Orlando City SC v DC United prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:01

Orlando City SC 4–1 DC United ORLANDO CITY SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orlando City SC win~~60%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.244

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.277

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orlando City SC win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Orlando City SC was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–20–20
1′KICK-OFF Orlando City SC v DC United
14′We published Orlando City SC at 60%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–13–8
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Orlando City SC 1–0 DC United
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Orlando City SC win: 60% at kick-off, 79% now
16′A goal for Orlando City SC on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–13–8
25′We published Orlando City SC at 60%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Orlando City SC 2–0 DC United
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Orlando City SC win: 60% at kick-off, 93% now
26′22′: Martin Ojeda on the scoresheet for Orlando City SC, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Luis Otávio Costa de Aquino · Orlando City SC
42′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′We published Orlando City SC at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′DC United pull one back on 45′ through Sean Nealis. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–5
45′9 shots for DC United, 4 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 80–15–5
45′HALF-TIME Orlando City SC 2–1 DC United
45′SECOND HALF Orlando City SC 2–1 DC United
46′We published Orlando City SC at 60%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–15–5
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Orlando City SC 2–1 DC United
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Orlando City SC win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' DC United · On: Jackson Hopkins · Off: Jared Stroud
49′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 95–4–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Orlando City SC 3–1 DC United
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Orlando City SC win: 60% at kick-off, 95% now
52′Antoine Griezmann scores for Orlando City SC on 50′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Orlando City SC · On: Joran Gerbet · Off: Wilder Cartagena
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' DC United · On: Oscar Avilez · Off: Brandon Servania
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Orlando City SC · On: Adrián Marín · Off: Eduard Atuesta
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Orlando City SC · On: Braian Ojeda · Off: Luis Otávio Costa de Aquino
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Orlando City SC · On: Justin Ellis · Off: Daryl Dike
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Kimito Nono · DC United
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' DC United · On: Matti Peltola · Off: Silvan Hefti
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' DC United · On: Nathan Ordaz · Off: João Gabriel Martins Peglow
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Orlando City SC win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
84′We published Orlando City SC at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Jackson Hopkins · DC United
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Orlando City SC · On: Marco Pašalić · Off: Martin Ojeda
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tai Baribo · DC United
90′Full time, 4–1. We called Orlando City SC at 60% — that one lands. 4–1 · 100–0–0
94′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Orlando City SC 4–1 DC United
FTFULL TIME Orlando City SC 4–1 DC United
FTOrlando City SC 4–1 DC United · Orlando City SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Orlando City SC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orlando City SC 60%, draw 20%, DC United 20%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Orlando City SC v DC UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Orlando City SC win60%

Draw20%

DC United win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueExploria Stadium

RefereePierre Luce Lauziere

Line-ups

Orlando City SC

4-2-3-1

DC United

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orlando City SC

DC United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Orlando City SC	29	−15	38
12	DC United	28	−11	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Orlando City SC

4-2-3-1

71 M. Crépeau

19 Z. Taifi

4 D. Brekalo

57 Iago

77 I. Angulo

5 Luis Otávio

16 W. Cartagena

20 E. Atuesta

7 A. Griezmann

10 M. Ojeda

9 D. Dike

Coach · M. Perelman

Substitutes

22 · Justin Ellis

35 · Joran Gerbet

21 · N. Miller

8 · B. Ojeda

12 · Javier Otero

87 · Marco Pasalic

23 · Harvey Sarajian

11 · Tiago

3 · Adrián Marín

DC United

4-4-2

1 S. Johnson

5 S. Hefti

13 S. Nealis

15 K. Rowles

6 K. Kurokawa

8 J. Stroud

2 K. Nono

21 A. Dozzell

7 Peglow

9 T. Baribo

23 B. Servania

Coach · R. Weiler

Substitutes

12 · C. Antley

32 · O. Avilez

26 · A. Bono

40 · K. Castillo

25 · J. Hopkins

27 · Nikola Markovic

22 · N. Ordaz

4 · M. Peltola

48 · Gavin Turner

Our number · orlando city sc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market57%

Us60%

~~Market~~57%

We make Orlando City SC a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orlando City SC v DC United~~2.30 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 38 v 33~~7 v 12

~~The market · Orlando City SC win~~57% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Orlando City SC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orlando City SC win	60%	57%	+3
Draw	20%	22%	−2
DC United win	20%	21%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Both teams to score	65%	69%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Orlando City SC or draw	80%	79%	+1
Orlando City SC clean sheet	28%	–	–
DC United clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.4 3.2 2.3 1 6.1 8.7 5.2 2.2 2 7.4 9.3 5.9 2.5 3 5.6 7.1 4.5 4 3.3 4.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orlando City SC down, DC United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,981 Major League Soccer matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 437 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.20 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orlando City SC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). DC United away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.30 goals for Orlando City SC, 1.27 for DC United. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.20

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DCU 3–2 ORL · DCU 1–1 ORL · ORL 4–1 DCU · ORL 5–0 DCU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept

ORLANDO CITY SC

WWLLWD3–2 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 3–3

DC UNITED

WDLDLW2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	29	+41	66
2	Inter Miami	29	+20	52
3	New England Revolution	29	+7	49
4	Chicago Fire	29	+9	48
5	Charlotte	29	+8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	+13	45
7	Orlando City SC	29	−15	38
8	New York Red Bulls	29	−15	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	−8	36
10	New York City FC	29	+2	33
11	Toronto FC	29	−11	33
12	DC United	28	−11	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	−3	32
14	Atlanta United FC	29	−12	30
15	CF Montreal	29	−24	24