Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real Salt LakeDrawSt. Louis City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Salt Lake 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Salt Lake are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Salt Lake 43%, draw 25%, St. Louis City 32%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Real Salt Lake v St. Louis CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Real Salt Lake win43%

Draw25%

St. Louis City win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueRio Tinto Stadium

RefereeDrew Fischer

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Salt Lake

St. Louis City

7Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 22 Oct · US Open Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real salt lake winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market39%

Us43%

~~Market~~39%

We make Real Salt Lake a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Salt Lake v St. Louis City~~1.66 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 51~~10 v 2

~~The market · Real Salt Lake win~~39% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Salt Lake win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Salt Lake win	43%	39%	+4
Draw	25%	25%	0
St. Louis City win	32%	35%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Both teams to score	62%	65%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	37%	42%	−5
Real Salt Lake or draw	68%	65%	+3
Real Salt Lake clean sheet	24%	–	–
St. Louis City clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.4 6.0 4.7 2.2 1 7.0 11.4 7.6 3.6 2 6.3 8.9 6.3 3.0 3 3.5 4.9 3.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Salt Lake down, St. Louis City across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.57 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Salt Lake at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). St. Louis City away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Real Salt Lake, 1.42 for St. Louis City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.57

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~STL 1–1 REA · STL 2–2 REA · REA 3–2 STL · REA 3–1 STL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

REAL SALT LAKE

LLWLDW0–3 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

ST. LOUIS CITY

WWWWDL4–2 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 6–2 · 0–0 · 2–3

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22