on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–9
9. 20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Jonathan Bond · Houston Dynamo
10. 21′We published San Diego at 49%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
11. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' San Diego 2–0 Houston Dynamo · Anders Dreyer
12. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' San Diego win: 49% at kick-off, 92% now
13. 22′22′ and it is 2–0: Cédric Bakambu on the scoresheet for San Diego. 2–0 · 92–6–2
14. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' San Diego 2–1 Houston Dynamo
15. 24′We published San Diego at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–17–8
16. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' San Diego win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
17. 25′Houston Dynamo pull one back on 24′ through Guilherme Augusto. 2–1. 2–1 · 75–17–8
18. 30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 75–17–8
19. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' San Diego 2–2 Houston Dynamo · Guilherme Augusto
20. 33′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 43–32–25
21. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' San Diego win: 49% at kick-off, 43% now
22. 34′Mateusz Bogusz scores for Houston Dynamo on 33′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 43–33–25
23. 36′We said San Diego at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 2–3 · 16–26–58
24. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' San Diego 2–3 Houston Dynamo · Mateusz Bogusz
25. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' San Diego win: 49% at kick-off, 16% now
26. 36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Houston Dynamo win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was San Diego win 16%)
27. 38′37′ and it is 2–3: Guilherme Augusto on the scoresheet for Houston Dynamo. 2–3 · 16–26–58
28. 39′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 15–26–59
29. 42′We said San Diego at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–3 · 14–26–60
30. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Guilherme Augusto · Houston Dynamo
31. 45′SECOND HALF San Diego 2–3 Houston Dynamo
32. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Houston Dynamo · On: Duncan McGuire · Off: Lyle Foster
33. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' kieran sargeant · San Diego
34. 56′We said San Diego at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–25–66
35. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' San Diego win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
36. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' San Diego · On: David Mimbang · Off: Alejandro Alvarado Jr
37. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' San Diego · On: Gabriel Pirani · Off: Onni Valakari
38. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' San Diego · On: Marcus Ingvartsen · Off: Cédric Bakambu
39. 70′We said San Diego at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–21–75
40. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' San Diego · On: Aníbal Godoy · Off: kieran sargeant
41. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' San Diego · On: Amahl Pellegrino · Off: Elias Achouri
42. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Anders Dreyer · San Diego
43. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Houston Dynamo · On: Agustin Resch · Off: Agustín Bouzat
44. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Houston Dynamo · On: Ibrahim Aliyu · Off: Guilherme Augusto
45. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Houston Dynamo · On: Ibrahim Aliyu · Off: Guilherme Augusto
46. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Houston Dynamo · On: Agustin Resch · Off: Agustín Bouzat
47. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Aníbal Godoy · San Diego
48. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' San Diego 3–3 Houston Dynamo · Cédric Bakambu
49. 87′San Diego level it on 86′ through Gabriel Pirani. 3–3. 3–3 · 8–87–5
50. 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Houston Dynamo win 5%)
51. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Houston Dynamo · On: Duane Holmes · Off: Mateusz Bogusz
52. 91′15.0 shots for San Diego, 10.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 3–3 · 4–93–3
53. 93′San Diego have had 16.0 attempts to 10.0 and it is still 3–3. 3–3 · 3–95–2
54. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Houston Dynamo · On: Marcelo Saracchi · Off: Lawrence Ennali
55. FTFULL TIME San Diego 3–3 Houston Dynamo
56. FTSan Diego 3–3 Houston Dynamo · San Diego win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.