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Model 1.2

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Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution

Philadelphia Union
1–2Full time
New England Revolution

Major League Soccer · SUN 25 OCT · Talen Energy Stadium

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01
Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Philadelphia Union win59%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.050
The market’s Brier score1.148

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Philadelphia Union win at 59%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Philadelphia Union 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–22–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution
  4. 25′Philadelphia Union have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 54–26–20
  5. 32′8 shots for Philadelphia Union, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 52–28–20
  6. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Philadelphia Union win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
  7. 44′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–33–19
  8. 45′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–27–53
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Philadelphia Union 0–1 New England Revolution
  10. 45′SECOND HALF Philadelphia Union 0–1 New England Revolution
  11. 47′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–54
  12. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Philadelphia Union 0–1 New England Revolution
  13. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Philadelphia Union win: 59% at kick-off, 19% now
  14. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' New England Revolution win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Philadelphia Union win 46%)
  15. 49′Dor Turgeman scores for New England Revolution on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–28–55
  16. 56′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–58
  17. 58′12 shots for Philadelphia Union, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 13–27–60
  18. 65′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
  19. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Philadelphia Union win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
  20. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Bruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union
  21. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 63' viktor lukic · Philadelphia Union
  22. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Jackson Yueill · New England Revolution
  23. 75′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
  24. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Philadelphia Union · On: Agustin Anello · Off: Indiana Vassilev
  25. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' New England Revolution · On: Brooklyn Raines · Off: Dániel Gazdag
  26. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Jovan Lukic · Philadelphia Union
  27. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Philadelphia Union · On: Malik Jakupovic · Off: Nathan Harriel
  28. 88′16 shots for Philadelphia Union, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–91
  29. 90′New England Revolution score on 86′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  30. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Philadelphia Union 0–2 New England Revolution
  31. 93′90′: Carles Gil on the scoresheet for New England Revolution, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  32. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' New England Revolution · On: Wilson Harris · Off: Dor Turgeman
  33. 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' New England Revolution · On: Mamadou Fofana · Off: Luca Daniel·Langoni
  34. 99′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' New England Revolution · On: Diego Fagúndez · Off: Carles Gil
  35. 99′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' New England Revolution · On: Judah Siqueira · Off: Jackson Yueill
  36. 102′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  37. 102′⚽ GOAL · 90+12' Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution
  38. 105′Philadelphia Union pull one back on 90′ through Neil Pierre. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  39. FTFULL TIME Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution
  40. FTPhiladelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution · Philadelphia Union win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Philadelphia Union are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Philadelphia Union 59%, draw 21%, New England Revolution 19%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Philadelphia Union v New England RevolutionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Philadelphia Union win59%
Draw21%
New England Revolution win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueTalen Energy Stadium

RefereeMalik Badawi

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union

4-4-2

New England Revolution

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Philadelphia Union

New England Revolution

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Eastern Conference

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3New England Revolution30+852
6Philadelphia Union30+1346

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union

4-4-2

18 A. Blake

39 F. Westfield

44 Neil Pierre

26 N. Harriel

27 K. Wagner

33 Q. Sullivan

21 D. Jean-Jacques

4 J. Lukić

19 I. Vassilev

10 M. Iloski

9 B. Damiani

Coach · Ryan Richter

Substitutes

23 · E. Alladoh

28 · A. Anello

11 · A. Bedoya

16 · B. Bender

51 · M. Jakupovic

14 · J. Rafanello

76 · A. Rick

5 · J. Sery Larsen

47 · K. LeBlanc

New England Revolution

4-3-3

30 M. Turner

12 I. Feingold

22 E. Kohler

66 J. Wynder

25 P. Miller

10 Carles Gil

8 M. Polster

14 J. Yueill

41 L. Langoni

99 D. Turgeman

16 D. Gazdag

Coach · M. Mićović

Substitutes

77 · D. Fagundez

2 · M. Fofana

27 · W. Harris

33 · D. Parisian

65 · J. Siqueira

7 · G. Yow

15 · C. Baker

21 · B. Raines

4 · T. Beason

Our number · philadelphia union winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
59% The market64%
Us59%
Market64%

We make Philadelphia Union a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution2.13 – 1.14
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 SeptW5 D1 L0 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 46 v 526 v 3
The market · Philadelphia Union win64% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 19 OCT 01:3724 OCT 23:47
Our probability · Philadelphia Union win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Philadelphia Union win59%64%−5
Draw21%19%+2
New England Revolution win19%16%+3
Over 2.5 goals63%67%−4
Both teams to score60%62%−2
Over 1.5 goals84%85%−1
Over 3.5 goals41%47%−6
Philadelphia Union or draw81%84%−3
Philadelphia Union clean sheet32%––
New England Revolution clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%
0123450 4.5 3.9 2.5 1 7.6 9.7 5.2 2.0 2 8.6 9.7 5.5 2.1 3 6.1 6.8 3.9 4 3.3 3.7 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Philadelphia Union down, New England Revolution across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsNEW 2–1 PHI · PHI 1–0 NEW · NEW 0–2 PHI · PHI 5–1 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

PHILADELPHIA UNION

WWWWWD5–0 · 4–3 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

WWLLWW2–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Nashville SC30+4167
2Inter Miami30+2255
3New England Revolution30+852
4Chicago Fire30+848
5Charlotte30+847
6Philadelphia Union30+1346
7Orlando City SC30−1241
8FC Cincinnati30−939
9New York Red Bulls30−1736
10Toronto FC30−936
11Columbus Crew30−135
12New York City FC30+234
13DC United30−1533
14Atlanta United FC30−1430
15CF Montreal30−2425

The competition's standings before kick-off.