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Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew

Orlando City SC

3–2Full time

Columbus Crew

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Exploria Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew ORLANDO CITY SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orlando City SC win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.467

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.445

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orlando City SC win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew
1′⚽ GOAL Orlando City SC 1–0 Columbus Crew
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Orlando City SC 1–0 Columbus Crew
2′Orlando City SC find the net on 1′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–17–15
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
3′Orlando City SC ahead on 1′ through Harvey Graham Sarajian. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–17–15
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Vinicius Nogueira · Orlando City SC
5′We said Orlando City SC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–17–15
7′Little has changed for our model: Orlando City SC 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 1–1 · 44–23–32
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Orlando City SC 1–1 Columbus Crew · Harvey Graham Sarajian
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Orlando City SC 1–1 Columbus Crew · Taha Habroune
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
10′Taha Habroune scores for Columbus Crew on 7′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 44–24–32
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 44% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Orlando City SC win: 44% at kick-off, 67% now
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Orlando City SC 2–1 Columbus Crew · Taha Habroune
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Orlando City SC 2–1 Columbus Crew · David Brekalo
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Taha Habroune · Columbus Crew
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Robin Jansson · Orlando City SC
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Brais Méndez · Columbus Crew
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' David Brekalo · Orlando City SC
45′SECOND HALF Orlando City SC 2–1 Columbus Crew
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Orlando City SC · On: Bernardo Rhein · Off: Harvey Graham Sarajian Corrected
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Orlando City SC 2–2 Columbus Crew · Antoine Griezmann
52′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Orlando City SC · On: Zakaria Taifi · Off: Vinicius Nogueira Corrected
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Orlando City SC 2–2 Columbus Crew · Brais Méndez
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Marco Pašalić · Orlando City SC
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Orlando City SC · On: Luis Otávio Costa de Aquino · Off: Eduard Atuesta Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Orlando City SC · On: Daryl Dike · Off: Marco Pašalić Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Columbus Crew · On: Gonzalo Tapia · Off: Josef Martínez Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Columbus Crew · On: André Gomes · Off: Dylan Chambost Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Columbus Crew · On: Brooks Lennon · Off: Anass Zaroury Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Columbus Crew · On: Sekou Tidiany Bangoura · Off: Taha Habroune Corrected
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew · Brais Méndez
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew · Iván Angulo
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Columbus Crew · On: Marcelo Andrés Herrera · Off: Mohamed Farsi Corrected
–We said Orlando City SC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–17–16
FTFULL TIME Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew
FTOrlando City SC 3–2 Columbus Crew · Orlando City SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Orlando City SC win44%

Draw23%

Columbus Crew win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Exploria Stadium

Referee · Rosendo Mendoza

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Orlando City SC

4-4-2

71 M. Crepeau

77 I. Angulo

4 D. Brekalo

6 R. Jansson

27 Vinicius Nogueira

87 M. Pasalic

20 E. Atuesta

16 W. Cartagena

23 H. Sarajian

10 M. Ojeda

7 A. Griezmann

Coach · Oscar Pareja

Substitutes

12 · J. Otero

57 · Iago Teodoro

19 · Z. Taifi

5 · Luis Otavio

35 · J. Gerbet

44 · B. Rhein

22 · J. Ellis

9 · D. Dike

11 · Tiago

Columbus Crew

3-5-2

28 P. Schulte

31 S. Moreira

25 S. Zawadzki

18 M. Amundsen

23 M. Farsi

7 D. Chambost

16 T. Habroune

8 S. Rodriguez

21 A. Zaroury

10 B. Mendez

77 J. Martinez

Coach · Laurent Courtois

Substitutes

1 · N. Hagen

3 · E. Bailly

4 · R. Camacho

2 · A. Herrera

20 · A. Gomes

11 · B. Lennon

17 · S. Bangoura

26 · L. Giaccone

33 · G. Tapia

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Orlando City SC

4-4-2

71 M. Crepeau

77 I. Angulo

4 D. Brekalo

6 R. Jansson

27 Vinicius Nogueira

87 M. Pasalic

20 E. Atuesta

16 W. Cartagena

23 H. Sarajian

10 M. Ojeda

7 A. Griezmann

Coach · Oscar Pareja

Substitutes

12 · J. Otero

57 · Iago Teodoro

19 · Z. Taifi

5 · Luis Otavio

35 · J. Gerbet

44 · B. Rhein

22 · J. Ellis

9 · D. Dike

11 · Tiago

Columbus Crew

3-5-2

28 P. Schulte

31 S. Moreira

25 S. Zawadzki

18 M. Amundsen

23 M. Farsi

7 D. Chambost

16 T. Habroune

8 S. Rodriguez

21 A. Zaroury

10 B. Mendez

77 J. Martinez

Coach · Laurent Courtois

Substitutes

1 · N. Hagen

3 · E. Bailly

4 · R. Camacho

2 · A. Herrera

20 · A. Gomes

11 · B. Lennon

17 · S. Bangoura

26 · L. Giaccone

33 · G. Tapia

Our number · orlando city sc winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Orlando City SC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · orlando city sc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orlando City SC win	44%	46%	−1
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Columbus Crew win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Both teams to score	67%	69%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	85%	0
Over 3.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Orlando City SC or draw	68%	70%	−2
Orlando City SC clean sheet	21%	–	–
Columbus Crew clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.8 4.7 4.0 2.1 1 5.6 9.9 7.3 3.8 2 5.6 8.7 6.8 3.5 3 3.5 5.4 4.2 2.2 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orlando City SC down, Columbus Crew across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 3.75 goals a meeting; 7 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orlando City SC at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Columbus Crew away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Orlando City SC, 1.57 for Columbus Crew. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 12

~~Both scored~~9 of 12

~~Last meetings~~COL 1–1 ORL · ORL 1–1 COL · COL 1–3 ORL · COL 4–3 ORL

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

ORLANDO CITY SC

DWWWLL3–3 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 2–4 · 2–4

COLUMBUS CREW

LWLLWW1–3 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21