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Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union
New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer · SUN 25 OCT · Talen Energy Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Philadelphia Union win at 59%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Philadelphia Union 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–22–19
- 1′KICK-OFF Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution
- 25′Philadelphia Union have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 54–26–20
- 32′8 shots for Philadelphia Union, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 52–28–20
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Philadelphia Union win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
- 44′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 47–33–19
- 45′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–27–53
- 45′HALF-TIME Philadelphia Union 0–1 New England Revolution
- 45′SECOND HALF Philadelphia Union 0–1 New England Revolution
- 47′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–54
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Philadelphia Union 0–1 New England Revolution
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Philadelphia Union win: 59% at kick-off, 19% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' New England Revolution win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Philadelphia Union win 46%)
- 49′Dor Turgeman scores for New England Revolution on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–28–55
- 56′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–58
- 58′12 shots for Philadelphia Union, 7 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 13–27–60
- 65′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Philadelphia Union win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Bruno Damiani · Philadelphia Union
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 63' viktor lukic · Philadelphia Union
- 69′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Jackson Yueill · New England Revolution
- 75′We said Philadelphia Union at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Philadelphia Union · On: Agustin Anello · Off: Indiana Vassilev
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' New England Revolution · On: Brooklyn Raines · Off: Dániel Gazdag
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Jovan Lukic · Philadelphia Union
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Philadelphia Union · On: Malik Jakupovic · Off: Nathan Harriel
- 88′16 shots for Philadelphia Union, 9 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 0–8–91
- 90′New England Revolution score on 86′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Philadelphia Union 0–2 New England Revolution
- 93′90′: Carles Gil on the scoresheet for New England Revolution, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' New England Revolution · On: Wilson Harris · Off: Dor Turgeman
- 94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' New England Revolution · On: Mamadou Fofana · Off: Luca Daniel·Langoni
- 99′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' New England Revolution · On: Diego Fagúndez · Off: Carles Gil
- 99′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' New England Revolution · On: Judah Siqueira · Off: Jackson Yueill
- 102′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 0–2–98
- 102′⚽ GOAL · 90+12' Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution
- 105′Philadelphia Union pull one back on 90′ through Neil Pierre. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
- FTFULL TIME Philadelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution
- FTPhiladelphia Union 1–2 New England Revolution · Philadelphia Union win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Philadelphia Union are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Philadelphia Union 59%, draw 21%, New England Revolution 19%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Philadelphia Union win59%
New England Revolution win19%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30
RoundMatchday 31
VenueTalen Energy Stadium
RefereeMalik Badawi
Match timeline
All events
Philadelphia UnionMIN
New England RevolutionEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2
New England Revolution
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
Last match: 17 Oct · Major League Soccer
Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2
18 A. Blake
39 F. Westfield
44 Neil Pierre
26 N. Harriel
27 K. Wagner
33 Q. Sullivan
21 D. Jean-Jacques
4 J. Lukić
19 I. Vassilev
10 M. Iloski
9 B. Damiani
Coach · Ryan Richter
Substitutes
23 · E. Alladoh
28 · A. Anello
11 · A. Bedoya
16 · B. Bender
51 · M. Jakupovic
14 · J. Rafanello
76 · A. Rick
5 · J. Sery Larsen
47 · K. LeBlanc
New England Revolution
4-3-3
30 M. Turner
12 I. Feingold
22 E. Kohler
66 J. Wynder
25 P. Miller
10 Carles Gil
8 M. Polster
14 J. Yueill
41 L. Langoni
99 D. Turgeman
16 D. Gazdag
Coach · M. Mićović
Substitutes
77 · D. Fagundez
2 · M. Fofana
27 · W. Harris
33 · D. Parisian
65 · J. Siqueira
7 · G. Yow
15 · C. Baker
21 · B. Raines
4 · T. Beason
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2
18 A. Blake
39 F. Westfield
44 Neil Pierre
26 N. Harriel
27 K. Wagner
33 Q. Sullivan
21 D. Jean-Jacques
4 J. Lukić
19 I. Vassilev
10 M. Iloski
9 B. Damiani
Coach · Ryan Richter
Substitutes
23 · E. Alladoh
28 · A. Anello
11 · A. Bedoya
16 · B. Bender
51 · M. Jakupovic
14 · J. Rafanello
76 · A. Rick
5 · J. Sery Larsen
47 · K. LeBlanc
New England Revolution
4-3-3
30 M. Turner
12 I. Feingold
22 E. Kohler
66 J. Wynder
25 P. Miller
10 Carles Gil
8 M. Polster
14 J. Yueill
41 L. Langoni
99 D. Turgeman
16 D. Gazdag
Coach · M. Mićović
Substitutes
77 · D. Fagundez
2 · M. Fofana
27 · W. Harris
33 · D. Parisian
65 · J. Siqueira
7 · G. Yow
15 · C. Baker
21 · B. Raines
4 · T. Beason
We make Philadelphia Union a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union win | 59% | 64% | −5 |
| Draw | 21% | 19% | +2 |
| New England Revolution win | 19% | 16% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 67% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | 85% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 47% | −6 |
| Philadelphia Union or draw | 81% | 84% | −3 |
| Philadelphia Union clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
| New England Revolution clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept
PHILADELPHIA UNION
NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION
The table
2026 · Eastern Conference| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 30 | +41 | 67 |
| 2 | Inter Miami | 30 | +22 | 55 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 30 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 30 | +8 | 48 |
| 5 | Charlotte | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 30 | +13 | 46 |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 30 | −12 | 41 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 30 | −9 | 39 |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | −17 | 36 |
| 10 | Toronto FC | 30 | −9 | 36 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 30 | −1 | 35 |
| 12 | New York City FC | 30 | +2 | 34 |
| 13 | DC United | 30 | −15 | 33 |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 30 | −14 | 30 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 30 | −24 | 25 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
Charlotte
Orlando City SC
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
New York City FC
DC United
Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal