Philadelphia Union v Charlotte prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Philadelphia Union 2–2 Charlotte PHILADELPHIA UNION WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Philadelphia Union win~~55%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.951

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.131

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Philadelphia Union win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Philadelphia Union 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–22
1′KICK-OFF Philadelphia Union v Charlotte
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Allan Saint-Maximin · Charlotte
23′We said Philadelphia Union at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Philadelphia Union 1–0 Charlotte
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Philadelphia Union win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
24′24′: Milan Iloski on the scoresheet for Philadelphia Union, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Morrison Agyemang · Charlotte
45′HALF-TIME Philadelphia Union 1–0 Charlotte
45′SECOND HALF Philadelphia Union 1–0 Charlotte
47′We said Philadelphia Union at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–36–21
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' David Schnegg · Charlotte
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Philadelphia Union 1–1 Charlotte
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Philadelphia Union win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Philadelphia Union win: 55% at kick-off, 43% now
49′Charlotte level it on 48′ through Rodolfo Aloko. 1–1. 1–1 · 42–37–21
55′We said Philadelphia Union at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–41–20
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Philadelphia Union · On: Quinn Sullivan · Off: Indiana Vassilev
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Philadelphia Union win 38%)
61′We said Philadelphia Union at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–26–64
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Philadelphia Union 1–2 Charlotte
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Philadelphia Union win: 55% at kick-off, 10% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Charlotte win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 26%)
63′We said Philadelphia Union at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
63′Idan Toklomati Jorno scores for Charlotte on 62′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–25–66
64′14 shots for Philadelphia Union, 9 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 9–25–66
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Philadelphia Union win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
FTFULL TIME Philadelphia Union 2–2 Charlotte
FTPhiladelphia Union 2–2 Charlotte · Philadelphia Union win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Philadelphia Union are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Philadelphia Union 55%, draw 23%, Charlotte 22%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Philadelphia Union v CharlotteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Philadelphia Union win55%

Draw23%

Charlotte win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueTalen Energy Stadium

RefereeJon Freemon

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union

4-4-2

Charlotte

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Philadelphia Union

Charlotte

2Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Charlotte	29	+8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	+13	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Philadelphia Union

4-4-2

18 A. Blake

39 F. Westfield

44 Neil Pierre

26 N. Harriel

27 K. Wagner

6 Cavan Sullivan

21 D. Jean-Jacques

4 J. Lukić

19 I. Vassilev

9 B. Damiani

10 M. Iloski

Coach · Ryan Richter

Substitutes

14 · J. Rafanello

51 · M. Jakupovic

16 · B. Bender

11 · A. Bedoya

5 · J. Sery Larsen

76 · A. Rick

33 · Q. Sullivan

28 · A. Anello

23 · E. Alladoh

Charlotte

4-3-3

1 K. Kahlina

14 N. Byrne

44 M. Agyemang

22 H. Kessler

23 D. Schnegg

28 D. Diani

8 A. Westwood

16 Pep Biel

37 R. Aloko

9 I. Toklomati Giorno

10 A. Saint-Maximin

Coach · D. Smith

Substitutes

13 · B. Bronico

35 · Will Cleary

17 · L. de la Torre

21 · T. Miller

4 · A. Privett

3 · T. Ream

25 · Tyger Smalls

15 · H. Toffolo

11 · L. Abada

Our number · philadelphia union winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:01 · locked at kick-off

55% The market66%

Us55%

~~Market~~66%

We make Philadelphia Union a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Philadelphia Union v Charlotte~~1.98 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 45 v 46~~6 v 5

~~The market · Philadelphia Union win~~66% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Philadelphia Union win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Philadelphia Union win	55%	66%	−11
Draw	23%	18%	+5
Charlotte win	22%	16%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	61%	71%	−10
Both teams to score	60%	65%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	87%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	39%	51%	−12
Philadelphia Union or draw	78%	84%	−6
Philadelphia Union clean sheet	31%	–	–
Charlotte clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.9 4.5 3.0 1 7.9 10.4 5.8 2.3 2 8.3 9.7 5.7 2.2 3 5.5 6.4 3.7 4 2.7 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Philadelphia Union down, Charlotte across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,979 Major League Soccer matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 435 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Philadelphia Union at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Charlotte away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Philadelphia Union, 1.18 for Charlotte. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHA 2–1 PHI · CHA 2–0 PHI · PHI 2–1 CHA · PHI 1–0 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept

PHILADELPHIA UNION

WWWWWW5–0 · 5–0 · 4–3 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–1

CHARLOTTE

WDWLWL2–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–3

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	29	+41	66
2	Inter Miami	29	+20	52
3	New England Revolution	29	+7	49
4	Chicago Fire	29	+9	48
5	Charlotte	29	+8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	+13	45
7	Orlando City SC	29	−15	38
8	New York Red Bulls	29	−15	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	−8	36
10	New York City FC	29	+2	33
11	Toronto FC	29	−11	33
12	DC United	28	−11	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	−3	32
14	Atlanta United FC	29	−12	30
15	CF Montreal	29	−24	24