Orlando City SC v New York City FC prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Orlando City SCDrawNew York City FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Orlando City SC 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Orlando City SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orlando City SC 45%, draw 24%, New York City FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Orlando City SC v New York City FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Orlando City SC win45%

Draw24%

New York City FC win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueExploria Stadium

RefereeElijio Arreguin

Line-ups

Orlando City SC

4-2-3-1

New York City FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orlando City SC

New York City FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Orlando City SC

4-2-3-1

71 M. Crépeau

77 I. Angulo

4 D. Brekalo

57 Iago

27 Vinícius Nogueira

8 B. Ojeda

16 W. Cartagena

20 E. Atuesta

7 A. Griezmann

10 M. Ojeda

22 Justin Ellis

Coach · M. Perelman

Substitutes

9 · D. Dike

35 · Joran Gerbet

21 · N. Miller

12 · Javier Otero

87 · Marco Pasalic

44 · Bernardo Rhein Goncalves

23 · Harvey Sarajian

19 · Z. Taifi

3 · Adrián Marín

New York City FC

4-2-3-1

49 M. Freese

24 T. Gray

13 Thiago Martins

6 J. Sands

22 K. O'Toole

21 A. O'Neill

8 A. Perea

26 A. Ojeda

7 N. Fernández Mercau

17 H. Wolf

16 A. Martínez

Coach · P. Jansen

Substitutes

20 · Luighi Hanri

3 · M. Miazga

34 · Raul Gustavo

30 · T. Romero

32 · J. Shore

11 · Talles Magno

9 · B. Traoré

88 · M. Jones

2 · Nico Cavallo

Our number · orlando city sc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make Orlando City SC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orlando City SC v New York City FC~~1.77 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 41 v 34~~7 v 12

~~The market · Orlando City SC win~~45% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Orlando City SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orlando City SC win	45%	45%	0
Draw	24%	24%	0
New York City FC win	31%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Both teams to score	63%	68%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	85%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Orlando City SC or draw	69%	69%	0
Orlando City SC clean sheet	24%	–	–
New York City FC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 4.8 5.3 4.2 2.0 1 6.6 10.9 7.3 3.5 2 6.3 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 3.7 5.3 3.8 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orlando City SC down, New York City FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orlando City SC at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). New York City FC away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Orlando City SC, 1.44 for New York City FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEW 5–0 ORL · ORL 1–2 NEW · NEW 2–1 ORL · ORL 1–1 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

ORLANDO CITY SC

WLLWDW3–0 · 2–4 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 4–1

NEW YORK CITY FC

WLDLLD2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25