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Model 1.2

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Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids

Portland Timbers
0–0Full time
Colorado Rapids

Major League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Providence Park

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 06:00
Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids PORTLAND TIMBERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Portland Timbers win49%
The market said50%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.895
The market’s Brier score0.876

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Portland Timbers win at 49%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Portland Timbers was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids
  4. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Rob Holding · Colorado Rapids
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids
  7. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Kristoffer Velde · Portland Timbers
  8. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Morgan Whittaker · Colorado Rapids
  9. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Portland Timbers win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
  10. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Colorado Rapids · On: Noah Cobb · Off: Rob Holding
  11. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Kosi Thompson · Colorado Rapids
  12. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Matthew Elliott Wells · Colorado Rapids
  13. 51′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–39–24
  14. 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 40–35–25
  15. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Portland Timbers win 36%)
  16. 58′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–22
  17. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Colorado Rapids · On: Paxten Aaronson · Off: Donavan Phillip
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Colorado Rapids · On: Hamzat Ojediran · Off: Morgan Whittaker
  19. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Portland Timbers win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
  20. 67′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
  21. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Portland Timbers · On: Ariel Lassiter · Off: Omir Fernandez
  22. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Portland Timbers · On: Jose Caicedo · Off: Diego Chará
  23. 74′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–61–16
  24. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Portland Timbers · On: Julio Joao Ortiz Landazuri · Off: Eric Izoita
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Portland Timbers · On: Cole Bassett · Off: Vincent Janssen
  26. 78′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
  27. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Portland Timbers win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  28. 82′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–10
  29. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Portland Timbers · On: Alexander Aravena · Off: David Da Costa
  30. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Colorado Rapids · On: Ibrahim Sadiq · Off: Georgi Minoungou
  31. 86′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
  32. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Portland Timbers win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
  33. 90′Full time, 0–0. We called Portland Timbers at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  34. 92′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  35. FTFULL TIME Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids
  36. FTPortland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids · Portland Timbers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Portland Timbers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portland Timbers 49%, draw 24%, Colorado Rapids 27%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Portland Timbers v Colorado RapidsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Portland Timbers win49%
Draw24%
Colorado Rapids win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueProvidence Park

RefereeElijio Arreguin

Line-ups

Portland Timbers

4-3-3

Colorado Rapids

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portland Timbers

Colorado Rapids

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Western Conference

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Colorado Rapids29038
11Portland Timbers29−533

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Portland Timbers

4-3-3

41 J. Pantemis

12 R. Hernández

2 J. Waterman

4 K. Miller

27 J. Fory

73 Eric Izoita

21 D. Chará

10 David Pereira da Costa

22 O. Fernandez

14 V. Janssen

99 K. Velde

Coach · Martí Cifuentes

Substitutes

28 · A. Aravena

17 · C. Bassett

30 · J. Caicedo

7 · A. Lassiter

15 · E. Miller

25 · T. Muse

80 · J. Ortiz

23 · Ian Smith

Colorado Rapids

4-2-3-1

41 N. Defreitas

33 K. Thompson

6 R. Holding

5 Loïc Williams

29 M. Navarro

12 J. Atencio

13 W. Frederick II

32 D. Phillip

7 M. Whittaker

93 G. Minoungou

77 D. Yapi

Coach · Matt Wells

Substitutes

10 · P. Aaronson

31 · A. Beaudry

24 · N. Cobb

61 · B. Dowd

16 · A. Harris

8 · H. Ojediran

2 · K. Rosenberry

11 · I. Sadiq

99 · J. Travis

Our number · portland timbers winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off
49% The market50%
Us49%
Market50%

We make Portland Timbers a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids1.85 – 1.32
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 SeptW0 D2 L4 · W1 D4 L1
Table places · points 33 v 3811 v 9
The market · Portland Timbers win50% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 03:17
Our probability · Portland Timbers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. The market has gone from 43% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Portland Timbers win49%50%−1
Draw24%25%−1
Colorado Rapids win27%25%+2
Over 2.5 goals61%59%+2
Both teams to score62%61%+1
Over 1.5 goals83%81%+2
Over 3.5 goals39%38%+1
Portland Timbers or draw73%75%−2
Portland Timbers clean sheet27%––
Colorado Rapids clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 4.9 5.1 3.7 1 7.3 10.8 6.7 3.0 2 7.1 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.4 5.7 3.8 4 2.1 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Portland Timbers down, Colorado Rapids across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsCOL 2–0 POR · POR 2–1 COL · COL 0–3 POR · COL 2–1 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept

PORTLAND TIMBERS

DLLLDL2–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 0–2

COLORADO RAPIDS

DWDLDD1–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Western Conference
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vancouver Whitecaps29+3152
2St. Louis City30+1551
3FC Dallas29+850
4San Jose Earthquakes29+1047
5Houston Dynamo29+246
6Los Angeles FC30+1545
7Seattle Sounders29+241
8Los Angeles Galaxy30−939
9Colorado Rapids29038
10Minnesota United FC30−834
11Portland Timbers29−533
12Real Salt Lake29−533
13San Diego29−333
14Austin29−1731
15Sporting Kansas City29−3722

The competition's standings before kick-off.