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Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake

Philadelphia Union

2–1Full time

Real Salt Lake

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Talen Energy Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt Lake PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Philadelphia Union win~~59%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.252

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.130

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Philadelphia Union win at 59%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Philadelphia Union 59% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–20
1′KICK-OFF Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake
2′Little has changed for our model: Philadelphia Union 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Danley Jean Jacques · Philadelphia Union
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' DeAndre Yedlin · Real Salt Lake
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Francis Westfield · Philadelphia Union
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Philadelphia Union 1–0 Real Salt Lake
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Philadelphia Union 1–0 Real Salt Lake · Bruno Damiani
45′SECOND HALF Philadelphia Union 1–0 Real Salt Lake
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Salt Lake · On: Juan Sanabria · Off: Sam Junqua Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Salt Lake · On: Luc De Fougerolles · Off: DeAndre Yedlin Corrected
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Dominik Marczuk · Real Salt Lake
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Philadelphia Union · On: Quinn Sullivan · Off: Indiana Vassilev Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Salt Lake · On: Saba Lobjanidze · Off: Aiden Hezarkhani Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Salt Lake · On: Chadwick Zachary Booth · Off: Dominik Marczuk Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Philadelphia Union · On: Jesus Bueno · Off: Jovan Lukic Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Salt Lake · On: Ariath Piol · Off: Sergi Solans Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Jesus Bueno · Philadelphia Union
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Philadelphia Union 2–0 Real Salt Lake · Bruno Damiani
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Philadelphia Union 2–0 Real Salt Lake · Milan Iloski
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Bruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union
92′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Philadelphia Union · On: Benjamin Bender · Off: Cavan Sullivan Corrected
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Philadelphia Union · On: Malik Jakupovic · Off: Milan Iloski Corrected
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Philadelphia Union · On: Alejandro Bedoya · Off: Danley Jean Jacques Corrected
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt Lake · Milan Iloski
97′⚽ GOAL · 96' Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt Lake · Saba Lobjanidze
FTFULL TIME Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt Lake
FTPhiladelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt Lake · Philadelphia Union win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Philadelphia Union win59%

Draw22%

Real Salt Lake win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Talen Energy Stadium

Referee · Elijio Arreguin

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union

4-4-2

18 A. Blake

39 F. Westfield

44 N. Pierre

26 N. Harriel

27 K. Wagner

6 C. Sullivan

21 D. Jean Jacques

4 J. Lukic

19 I. Vassilev

10 M. Iloski

9 B. Damiani

Coach · Ryan Richter

Substitutes

76 · A. Rick

2 · G. Martinez

11 · A. Bedoya

33 · Q. Sullivan

8 · J. Bueno

14 · J. Rafanello

16 · B. Bender

23 · E. Alladoh

51 · M. Jakupovic

Real Salt Lake

3-4-2-1

1 Rafael Cabral

2 D. Yedlin

26 P. Quinton

3 K. Henry

11 D. Marczuk

6 S. Spierings

92 N. Caliskan

29 S. Junqua

39 A. Hezarkhani

9 M. Guilavogui

22 S. Solans

Coach · Pablo Mastroeni

Substitutes

31 · M. Stajduhar

98 · A. Katranis

44 · L. De Fougerolles

25 · C. Guske

8 · J. Sanabria

34 · L. Moisa

12 · S. Lobjanidze

19 · A. Piol

23 · Z. Booth

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union

4-4-2

18 A. Blake

39 F. Westfield

44 N. Pierre

26 N. Harriel

27 K. Wagner

6 C. Sullivan

21 D. Jean Jacques

4 J. Lukic

19 I. Vassilev

10 M. Iloski

9 B. Damiani

Coach · Ryan Richter

Substitutes

76 · A. Rick

2 · G. Martinez

11 · A. Bedoya

33 · Q. Sullivan

8 · J. Bueno

14 · J. Rafanello

16 · B. Bender

23 · E. Alladoh

51 · M. Jakupovic

Real Salt Lake

3-4-2-1

1 Rafael Cabral

2 D. Yedlin

26 P. Quinton

3 K. Henry

11 D. Marczuk

6 S. Spierings

92 N. Caliskan

29 S. Junqua

39 A. Hezarkhani

9 M. Guilavogui

22 S. Solans

Coach · Pablo Mastroeni

Substitutes

31 · M. Stajduhar

98 · A. Katranis

44 · L. De Fougerolles

25 · C. Guske

8 · J. Sanabria

34 · L. Moisa

12 · S. Lobjanidze

19 · A. Piol

23 · Z. Booth

Our number · philadelphia union winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

59% The market71%

Us59%

~~Market~~71%

We make Philadelphia Union a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · philadelphia union win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 71% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Philadelphia Union win	59%	71%	−12
Draw	22%	17%	+5
Real Salt Lake win	19%	12%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	69%	−7
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	85%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	49%	−9
Philadelphia Union or draw	81%	88%	−7
Philadelphia Union clean sheet	33%	–	–
Real Salt Lake clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.7 4.1 2.6 1 8.1 9.9 5.3 2 8.8 9.7 5.4 2.0 3 6.1 6.7 3.8 4 3.2 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Philadelphia Union down, Real Salt Lake across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Philadelphia Union at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Real Salt Lake away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Philadelphia Union, 1.11 for Real Salt Lake. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PHI 1–2 REA

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

PHILADELPHIA UNION

WWWWWW3–1 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 5–0 · 4–3 · 4–2

REAL SALT LAKE

DLLLLW2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21