New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said New York Red Bulls win at 51%.
2. 1′KICK-OFF New York Red Bulls v Toronto FC
3. 2′Little has changed for our model: New York Red Bulls 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
4. 4′We said New York Red Bulls at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–23–50
5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' New York Red Bulls 0–1 Toronto FC
6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' New York Red Bulls win: 51% at kick-off, 28% now
7. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Toronto FC win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was New York Red Bulls win 28%)
8. 5′Toronto FC find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 27–23–50
9. 15′We said New York Red Bulls at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–51
10. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' New York Red Bulls win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
11. 30′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Toronto FC · On: Jackson Gilman · Off: Kobe Franklin
12. 31′We said New York Red Bulls at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–55
13. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 19–25–55
14. 42′New York Red Bulls have had 9 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 16–26–58
15. 45′We said New York Red Bulls at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
16. 45′SECOND HALF New York Red Bulls 0–1 Toronto FC
17. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' New York Red Bulls · On: Emil Forsberg · Off: Adri Mehmeti
18. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' New York Red Bulls · On: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · Off: Cade Cowell
19. 48′HALF-TIME New York Red Bulls 0–1 Toronto FC
20. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' New York Red Bulls win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
21. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Zane Monlouis · Toronto FC
22. 59′We said New York Red Bulls at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
23. 64′12 shots for New York Red Bulls, 3 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 7–24–69
24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' New York Red Bulls · On: Jorge Ruvalcaba · Off: Cameron Harper
25. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' New York Red Bulls · On: Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty · Off: Dylan Nealis
26. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Lewis Morgan · Toronto FC
27. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Toronto FC · On: Derrick Etienne Jr. · Off: Theo Corbeanu
28. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Toronto FC · On: Dániel Sallói · Off: Djordje Mihailovic
29. 74′We said New York Red Bulls at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–19–78
30. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' New York Red Bulls · On: Pedro Castro · Off: Justin Che
31. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' New York Red Bulls win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
32. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC
33. 85′Dániel Sallói scores for Toronto FC on 82′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–99
34. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Toronto FC · On: Richard Chukwu · Off: Josh Sargent Corrected
35. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Toronto FC · On: Alonso · Off: Lewis Morgan Corrected
36. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Derrick Etienne Jr. · Toronto FC
37. 89′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–94
38. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' New York Red Bulls 1–2 Toronto FC
39. 90′0–2 at the end. Our 51% on New York Red Bulls misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
40. 90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' New York Red Bulls
41. FTFULL TIME New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC
42. FTNew York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC · New York Red Bulls win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.