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Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids
Portland Timbers
Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Providence Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Portland Timbers win at 49%.
- 2′Much as we predicted: Portland Timbers was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–24–27
- 2′KICK-OFF Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids
- 18′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Rob Holding · Colorado Rapids
- 45′HALF-TIME Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids
- 45′SECOND HALF Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Kristoffer Velde · Portland Timbers
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Morgan Whittaker · Colorado Rapids
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Portland Timbers win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
- 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Colorado Rapids · On: Noah Cobb · Off: Rob Holding
- 48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Kosi Thompson · Colorado Rapids
- 50′🟨 YELLOW · 45+5' Matthew Elliott Wells · Colorado Rapids
- 51′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–39–24
- 55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 40–35–25
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Portland Timbers win 36%)
- 58′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–22
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Colorado Rapids · On: Paxten Aaronson · Off: Donavan Phillip
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Colorado Rapids · On: Hamzat Ojediran · Off: Morgan Whittaker
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Portland Timbers win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
- 67′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–19
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Portland Timbers · On: Ariel Lassiter · Off: Omir Fernandez
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Portland Timbers · On: Jose Caicedo · Off: Diego Chará
- 74′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–61–16
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Portland Timbers · On: Julio Joao Ortiz Landazuri · Off: Eric Izoita
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Portland Timbers · On: Cole Bassett · Off: Vincent Janssen
- 78′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Portland Timbers win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
- 82′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–10
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Portland Timbers · On: Alexander Aravena · Off: David Da Costa
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Colorado Rapids · On: Ibrahim Sadiq · Off: Georgi Minoungou
- 86′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Portland Timbers win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
- 90′Full time, 0–0. We called Portland Timbers at 49% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
- 92′We said Portland Timbers at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME Portland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids
- FTPortland Timbers 0–0 Colorado Rapids · Portland Timbers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Portland Timbers are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Portland Timbers 49%, draw 24%, Colorado Rapids 27%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Portland Timbers win49%
Colorado Rapids win27%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30
RoundMatchday 30
VenueProvidence Park
RefereeElijio Arreguin
Match timeline
All events
Portland TimbersMIN
Colorado RapidsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Portland Timbers
4-3-3
Colorado Rapids
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Portland Timbers
Colorado Rapids
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Portland Timbers
4-3-3
41 J. Pantemis
12 R. Hernández
2 J. Waterman
4 K. Miller
27 J. Fory
73 Eric Izoita
21 D. Chará
10 David Pereira da Costa
22 O. Fernandez
14 V. Janssen
99 K. Velde
Coach · Martí Cifuentes
Substitutes
28 · A. Aravena
17 · C. Bassett
30 · J. Caicedo
7 · A. Lassiter
15 · E. Miller
25 · T. Muse
80 · J. Ortiz
23 · Ian Smith
Colorado Rapids
4-2-3-1
41 N. Defreitas
33 K. Thompson
6 R. Holding
5 Loïc Williams
29 M. Navarro
12 J. Atencio
13 W. Frederick II
32 D. Phillip
7 M. Whittaker
93 G. Minoungou
77 D. Yapi
Coach · Matt Wells
Substitutes
10 · P. Aaronson
31 · A. Beaudry
24 · N. Cobb
61 · B. Dowd
16 · A. Harris
8 · H. Ojediran
2 · K. Rosenberry
11 · I. Sadiq
99 · J. Travis
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Portland Timbers
4-3-3
41 J. Pantemis
12 R. Hernández
2 J. Waterman
4 K. Miller
27 J. Fory
73 Eric Izoita
21 D. Chará
10 David Pereira da Costa
22 O. Fernandez
14 V. Janssen
99 K. Velde
Coach · Martí Cifuentes
Substitutes
28 · A. Aravena
17 · C. Bassett
30 · J. Caicedo
7 · A. Lassiter
15 · E. Miller
25 · T. Muse
80 · J. Ortiz
23 · Ian Smith
Colorado Rapids
4-2-3-1
41 N. Defreitas
33 K. Thompson
6 R. Holding
5 Loïc Williams
29 M. Navarro
12 J. Atencio
13 W. Frederick II
32 D. Phillip
7 M. Whittaker
93 G. Minoungou
77 D. Yapi
Coach · Matt Wells
Substitutes
10 · P. Aaronson
31 · A. Beaudry
24 · N. Cobb
61 · B. Dowd
16 · A. Harris
8 · H. Ojediran
2 · K. Rosenberry
11 · I. Sadiq
99 · J. Travis
We make Portland Timbers a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 50%, 49% now. The market has gone from 43% to 50% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers win | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | −1 |
| Colorado Rapids win | 27% | 25% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 38% | +1 |
| Portland Timbers or draw | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Portland Timbers clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Colorado Rapids clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept
PORTLAND TIMBERS
COLORADO RAPIDS
The table
2026 · Western Conference| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | +31 | 52 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 30 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 29 | +8 | 50 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | +10 | 47 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 29 | +2 | 46 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 30 | +15 | 45 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 29 | +2 | 41 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | −9 | 39 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 30 | −8 | 34 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 29 | −5 | 33 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | −5 | 33 |
| 13 | San Diego | 29 | −3 | 33 |
| 14 | Austin | 29 | −17 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | −37 | 22 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles Galaxy
Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake
San Diego
Austin
Sporting Kansas City